Continuing #LeBronWatch. The @Lakers have now played 7 games. How has #LeBronJames' performance changed our initial forecasts - singhpr.medium.com/when-will-lebr…
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Answers in thread
The possibility of LeBron getting to Kareem's mark by game 49 has gone up. Currently, the most likely range is game 48 to 52, with 80% of the results falling in that range. We are 94% sure that LeBron gets there by game 52. 
There are very small chances that LeBron's quest extends into games 55, 56, or 57. Similarly, a small set of simulations (<2 percent) point to games 44 and 45.
Taking Absences into account the spread is larger. So much so that if LeBron repeats patterns of missing games from the last 3 seasons, there is a 0.2% chance he does not break the record this season.
Want to learn how you can apply these concepts to make forecasts for your #agile teams. Check out @prokanban's Applying #Metrics for #Predictability course prokanban.org/applying-metri…. DM me for more details.
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