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Nov 1 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
#Russia_CentralAsia: Fleeing Western sanctions, some 700,000 Russians opened banks in Uzbekistan, only 35,000 of them continue to live there. Apparently another 35,000 Russians arrived as "credit card tourists" looking to get into the Uzbek banking system for internationally⤵️
backed payment cards (after Mir cards were banned in the West and also among many Russia's closest allies). In September-October alone, VTB approved 7,000 transfers to Russia's "friendly" countries, including Uzbekistan (worth $34 million).⤵️
In all, some 318,000 Russians have entered Uzbekistan since the start of the Russian war.
vedomosti.ru/finance/news/2…

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More from @DionisCenusa

Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Nov 1
#Ukraine: Macron and Zelensky had a telephone conversation in which they agreed on the following aspects: 1) On December 13, France will host an international donor conference in Paris to rally support for Ukraine's civil resilience (in November, Paris will organize⤵️
the Moldova Support Platform with donor participation for Ukraine's neighbor); 2) On December 12, Macron agreed to mobilize the French business community for⤵️
a Franco-Ukrainian bilateral event, likely to discuss opportunities for Ukraine's post-war repair (Poland and the US are already involved in similar discussions). elysee.fr/emmanuel-macro…
Read 4 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Nov 1
#China: The US is apparently advocating the extension of applied expert control over Russia to China as well. If this were to happen, the target would primarily be semiconductors and other critical goods used for the military industry. Germany, France and the Netherlands seem⤵️
to be among the main opponents. Export control is considered to be working in Russia, as a result of technological and other sectoral sanctions applied in the last 8 months. Unlike Russia, China is not at any forms of war (energy or economic wars) with the EU and the US ⤵️
over Ukraine. Concomitantly, the US needs other Western allies and an plausible argument to justify bringing in more players in a sanctions campaign against China (that hopes that Germany and others will reject the US proposal).
Read 4 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Nov 1
#Moldova: For the first time in history, the country is establishing a mechanism to monitor (which should be interpreted as implementing) the effects of the extraterritorial sanctions on Moldova. This is based on US sanctions on Moldovan fugitives Shor and Plahotniuc and their⤵️
involvement in Russian malign influence: 1) Banks and other entities will report suspicious transactions involving Shor (and his group) and Plahotniuc, and all people linked to them. 2) The list of these “associated persons” (with Shor and Plahotniuc) will be established by⤵️
the Information and Security Service. There are no established criteria that generate risks of superficial interpretation and arbitrariness. Furthermore, the people suspected to have links with Shor or Plahotniuc are not supposed to have means to challenge the decision to be⤵️
Read 7 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Nov 1
#Ukraine: The newly elected president of Brazil, Lula, made a series of statements about the Russian war vs. peace negotiations. Lula’s views reflect what others in the Global South are thinking (looking at reality as it is not as it should be): ⤵️
1) "War avoidance” at any cost: The idea that peace (with trade offs and concessions) it is better that the war is widespread, and this is not just an ideological issue. The implications of the war in Ukraine are global. To some extent, it's a global problem because⤵️
it involves Western sanctions and Russian retaliation/energy weaponization; 2) “Failed Western diplomacy”: the US and the EU are seen as guilty because they support Ukraine, which is capable of defending itself against Russia that is logically prolonging the war.⤵️
Read 8 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Oct 31
#Moldova: More electricity will be purchased from Romania to offset supply from the breakaway region that will not be supplied. In November, Moldova will import energy from three Romanian producers: 1) OMV Petrom (50 MWh); 2) Nuclearelectric (35 MWh); 3) OPCOM (5,530 MWh).⤵️
It appears that no contract was signed with the producer in the breakaway region (Transnistria), revealing a huge deficit of ~ 4,000 MWh. The govt plans to replace by reducing demand (energy saving). Unlike days ago, the Moldovan govt says that Gazprom will deliver only 50%⤵️
of the contracted gas (not 70%), which represents 5.7 million m3. Although the constitutional authorities are not buying electricity from Transnistria, they will still deliver 2.3 million m3 of the Russian-supplied gas to it. The situation is extraordinary:⤵️
Read 12 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Oct 31
#Armenia_Russia: Putin's mediation role did not result in significant breakthroughs on the status of Nagorno-Karabakh. As far as is now known, several points were removed from the draft 15-point document. Putin has thanked Pashinyan and Aliyev for being open to negotiations.
Describing the decisions taken by the EU (due to Macron's facilitation) in the European Political Community regarding the EU civilian mission in Armenia, Putin commented that the EU would make efforts to exclude Russia from all formats related to security in the South Caucasus.⤵️
In reality, it is Armenia that is trying to find efficient alternative security guarantees because Russia's geopolitical relevance is fading. After talks with Pashinyan and Aliyev in Sochi, Putin admitted that nothing was decided on the peace and demarcation negotiations.⤵️
Read 6 tweets

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