Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
@althecat
Oct 16, 2022 • 8 tweets • 7 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
#ExremeWeather #ClimateChange continuing event coverage initiation.

Vietnam has just seen landfall of a huge Tropical Storm - and now three more cyclones are forecast to follow the same path. The first being #Nemeng. Another slow wet giant storm. Image
Yesterday Typhoon #Sonca made landfall in Vietnam as a Tropical Storm - the 25th named storm of 2022. #Sonca was a huge slow moving wet behemoth like #Ian and #Julia (ATL). This characteristic has been a pattern with many post equinox nth. hemisphere storms. Image
#Sonca has also reportedly caused 4 fatalities already - but the event has only just finished.
But what is inthe forecast is potentially a lot worse for the Gulf of Tonkin area. The GFS long range model is forecasting two more tropical storms/typhoons to follow the same path as #Neneng #NenengPH aka #Nesat
The animation above shows 16 days of IWVT (Integrated Water Vapour Transport) this animation shows the raw Precipitatable data forecast.
IMPORTANT QUALIFICATION: Beyond five days simulation accuracy is not that great in complex situations like this involving massive amounts of atmospheric water - and the 2nd two storms at present exist only in the model at the moment & could take different paths or not form.
However the situation does look very dangerous - and deserves a close watch. The second and third storms are currently expected to be forming around the time that #NenangPH/#NenengPH/#Nesat is making landall in Vietnam on October 24. Image
This is the latest rainfall solution from the @NOAA GFS3 model.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Alastair Thompson

Alastair Thompson Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @althecat

Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Sep 30
As we enter a moment of reflection following the death of Nasrallah, the impetus of the peace effort to resolve this crisis has now moved to the Arab States and the Gulf Cooperation Council.

The second major player in this new phase of this conflict resolution issue is the United Nations, which is - thanks to this year old war against mostly civilians - now facing an unprecedented crisis.

A crisis in global confidence.

It is apparent to anyone or nation- who has eyes to see or ears to listen - clear that the U.N. System has completely failed. And as a result the UN System itself is now on trial.

In other words. The Post WWII Western Nation dominated « Rules Based Order » is now itself on trial in the global court of public opinion.

In Gaza, and Lebanon, and now in New York it has very clearly failed.
(/1 of several) VIDEO THREAD:

Why does the Israel lobby still exist? with Ilan Pappé via @YouTube

History - this @ Electronic Intifada interview with preeminent 20th and 21st Century Israeli Conflics Historian Ilan Pappé is 2 months old , but it remains super relevant as a starting point. Patience is required but it is well worth it.

It focuses on the role of the Israeli Lobbies, particularly in the UK and the U.S. and includes specific exemplar discussions of on
- Senator Fullbright vs the U.S. Israel Lobby I.e. AIPAC
- Jeremy Corbyn vs The UK Israel Lobby (2017 to 2019)
(/2) The Looming Catastrophe in the Middle East (w/ Gideon Levy) | Chris Hedges Interview.

Gideon Levy’s discussion here is contemporaneous and also based on a new book. His prognosis of the corrupt state of Israeli politics and the international response is not at all positive.

via @YouTube
Read 21 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Sep 20
Interesting clear eyed commentary as always from Mearshiemer.

Following the Israeli’s latest escalation the Israelis are now in a stalemate situation.

Prof. John Mearsheimer : Is Israel on the Brink? via @YouTubeyoutube.com/live/juNa3vgXI…
I.E. they have now run out of options. And Netanyahu is now in a bind.

If Netanyahu / Israel has more tricks up its sleeve to address this remains to be seen.

But the overall construction here following Nasrallah’s remarks is pretty clear and it looks like Israel is not in a position to invade Lebanon. If they were they would have done so yesterday or the day before.
This is helpful to the Biden Administration I’d argue.

Hezbollah’s unambiguous response saying that they will only stop attacks on the northern front if there is a ceasefire in Gaza is Chrystal clear.

And this is what the American Administration also wants.
Read 6 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Sep 19
So Iran now says there will be a joint response to the Lebanon situation from the « Axis of Resistance »

It sounds however like this will not be overly escalatory in order to avoid an all out war.

🔴 Al Jazeera English | Live via @YouTubeyoutube.com/live/gCNeDWCI0…
So perhaps we will see something more demonstrative. Firing missiles into the sea or the desert would be unfortunate for the fishes and camels. But it may allow the Axis to make their point without leading to a regional war that could so easily spiral completely out of control. /2
Alternatively, far better, and perhaps more effective as a prelude would be a united Arabic diplomatic response with a new peace proposal.

