How to know that Kari Lake, Abe Hamadeh and Blake Masters are LYING when they tell voters that Trump supposedly won Arizona and it was "stolen" from him (it wasn't, he lost). #AZGov #AZSen #AZSOS
81.74% of Arizona's Voting Age Population (VAP) according to the 2020 Census lived in its two largest Metropolitan Areas - Metro Phoenix and Metro Tucson. Biden won both of these Metro areas.
Even before the Election of 2020, Trump-endorsed candidates did not necessarily do great in Arizona, especially in statewide elections.
Trump might have great support among Republicans in Arizona. But Republicans in 2020 only made up 35.24% of the state's registered voters. Democrats made 32.20% of the registered voters and they grew at a higher pace in 2020 prior to the election.
Trump did very well outside of the largest metro areas in Arizona - a very large part of the state's geography. But also a place where a lot actual fewer people live.
Land doesn't vote.
All these conspiracy theories came out about election machines, "mules," etc.
So why is it that the exit polls, polls that asked actual voters who they voted for after they voted, not processed in any way by voting machines, roughly matched the official outcome of the races?
Same thing in Pima County. People surveyed by exit pollsters said they voted for Biden by roughly the same margin that the official vote count implied.
Look at these various factors among all the states Trump claimed were "stolen" from him. See some similarities?
Trump's party fared poorly in other elections there during his term. Not just the 2020 Presidential election.
I messed up the chain of tweets. Here are the rest.
Very fascinating to look at the Yahoo News polls, which ask respondents the all-important question of which cable news channel they watch. scribd.com/document/60484…
Trump endorsed quote a number of politicians in Arizona who ended up losing. It's not exactly like Trump was ever overwhelmingly popular in Arizona. Among his own party, yes. Among the entire state population - meh.
Trump didn't just suddenly start doing badly in Arizona's largest counties in 2020. He also did WAY worse in 2016 than Mitt Romney did in 2012.
Voter registration also went way up.
Actual human beings who register to vote. And then vote.
To the perpetually aggrieved who constantly aspire to the status of victimhood:
The world doesn’t owe you anything. The world doesn’t owe me anything. It doesn’t owe anybody anything.
Nobody is more special than anybody else. Nobody is entitled to anything by birthright.
You think that because we’re Americans, we’re entitled to the best jobs and the best standard of living? Just because that’s how it’s supposed to be?
We live in a world where there is competition. And there are people all over the world competing with us.
There are people in other countries who, to be honest, are used to working harder than a lot of us. And there are people in other countries who take education much more seriously than we do.
When bad things happen, it’s not necessarily somebody else’s fault.
You can, even now, use your influence and power to improve the world in a different way. It doesn't involve taking sides politically. Just giving people a place to talk about ideas, without running into the most offensive and trashy content, is a big deal.
One of the things most people don't realize is that we're not all that different from each other - regardless of what tribe we think we belong to. People have a lot in common. But the only way people ever learn that is by talking. Getting to know each other.
Being able to talk and trade ideas without being flooded by content from people hurling out racial expletives or making fun of crime victims is something that can potentially make you more money in addition to doing something that the world will appreciate you for.
Vote no matter what the polls say. Even the polls which are done by honest professionals trying to predict what will happen make their predictions based in part on who they think will bother to vote.
The only poll that matters is the votes that get counted. Vote.
Remember that while most pollsters are trying to make good educated guesses, there are very likely pollsters whose motivation is to discourage people from voting.
“Wow. My candidate is down by 10. Why even bother voting?”
An attempt to create a self-fulfilling prophecy.
I am a bit wary of partisan pollsters in general.
I’m extremely wary of partisan pollsters who poll everything every other day and always have similar conclusions.
A lot of the news media doesn’t seem to be wary of anything. They just suck it right up and report on it.