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Oct 21 • 3 tweets • 2 min read
#india $IBN #niftybank as the patrons drink another glass of champagne unbeknownst of the impending doom. Look at the current falling import cover whilst the situation seems relatively similar to 2011-2013 when INR fell 28%. Jeffries says it isn’t exactly the same because of ImageImageImage
Stronger govt etc but RBI games as per
Would indicate that Current acc deficit will balloon precipitously. At a time of peak valuations esp relative to other EM when foreigners are already significantly o/w and ill be watching how this all unfolds. Image

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More from @contrarian8888

contrarian 8888 Profile picture
Oct 21
#india $INDA $IBN. H/t @PauloMacro for flagging. theemergingmarketsinvestor.com/em-expected-re…
Notice The cape for india at 29x vs china at 9x. I know that cape isnt a great timing tool but given sentiment on india is on the moon & China is on the gutter, valns dispersion immense and India potentially having a currency crisis (@TheFactFindr )as i flagged in an earlier Image
Tweet id bet my 2 cents that INDIA will substantially lag China’s performance over the next few years. At best INDIA Is DEAD MONEY. BEST case india substantially derates -and as @PauloMacro mentioned in an earlier tweet- first EM managers hid in china before XI blew up tech
Read 4 tweets
contrarian 8888 Profile picture
Oct 19
$RIG at today’s Grant conference Darren Mauphin from Pilgrim made some points on the offshore sector. 1. This summer a couple of Offshore names asked about contract extensions at the shipyards and the shipyards said we never ever want to work with you guys again- capacity is
Going to take a hell of a long time to come back. 2 EV of the sector at peak last time was 164B (2007) today its 19b. Heck SPACEX which does nothing for u (unlike offshore which is servicing a real need like finding oil) has a higher EV than the combined Offshore sector.
Over the past 8 years 50% of the capacity has been scrapped and taken out. Capacity is essentially back to the lows seen in 2004. (It doubled 04-14 and now back down to the lows again with the -50% scrapping of capacity).
Read 4 tweets
contrarian 8888 Profile picture
Oct 18
$IBN #banknifty #india This is my second part tweet on Indian banks (pls see tweet below if u missed it). We all know who the 2nd richest person in the world is right- Jeff Bezos. NOPE it’s Gautam Adani Who? Yeah exactly his cos trade at an absurd 200-400x earnings and are
Highly levered bloomberg.com/opinion/articl….
Now I discussed in first Indian bank tweet that foreigners are super o/w the Indian financials. What if this guys fortune is just an immense Ponzi scheme and the banks are super exposed? I mean isnt it weird that the 2nd richest person in the world came out of nowhere? Hmmm.
Read 9 tweets
contrarian 8888 Profile picture
Oct 18
$KWEB #china $FXI $IBN. Interesting to see that 90% of chinese A share profit alerts were +VE acc to jpm. In addition we see
Fund managers in china investing in their own funds (adding skin to the game at a time when sentiment is extremely -ve).
Chinese equities are at 30 year support and yet sentiment is in the toilet. Contrast this with where consensus is hiding- INDIA where the RBI is behind the curve, struggling with food and energy
Read 6 tweets
contrarian 8888 Profile picture
Oct 15
#india $IBN I've always seeked out opportunities where the consensus is convinced of something and things may change. My questioning nasdaq in Nov 2021 and recommending $Tqqq puts got me a lot of ire with folks saying C8888 stick to something u know about like energy and not tech
Needless to say many of my many shorts this year $arkk $tsla $aapl $snow $cvna $nvda etc have been very beneficial to a very strong year with over 1/2 my returns ytd coming from the short side ($btu making up the rest). My piece de resistance was recommending buying $aapl puts
Read 25 tweets
contrarian 8888 Profile picture
Oct 4
$KWEB $BLK. I had a good call during the spring buying Kweb calls. I dumped them a month or 2 later and have not been involved until this am. It’s pretty clear with the leadership council not wearing masks and from tweets ive sent out that Sing tourism agency was told to expect
Huge influx of chinese tourists that 0 covid may end post the CCP meetings. Well im already mega long oil (thru $panr and $BTU) but this chart is so juicy and sentiment is in toilet on china.
Against the long, im shorting $BLK. 3 reasons. 1. I think active is going to come back and passive will die- as @hkuppy has been saying repeatedly passive or closet passive (look at the HF performance i tweeted yesterday -18.4% (yeesh), and BLK trades at close to double the comps
Read 4 tweets

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