Share this page!

Maybe Scrolly?
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Twitter logo
Oct 16 • 8 tweets • 7 min read
#ExremeWeather #ClimateChange continuing event coverage initiation.

Vietnam has just seen landfall of a huge Tropical Storm - and now three more cyclones are forecast to follow the same path. The first being #Nemeng. Another slow wet giant storm. Image
Yesterday Typhoon #Sonca made landfall in Vietnam as a Tropical Storm - the 25th named storm of 2022. #Sonca was a huge slow moving wet behemoth like #Ian and #Julia (ATL). This characteristic has been a pattern with many post equinox nth. hemisphere storms. Image
#Sonca has also reportedly caused 4 fatalities already - but the event has only just finished.
But what is inthe forecast is potentially a lot worse for the Gulf of Tonkin area. The GFS long range model is forecasting two more tropical storms/typhoons to follow the same path as #Neneng #NenengPH aka #Nesat
The animation above shows 16 days of IWVT (Integrated Water Vapour Transport) this animation shows the raw Precipitatable data forecast.
IMPORTANT QUALIFICATION: Beyond five days simulation accuracy is not that great in complex situations like this involving massive amounts of atmospheric water - and the 2nd two storms at present exist only in the model at the moment & could take different paths or not form.
However the situation does look very dangerous - and deserves a close watch. The second and third storms are currently expected to be forming around the time that #NenangPH/#NenengPH/#Nesat is making landall in Vietnam on October 24. Image
This is the latest rainfall solution from the @NOAA GFS3 model.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Alastair Thompson

Alastair Thompson Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @althecat

Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Oct 18
[Ongoing #Vietnam #SthChina #ExtremeWeather Update thread Typhoon #NenengPH]

Image source @NASA #WorldView. [link >> worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=64.78263600…] Image
Presently a Cat 2 Typhoon #Nesat/#NenengPH is another massive late season storm forecast to make landfall on Oct 20th in the Gulf of Tonkin south of Hanoi and weaken to a Tropical Storm before doing so. the South China Island of Hainan will likely receive the worst of the storm. Image
Unfortunately the @zoom_earth Hinmawari Satellite imagery is not available. But from the weather radar data we can see that intense rain bands are now coming ashore on the east coast of Hainan, possibly accompanied by hurricane force winds. Image
Read 11 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Oct 18
[#CentralAmerica #ExtremeWeather #ClimateChangeNOW update THREAD (ongoing coverage - initiated October 2 - storms #Julia #Karl]

With #Karl now dissapated the next disturbance has now been designated by @NHC_Atlantic. ImageImageImage
The situation remains complex and unpredictable with many significant variables at play which could alter the outcome. The latest complete GFS run shows the next hurricane landfalling in Mexico 24 Oct. & remnants forming into a Gulf cyclone on 26 Oct.
The latest GFS run (incomplete) does not see the storm reforming into a tropical storm in the Gulf, but the synoptic scenario here - with this storm forming and crossing Mexico has been fairly stable for some time - as indicated in previous #KARL #TSKarl updates.
Read 14 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Oct 18
[#ExtremeWeather #ClimateChangeNow coverage initiation THREAD].
The next potentially devastating northern hemisphere hurrricane candidate #92B has now been designated. ImageImageImageImage
The potential new storm - which is modeled to head north into the Bay of Bengal in coming days and make - has been in global simulation models for several days. This is the latest GFS3 IWVT model run.
#Invest92b #92b GFS3 Model 16 day forecast of precipititable water (PWAT)

With a series of West Pacific tropical storms & typhoons - including #NenengPH [which you can see arriving in Vietnam shortly on upper right] - the Nth. Indian ocean is flooded with water vapour.
Read 7 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Oct 17
With respect, the obstacle to peace is not Eritrean forces who have now withdrawn to Badme and Humera if they were ever in Tigray. The obstacle is TPLF and that is who @antonioguterres ought to be addressing the GoE is ready for a ceasefire and talks.
It is unfortunate that the UNSG has chosen, presumably for political reasons to repeat the TPLF’s age old propaganda talking point, and that as a result 100 million plus Ethiopians will likely see this statement as a cop-out.
This is true. But the obstacle to peace talks has always been the TPLF, who started this war and whose infiltration of and coddling by UN, US and EU diplomats has resulted in their refusing to engage in a peace process for very nearly two years.
Read 8 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Oct 16
No the IC does not have a choice to make. You have a choice to make. Whether to sue for peace or not. Unfortunately this evenings statement is unclear.

This statement clearly undermines what you said in the previous statement. Which was different.

You need to make up your mind. Image
To spell this out.

"The IC has a choice to make"

&

"We also call on the IC to...."

Are not the same. Words matter. Also the party you are negotiating with is not the IC. It is the legitimate democratically elected and constituted Govt. of Ethiopia.
The assumption that anyone with a clue about this war and TPLF will make from this dissembling is:You are on the threshold of being defeated and you are yet again seeking someone to rescue you.

This will not happen. What can happen is a cessation of hostilities & talks.
Read 5 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Oct 16
#ExtremeWeather #ClimateChangeNOW update THREAD (ongoing coverage)

While Tropical Storm #Karl is finished, the #ExtremeWeather event associated with #HurricaneJulia and #TSKarl is not yet over.
In the animation above you can see the end of #TSKarl #Karl as it, like its parent storm #HurricaneJulia was pushed through the Tehuantepec wind gap into the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the Pacific. Image
This animation pics up the story over southern Mexico's Pacific coast this afternoon and evening and shows several convective bursts over land. The one at the end on the bottom left hand side is directly over Acapulco.
Read 13 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Send Email!

Email the whole thread instead of just a link!

Separate emails with commas

:(