Thread by @fkronawitter1

1- Checking in on the #Cyclical economy:

Inventories remain bloated and keep growing

2- So new orders continue to fall off a cliff

Chart from Richmond Fed survey - outlook 6 months from now

3- With less business, hiring and wage growth decline, latter from high levels

4- However, prices paid (= business inflation expectations) remain very elevated

5- Summary: Outlook for cyclical industries frankly could not be worse at this point

- Much weaker demand ahead
- Prices pressures high/growing
- Growing inventories mean no end in sight

End.