The U.S. is clocked out for the election and such a move could potentially lower the temperature and assist with the ultimate goal. /3
Read 6 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Sep 17
The 538 poll of polls is a complete disaster for the GOP at this point.

Biden’s desire for U.S. Supreme Court reform under Kamala is now a theoretical possibility. Previously it was a pipe dream.



Image
Image
Image
Image
1/2

National Harris vs Trump Polls (reverse chronological order)

note: He’s only ahead in one poll since September 11th (so FOX’s desperate flag hugging effort had zero impact) and in that one poll only by 2 points whereas Harris has several 4-5 point margins.

Image
Image
Image
2/2

And if you go back to late August he’s only ahead in four polls. In three of them by 1 point and the other by just 2. All of them statistical ties.

Image
Image
Image
Read 6 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Sep 11
Went looking at @FoxNews to see how they were coping with the shocking fail by Trump last night.

The show today has the vibes of a flag hugging wake.

This is far from surprising as the 9/11 commemorations are the backdrop of the day. But what’s surprising is how little Fox has.

Image
Image
Image
But if @JDVance thinks dissing @taylorswift13 is going to help the GOP he’s being a bit daft.

I look forward to this becoming a meme given that « childless cat ladies » is probably what he is best known for. npr.org/2024/07/29/nx-…
Image
@JDVance @taylorswift13 Sort of akin to punching yourself figuratively in the face. But it should get him attention - which is probably his calculus.
Read 6 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Aug 25
🔴 Al Jazeera English | Live via @YouTube

Frankly the only way I can think of to interpret this is that Israel is seeking to draw the U.S. Armada which is currently approaching Israel to establish a defensive shield over Israel into a wider war.

Yesterday was the Jewish Shabbat. Today is the Christian Sabbath. This is Netanyahu’s last stand, yet another attempt to start a regional war with the objective of dragging the U.S. into the war with Iran that he has been trying to engineer for the last few months.

He knows that a Kamala Harris Presidency will possibly be less cautious. He is concerned that a progressive administration in the White House will not tolerate his approach to Israeli security, the war he is currently waging and the long-term extremist right wing objective of driving all Palestinians out of Israel.

But to secure the space for this outcome he Israel needs a regional war with U.S. involvement to degrade Hezbollah and Iranian military capacity.

In the short term here and now he needs to blow up the talks in Cairo which are now on the threshold it seems of delivering a ceasefire agreement.

All parties to this conflict and the international community more broadly need to continue to calibrate their responses to not give him what he wants.

This morning’s events should be allowed to die down, and absent a major escalation by Hezbollah and Iran they should do so readily.

The world know knows who is responsible for continuing this horror show. The U.S. and Israel.

This morning when the U.S. wakes up it should be helped to see once again the stark reality here. That Israel under Netanyahu has become a rogue state, threatening the peace of the entire Middle East, and threatening to drag U.S. airmen and soldiers into a war that no-one sane in either the U.S., Europe, or indeed anyone on the planet wants.

Maintaining self control at this moment is therefore vital. And Netanyahu will then lose. He will not get his regional war and Israel will have to agree to a ceasefire.youtube.com/live/gCNeDWCI0…
Meanwhile…

/2 Israeli bombardments in Gaza kill several as polio vaccination continues... … via @YouTube
/3 & perhaps most significantly a mass mobilisation for a ceasefire has now become a General Strike.



« A major nationwide strike is now underway across Israel.

The largest trade union says it wants to pressure the government of Benjamin Netanyahu into signing a Gaza ceasefire and captive release deal with Hamas.
The action was called after the bodies of six Israeli captives were recovered from a tunnel in southern Gaza on Saturday.

Hamas has blamed Israeli air strikes for the deaths of those six captives whose bodies were recovered on Saturday.
Israel says they were found with bullet wounds.

Dozens of people attended a vigil for one of the six, Israeli-American Hersh Goldberg-Polin.

Israeli finance minister Bezalel Smotrich is trying to halt the general strike.
He's asked the attorney general to impose a ban - saying the industrial action will have significant economic consequences.

Opposition leader Yair Lapid has called for a complete government shutdown.

Udi Goren, a member of the Hostages and Missing Families Forum, spoke to Al Jazeera from the Israeli Knesset in West Jerusalem, where the group has been speaking to parliament members amid an ongoing general strike calling on Netanyahu to reach a deal with Hamas for the release of the remaining captives. »
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(