Thread by @AutoVader

Since a few days have passed and thing have "relatively" calmed down, I want to comment on the optics of bringing out APCs in #Lahore Cantt. You all have seen the images go viral on this platform, and some were rightly outraged. 1/n

However, this isn't the first time #PakistanArmy brought out APCs against protesting public. Many years ago, there was a dispute between farmers and the Army over some land in #Okara. That's when this image was shot. For me, personally, it became of the most defining images 2/n

of how the Army behaves in the country. My shock stemmed from the fact that my father commanded 40 AK, which is equipped with TOW mounted APCs for hunting enemy tanks. How could the Army bring out APCs - which are essentially troop carriers - mounted with machine 3/n

guns against unarmed protestors? Well because it could, and it couldn't care less about the optics. Okara farms incident came to my knowledge through the work of @Taimur_Laal who once took a #Lums student delegation to protest there. At the time Taimur was viewed as a 4/n

leftist traitor by the establishment and probably still is. But thankfully we can recognize today that he was raging against the system before it was cool to do so. Thank you @Taimur_Laal. 5/n

Back to optics. It would be wrong to say that the Army doesn't care about optics. It really does. That's why #DGISPR spends so much on propagating it's brand of Army-love and patriotism through collaboration with media, singers, and celebrities. However, it's when 6/n

things get tough, optics go out the window. This is easy to understand: You can do all your image building during peace time, but once bullets start flying no one gives a damn about optics. That's how military minds are wired. So when the protests at #Okara farms became too 7/n

much some genius decided it was OK to send APCs to intimidate protestors. Naturally the public would get scared of a tracked armoured vehicle coming against it. Most civilians won't even be able to tell the difference between an APC and a tank anyway, which will further 8/n

intimidate them. Brilliant move when crushing a rebellion, stupid move when you are facing public protestors. Going back to Lahore protests, there were a million ways to block protestors from entering the Cantt, but there was no reason to send APCs to the checkpoints. 9/n

In the age of social media, someone should have thought that these images will be really bad for optics. Like the Okara farms image, the images from #Lahore cantt will be seared into the memory an entire generation of #Pakistanis. 10/n

So what were the boys really thinking before rolling out APCs in Lahore? Did they really think that these protests which started from CC #Peshawar's house will snowball into a storming of the Bastille? Who knows. Whatever it was one thing is clear, they 11/n

knew the optics would be bad but the way they were reading the situation, it was serious enough not to give a damn about them. Which brings us to a dangerous realization about the state of play in #Pakistan rn. Has @ImranKhanPTI upped the ante so much that the Army 12/n

is actually feeling cornered? Our security establishment already suffers from a siege mentality. With the Army holed up inside cantonments, is the siege mentality on steroids right now? The Army sees itself as the protector of the State of #Pakistan 13/n

against all threats domestic and foreign. If #IK whips up his supporters into a frenzy (he's almost there) and the existence of the state is threatened, how will the Army respond? Which side will the Army choose to be on in a confrontation between the 14/n

State and the people? Historically when relations between the State and the people soured, the Army stepped in as a mediator or simply took over. However, this time the situation is very different. #PTI has directed all its anger against the State towards #Army which it 15/n

rightly views as the ultimate king maker within the State. With decades of weakening other govt institutions to ensure its dominance - as @ashirazeemgill pointed out in his latest video - the Army is standing alone to face #PTI's onslaught. 16/n

So far in this game of thrones, all overt moves to increase pressure have been made by #PTI and #IK. Whatever has been credited to the #Army or #ISI have been covert moves so we really can't be sure who made those. The #Army hasn't really made any overt moves so far and is 17/n

holding the line. Who will blink first? Will IK let loose his supporters against the State or will the Army snap first to nip any attack on the State in the bud? Only time will tell. Not much longer now to the new Chief's announcement, IF #Bajwa is really retiring. 18/18