📣📣 A few days ago I posted my analysis of whether the GOP's COVID Death Cult 💀 is likely to be the decisive factor in any *statewide* races. My conclusion was that #NVSenate is the most likely candidate for this (& potentially #AZGov, #AZAG & the upcoming #GASenate Runoff). 1/
I estimate that *if* CCM ends up winning the #NVSenate race by less than ~2,400 votes, there's a very strong argument to be made that the GOP COVID Death Cult is what made the difference.

The same applies if Dems win #AZGov or #AZAG by less than ~4,100 votes. 2/
In the case of #GASenate, if Raphael Warnock ends up winning the upcoming runoff election by less than ~5,700 votes, I would also put it in this category.

TODAY, as promised, I'm looking at this question for HOUSE races, which are a lot trickier to do due to district borders. 3/
The core of the problem is that all of my COVID data is based on COUNTY lines, not CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT lines. Since many (most?) CDs don't overlap county borders, it means some counties are sliced & diced into multiple CDs (L.A. County alone is part of *18* districts!) 4/
This greatly limits the number of Congressional Districts where I can even *attempt* to run an analysis of this sort. I only feel comfortable doing it in cases where the CD borders *mostly* overlap w/county borders, and where the partial counties are minimal. 5/
As it happens, the first example of such a district happens to be...#CO03, Lauren Boebert's district.

#CO03 *fully* includes 26 CO counties, plus just *1* partial county (Eagle County, which is shared with just 1 other district). 6/

If I include *all* of Eagle County as part of CO-03, I estimate around 2,500 residents died of COVID between the 2020 and 2022 elections, of which roughly 1,775 likely voted.

Of those, my low end estimate of the "Red/Blue gap" is ~250; my high end estimate is ~650. 7/ Image
Only 17 of those deaths happened in Eagle County (total pop. 55K), so only including half the county, or none at all, doesn't really change these numbers much.

*IF* Boebert loses by less than ~600 votes (she's ahead by ~1,100 at the moment), that would put #CO03 in this zone. 8/
Again, there's only a handful of House districts where the district/county borders line up closely enough for me to be able to run this analysis. I'll be updating this post as I find them: /end

Update: #WA03 seems to be another good district to look at. If I'm reading this map correctly, it consists of 6 *full* counties (Clark, Cowlitz, Lewis, Pacific, Skamania & Wahkiakum) plus *part* of Thurston County: rdcext.blob.core.windows.net/public/2-Indiv…
If I include ALL of Thurston County (2nd largest of the 7, w/nearly 300K residents), I get a Red/Blue COVID Gap range of 20 - 300.

If I don't include ANY of Thurston County, the range is from 80 - 315.

In short, Kent would have to lose by less than ~300 to be in this zone.
UPDATE: OK, never mind! Thanks to @adamCS for providing me the county/CD-level population breakout for every 2022 Congressional District! This is VERY helpful!

WA-03, has 11.4% of Thurston County's population. The rest is part of WA-10.
Stay tuned for more updates on this...

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More from @charles_gaba

Nov 11
House state of play (h/t @Taniel & @Fritschner; I just gussied up the table a bit, including adding the current vote margins & % reported via the NY Times).

If Dems hold all seats they're currently leading in *and* flip 5 of the 10 currently w/GOP leading, they get to 218. Image
Whoops...the margin cell for MD-06 should be orange instead of blue...but it's my understanding that that one is expected to flip blue soon anyway...
IMPORTANT: Notice that the California races (which make up 10 of the 17 listed) have only reported an average of 55% of their votes so far!

I have no clue where the other ~45% are located but all 10 of them could *easily* change.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 11
Latest Arizona numbers via @NYTimes...all 4 Dems are slowly padding their leads...
Latest Nevada numbers via @NYTimes...no change to AG or SOS, but Gov & Senate inched towards Dems some more. #NXP
I'm gonna remove AG from Nevada since it's actually been called for Ford at this point.

Conventional wisdom seems to be that Cortez Masto & Francisco Aguilar have a solid shot at winning but Sisolak can't close the gap, but we'll see...
Read 5 tweets
Nov 9
📣 Now that it's no longer theoretical, several people have asked the "Elephant in the Room" question: Did the higher GOP COVID death rate, due to their dramatically higher refusal to wear masks, socially distance or get vaccinated, impact any races? 1/
In September I posted my final update to an occasional analysis of the COVID data vs. 2020 Trump/Biden voting data. I don't have enough data to drill down to the Congressional District level, but I came up with what I think are reasonable *statewide* estimates of the gap. 2/
There's a handful of states where it *might* have made the difference in some statewide races. My estimates for *how many more Trump voters have died of COVID than Biden voters* in those are: 3/

AZ: ~4,100
GA: ~5,700
MI: ~3,700
NV: ~2,400
PA: ~7,800
WI: ~2,700
Read 15 tweets
Nov 9
Here's where Arizona stands at the moment, via @nytimes: Kelly up by ~90K, Hobbs up by ~11.7K, Fontes up by ~84.5K, Mayes up by ~4K.

Only 2/3 of the vote in for each, however; I have no idea how the remainder is expected to break. ImageImageImageImage
Here's where Nevada stands at the moment, via @nytimes: Sisolak *down* by ~40K, Cortez Masto *down* by ~22.6K, Aguilar *down* by ~9.3K, Ford *up* by ~35K.

...all with ~3/4 of the vote in. Again, no idea how the remainder breaks. ImageImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
Nov 9
OK, folks, I'm still bleary-eyed: I know Michigan Dems flipped both the state House and Senate, and that Minnesota DFL flipped the state Senate. What other noteworthy *state legislative* news is there so far?
For what it's worth, here's how much I raised for the Dems running in the 7 closest state Senate races, and how they fared.
Also FWIW, here's how much I raised for the Dems running in the 29 closest state House races, and how most of them fared (I don't know the results of 8 of them yet, though I'm assuming they all lost except possibly Reggie Miller?)
Read 5 tweets
Nov 9
Good morning! Sounds like Dems did about as well overall as they reasonably could’ve under the circumstances.
As a native Michigander I’m thrilled at the news that it sounds like we had a great night, apparently including flipping both the state Senate and House?
Nationally, it sounds like in the Senate we gained Fetterman but *may* have lost Cortez Masto and/or Kelly, w/Georgia possibly going to another runoff?
Read 5 tweets

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