Thread by @EthanOfHouseK

I've updated our Labor-vs-Coalition 2-party-preferred (2pp) calculator with data from the 2022 federal election!

It converts a set of first-preference votes into a 2pp estimate, and gives you some idea of the uncertainty. #auspol #ausvotes #auspseph

armariuminterreta.com/projects/austr…

Some polls - like the #ResolvePM released today - don't provide 2pp estimates, so it's unclear who's leading and by how much from the vote estimates published.

armariuminterreta.com/projects/austr…

With this tool, we can see that the poll would result in a Labor landslide at an election,

approximately equal to 1943 in terms of Labor's win on the 2-party vote.

Additionally, we can also see that even if the preference flows shift against Labor, it's very unlikely that they'd change enough to make this anything other than a large Labor victory.

I've added a feature which allows you to model what a set of first-preference votes would look like using preference flows from past #ausvotes (2013, 2016, 2019 in addition to 2022)! #auspol #auspseph

armariuminterreta.com/projects/austr…

For example, Labor would've done ~0.9% worse against the Coalition, had they won the same votes as in 2022, but received 2019 pref flows. #auspol

armariuminterreta.com/projects/austr…

It also shows you the pref flow of each minor party/grouping for the election you select as well as the 2022 election.

armariuminterreta.com/projects/austr…

You can see that this is because, across all minor parties/groupings, Labor did better on preferences in 2022 than in 2019.

However, 2019 was an unusually bad election for Labor in terms of preference flows (on a modern election).

Labor would've done about the same in 2013 (51.9) and 2016 (52.2) as they did in 2022 (52.1) with the same set of primary votes.

Exploring the preference flows, you can see that this is because even though Labor did worse on preferences from Greens/Others voters, they did better on preferences from One Nation/Palmer voters at those elections.