#Poland & #Korea signed the agreement today:
Poland will purchase ~ 300 Korean #Chunmoo MLRS.
(Separately, Poland will also procure ~ 200 #HIMARS, down from an initial goal of 500, taking account of US manufacturing capacity & needs of other nations, incl. Ukraine)
Polish ministers had planned 2 days in Korea to review other systems POL is buying & sign the agreement for the Chunmoo.
Acc. to Korean media (machine translation), China blocked its airspace to disrupt the visit - shifting the ceremony to Warsaw.
Polish DefMin, 13/10:
"Chunmoo ... have similar capabilities as ... HIMARS. They can hit targets up to 300 kilometers away. Another argument ... is the delivery time. The first Chunmoo units are to be in Poland as early as next year ... first battalion op ready by end 2023"
3-9
"In addition to the launcher, we will acquire a very large number of missiles, both precise destruction at a distance of up to 70 km, as well as tactical missiles with a range of about 300 km"
4-9
"As in the case of other Korean contracts, we want to include our armaments industry in cooperation as much as possible. We assume full integration with the Polish Combat Management System Topaz and Jelcz chassis..."
5-9
"...but also the acquisition of production, service and modernization capacities by Polish plants. What is also worth emphasizing, the Korean side will provide us with the necessary know-how for the production of missiles"
6-9
"We want to diversify ... so effective weapons reach us as soon as possible. The Americans, understandably, are currently focused on supporting Ukrainian troops, HIMARS launchers are being handed over"
7-9
"After all, this is a war that concerns all of us and the victory of Ukraine is now a priority ... even an arms giant like the U.S. has its production limitations. We decided to divide the order for HIMARS into stages"
8-9
"We will have both HIMARS and Chunmoo. This is a synergistic combination because both systems can work together"
Earlier, I tweeted about Russian sabotage in our nations. I opened with the story of the undersea cable between Orkney and Shetland. It appears this *could* have been accidentally caused by a fishing vessel.
Be that as it may, note:
-A cable to the Faroe Islands was also damaged a few days ago, ostensibly by a fishing vessel according to local authorities
-The same authorities appear to believe the new incident is similar
-Last year, Norwegian cables were damaged by fishing vessels. Russian ones
2-4
-Fishing vessels can cause such accidents
- But they can be weaponized for that purpose, as the Norway case illustrates
-There is a low probability that 2 highly similar accidents happened within a few days, cutting cables btw Orkney and Shetland, and btw Shetland and Faroe
3-4
This new phase of the war, which also targets EU and NATO nations directly, seems to have started on 8 Oct. Then, in Germany, railway cables were deliberately cut to disrupt services.
Russia is targeting Critical Infrastructure, e.g., power plants, the electricity grid, transport systems, comm. systems.
So far against NATO Allies: railway cables in Germany, undersea cables in the UK + aggressive scouting for targets in Norway.
Poland looking to procure > 200 HIMARS and > 300 Korean K239 Chunmoo rocket artillery systems - rather than the previous interest in getting 500 HIMARS.
Koreans agreed to tech transfer.
Deliveries to be spread over 2023-2030.
Failing in the invasion of another state is never a vital interest and should never be construed by others as such. If a leader appears to think that way, it is a deception or a delusion that will be cured through defeat.
Putin has an evident sense of ambition and entitlement, believing Ukraine & Belarus are rightly his and rightly Russia's.
But construing the coveting of those nations as "vital" is just another way of claiming they are "existential", i.e., objectively tied to survival.
2-15
Putin does not believe having those lands is vital, or existential, or necessary for survival. Counterfactual analysis is helpful here. Were he to view those lands in that way, we would have had today's war 20 years ago, with nuclear weapons.
2-8 Putin is adaptable in his tactics, with a bias towards doubling down & choosing the more aggressive options (agree) which shuts off moderate courses of action (partly disagree).
Hill cites the cornered rat story, which I recommend should be dismissed as Chekist legend.
3-8 Putin still "adamant on his goal of removing Ukraine from the map and from global affairs" - absolutely.
That he sees this as "full-on war with the West" I strongly disagree. Putin knows the West could do *a lot* more to hurt him, esp. militarily.
1-17
A recent tweet by Joshua Landis epitomizes a certain kind of flawed and dishonest take on #Crimea, which typically involves a worrying disregard for elementary facts and for essential principles of International Law.
A review of some of the key issues follows.
2-17
The 1954 argument is usually a tell that someone is deliberately following Kremlin speaking notes, but assuming the person's use of it is merely due to ignorance and to having consulted the wrong sorts of people, let's look at it briefly.
3-17
It is irrelevant how or when territories were moved around within the USSR, prior to 1991. What matters is International Law.
Russia, and all other members of the UN, recognized Ukraine as an independent sovereign state with the borders it had in 1991, including Crimea.