GOP House math coming into focus:
206 seats are locked down.
R's lead and *should* win: #AZ06, #CA03, #CA40, #CA45, #IA03, #MI10, #MT01, #NY22.
That's 214. Need 4 of these 15: #AZ01 #CA13 #CA22 #CA27 #CA41 #CA47 #CA49 #CO03 #CO08 #CT05 #NM02 #NV03 #OR05 #OR06 #WA03
206 seats are locked down.
R's lead and *should* win: #AZ06, #CA03, #CA40, #CA45, #IA03, #MI10, #MT01, #NY22.
That's 214. Need 4 of these 15: #AZ01 #CA13 #CA22 #CA27 #CA41 #CA47 #CA49 #CO03 #CO08 #CT05 #NM02 #NV03 #OR05 #OR06 #WA03
The easiest path to 4:
#CA41 Calvert (R) holds a Trump seat as more votes come in.
#WA03 Kent (R) comes back as late votes typically break R in WA.
#AZ01 Schweikert (R) comes back as late votes are generally pro-R in Arizona.
#CA27 Garcia (R) holds his 15-point lead.
#CA41 Calvert (R) holds a Trump seat as more votes come in.
#WA03 Kent (R) comes back as late votes typically break R in WA.
#AZ01 Schweikert (R) comes back as late votes are generally pro-R in Arizona.
#CA27 Garcia (R) holds his 15-point lead.
Republicans are also bullish on #CT05, which is very close. R's lead #OR05 by 4 and #CA22 by 8, but with more mail-ballot uncertainty (the NYT needle sees R's as modest favorites in both).
Regardless, it's a wait-and-see game with Western mail votes.
Regardless, it's a wait-and-see game with Western mail votes.
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