Dear friends, today we're making our year-end Bulletin, a special #Christmas issue, available to everyone for free – no subscription needed. This edition delves into our analysis of the 2024 outlook, covering the #war in #Ukraine, domestic affairs, and the economy. rpolitik.com/the-bulletin/b… 1/ The notion that #Putin has ample time at his disposal is debatable. The forthcoming year is perceived as a crucial period to take action before the West potentially escalates its support for #Ukraine, especially with regards to ramping up ammunition production, which are expected to significantly increase by 2025.

Our New Weekly R.Politik Digest is Out and Now Available – No Subscription Required. Here are the main takeaways. Please sign up here to get access to the Digest. rpolitik.com/the-weekly-dig… Our main focus is on #Putin’s first press conference — the ‘direct line’ — after #Russia launched the war against #Ukraine. While many consider the event senseless and annoying, we have watched it carefully and can reassure you - there are intriguing developments to follow.

R.Politik presents the latest edition of our bulletin, in which we delve into three primary topics:

1️⃣ Drone Attack on the Kremlin.
2️⃣ Prigozhin and the Politicization of Patriots.
3️⃣ Fortum and Uniper Assets Disposal.

rpolitik.com/the-bulletin/b… ◽️ Drone Attack on the #Kremlin: The ease with which the heart of the #Russian state was penetrated raises questions about who was behind the raid, how it was possible to evade air defences, why the Kremlin was quick to admit its vulnerability, and what the response will be.

R.Politik is proud to present the latest edition of our bulletin, in which we delve into three primary topics:

1️⃣ Digital summons for military service.
2️⃣ Re-shuffle in Krasnoyarsk region.
3️⃣ 25-year sentence for Vladimir Kara-Murza.

rpolitik.com/the-bulletin/b… ◽️ Digital Summons for Military Service: This is the key topic of the bulletin, which we examine in detail.

Vladimir Kara-Murza has been sentenced to 25 years in prison. A thread 🧵 on the state of law, political prosecution, and treason in #Russia Such a long term is due to charges of treason: the case was qualified under Article 275 of the Criminal Code due to three public speeches by Kara-Murza criticizing the #Russian authorities — in Lisbon, Helsinki, and Washington.

In her most recent article for @CEIP_Politika, @Stanovaya addresses the issue of the Russian Elites’ dissatisfaction with the war, the effects it is having on Russia, and Putin in general and what this could mean for them and the government. A thread 🧵 carnegieendowment.org/politika/89480 The leaked recording of a conversation between alleged #Russian elites has sparked interest in the hidden dissatisfaction with the state of affairs in #Russia, including the war in Ukraine.

Regarding the explosion in #Prigozhin's cafe and the death of #Tatarsky, enough is already known: anti-war activist Darya Trepova, who allegedly claimed to be working for "Ukrainian journalists" and planned to emigrate, carried out the task – 1/ she brought a statuette to event Z, where one of the most famous pro-war bloggers performed. It cannot be excluded that she did not know about the bomb, although she probably consider that option. 2/

Evan Gershkovich, a correspondent for @WSJ - Wall Street Journal - who has been living in Moscow for six years, has been detained in Yekaterinburg on suspicion of espionage. An important Thread 🧵 @evangershkovich The #FSB believes that the journalist "was collecting information on behalf of the United States about one of the enterprises of the Russian military-industrial complex, which constitutes a state secret."

The @TheStudyofWar reported yesterday on a recent discussion in Russian media concerning an alleged "leak" about a Russian Security Council meeting. A thread 🧵 understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r… According to the leak, Nikolai Patrushev informed #Putin of the reasons for the security services to "neutralize" the #Wagner Group.

