The explosion on the Crimean bridge: A 🧵 #CrimeanBridge
The #Kremlin's first reaction is rather expected - downplaying the event in the media, setting up all sorts of commissions, launching criminal proceedings...
But everyone is waiting for #Putin's reaction: after all, the strike on the bridge was considered one of the red lines, crossing which could lead to a "worst-case scenario" - an angry reaction, up to and including nuclear retaliation.
However, experience has shown that (1) Putin always reacts with a delay (until he is up to speed, gets all the reports, consults with others...), and…
(2) Putin "swallows" failures in war, not always reacting violently, and often even trying to pretend that nothing much has happened. That is, the logic of "another terrorist act - bad, but expected".
The exception is the retreat in the Kharkiv region, to which Russia responded with annexation and mobilisation.
On that basis, I dare suggest that Putin personally might, as much as it may seem offensive to him, treat the strike as something predictable that could have happened as it did.
If a missile had flown in and smashed the bridge so that it could not be repaired, so that it would have to be rebuilt, then yes - a turning point.
In this case it would be considered as a sign that the 'enemy' has obtained the capacities which change the nature of the conflict and would oblige Russia to retaliate. The explosion of a truck is not such a case.
Against the backdrop of all this, one big "but" appears: Putin's declining confidence in the army and the intensification of contacts with critics of the army. So there could still be a reaction. We shall see.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
