The federal deficit this year is projected to fall to $36b from Budget 2022's projection of $53b. Here's the breakdown of what caused the change. #cdnecon#cdnpoli
Hard to be precise, but it looks like the overwhelming majority of the increase in income taxes is due to high oil prices.
Corp income taxes up nearly $23b. That's almost two-thirds of the change. Oil & gas, mining, petroleum products dominate the increase in corp profits.
Interestingly, total GST revenues are projected to come in lower than Budget 2022 expected. I anticipated an increase due to inflation (higher prices --> higher GST payments). Likely due to the slowdown in economic growth currently happening (and reflected in the projections).
Ahhh, GST revenue is going to be higher but they implicitly net out the boosted GST credit within that number. That's shaving 2.5b off of the GST. So absent that policy choice GST revenues would have been ~2b higher.
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Inflation has many concerned, and it's a complex issue. So I'm happy to share some results of work with my colleague, Prof. Sonja Chen: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… Not yet peer-reviewed, but there's some interesting results I'll preview here. 🧵 #cdnecon#cdnpoli
First, it's important to appreciate that rising inflation is accounted for by a few specific items. Had energy and shelter prices, for example, not increased then overall inflation would have been 4.1% in July rather than 7.8%.
More interesting is the spillover effect of energy prices on other goods and services. We find roughly one-quarter of items move up and down strongly with oil prices. And those items account for 60% of the non-energy inflation we're seeing.
Some in AB's Govt are saying the surplus is due to "fiscal discipline".
All govts will spin, of course. That's what politicians do. But this claim is way off. 🧵
Quick note to start: I'm interpreting the claim of "fiscal discipline" as deliberately, and in some case explicitly, setting up a contrast w/ former govt.
Obviously if we spent 500b digging holes and filling them in again we'd have a deficit; so "discipline" has a role.
So the question is whether the current government's spending plans, which were indeed lower than the previous government's, is the reason for the surplus.
Today's high inflation is regressive. This point has been made by many, but I thought some numbers might help. 🧵 #cdnecon
I estimate the effect of price increases on household disposable incomes here 👇. The high rates for May (reported today) are like a nearly 10 percent reduction in the disposable incomes of the lowest income families. Let that sink in a moment.
This is not because lower-income households buy more items w/ big price increases. The reverse is true (owned accommodation, for example).
Here's a set of estimates of the inflation rate for different types of households based only on differences in products purchased.
Inflation pressures are broad-based, to be absolutely clear, but this is worth noting: if shelter and energy prices remained flat since last year, I estimate headline inflation would have been 3.2% in May instead of 7.7%. #cdnecon
This is not to deny the financial pressures that price increases create. But it shows that the biggest pressures are narrowly concentrated. This may matter for policy makers trying to figure out where to direct efforts and to understand what is going on.
Also worth noting, this doesn't account for the spillover effects of rising energy prices on goods and services throughout the economy. This is hard to estimate, but my best attempt is that this may add another 1-1.5 points on top of energy's direct 2.5 point contribution in May.
Price increases are also broad based across many product categories. Approximately two in three items within the CPI saw price increases above 3%.
What's behind the acceleration of inflation? Two years ago, the rate was close to 2% (near the target). The increase to 5% is due to just a few items: groceries, gasoline, home depreciation, fuel. Here's an illustration.
This time last year, Alberta was anticipating an $11b deficit for 2022/23. Now, the government expects a surplus of $511 million ($2.3b excluding contingency).
Massive turnaround. Here's a decomposition of the relevant changes. #ableg
There will be two competing stories out there. Both have elements of truth.
1) The government had little to do with the improvement. It's all oil prices.
2) The government's fiscal/economic policies made today's surplus possible.
High oil prices increase both resource revenues and increase corporate income taxes. That's basically the whole ballgame relative to where Budget 2021 was projecting for 2022/23.