Today's address from #Putin reveals a political challenge that he will soon have to face. Putin himself has started this war, dragging the whole country into it, but for a year now he has been dodging the necessity to explain how to win. 1/8 All his recent speeches, often long, detailed, and covering many things, do not convey even the slightest bit of clarity. This is not because he doesn't know, but because he doesn't consider it necessary to explain himself (doing so would show his hand). 2/8

#Prigozhin’s most recent appeal speaks volumes. In my opinion: A short thread 🧵 t.me/concordgroup_o… 📌 #Putin's appointment of Gerasimov as commander of the SVO was part of his broader political decision to streamline the military hierarchy, which drastically reduced #Wagner's autonomy and seriously changed Prigozhin's relationship with state agencies.

Right now everyone is discussing whether there will be a new Russian offensive. In my opinion, this is not the main question. Rather, the main question is whether the war should end quickly or drag on. In its latest report, the @RANDCorporation wrote (rand.org/pubs/perspecti…) that "U.S. interests would be best served by avoiding a protracted conflict.”

In just one year, the #Russian authorities have greatly evolved in their tactics against everything that it deems 'discontent.’ The previous policy was based on forcing the "dissenters" (including the critical media) to play by systemic rules. A short 🧵 on shutting down dissent. Being critical threatened to become too expensive - to be a foreign agent costs a lot, for example. Now, anything that doesn't minimally fit into the logic of what is politically admissible (and what is admissible has shrunk to the microscopic) is simply forbidden.

Concerning the reshuffle in the military command: Since everyone is asking for comments, I will share a few preliminary thoughts. A thread 🧵 What is interesting at the moment is that everyone seems to be in shock: #Prigozhin's people, military correspondents, and the military. A great many knowledgeable people seem to not get the gist of this decision either, which suggests that it is a situational and sudden move.

R.Politik is pleased to present its first bulletin of 2023. We have focused on three main topics:

1️⃣ Christmas 'ceasefire'.
2️⃣ Medvedev’s political games.
3️⃣ Putin and the Armed Forces.

In this EDITION: rpolitik.com/the-bulletin/b… ◽️The Christmas 'ceasefire'. We explain #Putin’s logic behind he decision to announce a 36-hour truce in #Ukraine, look closer into the reaction of the patriotic camp and how the president has to balance between two approaches - strategic one and situational.

Now this is extremely interesting: The governor of Kursk completed a basic training course with #Wagner PMC. Roman Starovoit spent the first week of January in the training camp, as he said on his Telegram channel. This is one of the main mechanisms for #Prigozhin to fit in with the elite. Prigozhin, as we have said before, is a figure without any official status, no official financial or administrative resources.

Three features of the situation at the beginning of 2023. A short thread 🧵 on the near future of #Russianpolitics 1. #Putin's dependence on the #Russian military has sharply increased. At the same time, the military itself is completely "subjugated" to the political leadership and does not have subjectivity, which means that we should not expect it to try to influence the president.

To better understand the Christmas truce, we need to distinguish between the two approaches that are guiding #Putin at the same time. The first is strategic: according to him, #Ukraine must be forced to surrender, whether that's in six months or in two years, it’s only a matter of time...

#Putin's Christmas #ceasefire, which was announced today, fits well with his logic, in which #Russia acts on the good side of history and fights for justice. This is of course how he understands it. 1/4 But, moreover, it is also partly a consequence of Ukraine destroying the technical college in Makiivka on New Year's Eve, which resulted in dozens or hundreds of Russian casualties, most of which were recently mobilised. 2/4

For R.Politik’s last tweet of the year, we would like to offer some final thoughts on the difficulties of 2022, the war in Ukraine, and the future development of Russian politics. When summing up 2022, many people stick to stark adjectives, calling the year monstrously terrible or similar. The war has caused emotional shock, pain and a sharp sense of irreparable loss.

Some observations on Putin's recent speeches, especially his conversation with journalists on 22 December. A longer thread this #ChristmasEve on #Putin’s interpretation of the #UkraineWar 📌Over the past three months, fatigue has clearly accumulated, optimism has noticeably disappeared, and discouragement has come in its place. No anxiety yet, but sadness and disappointment.