THREAD: @ECIU_UK report out today asks whether the Big Four emitters - China, the US, the EU and India - are likely to cut emissions faster than their headline targets indicate eciu.net/analysis/repor…
TL:DR - the answer, for three of the four, is 'yes'
We're used to hearing that China under-promises and over-delivers. Certainly the real-world stats and trends in clean energy are big and fast-moving
One example: early this year think-tank @CREACleanAir estimated there were 600GW of renewables in the pipeline to 2025. Just months later they upgraded this to 870GW, so fast were new plans coming through
https://twitter.com/laurimyllyvirta/status/1577899095167057920?
Sales of EVs this year are forecast to be 6 million - twice the figure for non-EVs last year. Carmaker BYD has stopped building fossil-fuelled models already, and five times more EV chargers will be rolled out than in the rest of the world combined
Yes, coal-fired power stations are still being built... but increasingly, to back up cheaper renewable generation. Which puts coal progressively in a battle with energy storage for an application that storage is designed for and coal-fired power stations aren't. Only one winner
It's a similar picture in India. Over this decade the National Electricity Plan projects a coal power station expansion of 20% - & a solar expansion of 250%. Installed capacity of renewables will comfortably exceed even peak demand cea.nic.in/wp-content/upl… reducing coal to back-up
Private sector is already poised to build 86% of the solar target. So provided storage is cheap and plentiful and grid connections adequate, coal is fast heading for the exit (big chance for international funding like a JET-P to support grid & storage)
The EV numbers are impressive for India too, mainly in 2- and 3-wheelers. Projections vary from 49% to 90% compound annual growth - re-iterating, compound growth - through the 2020s
In the EU the rationale is about more than climate change and cheap solar power. Putin's war has changed the entire conversation
Now, the clean energy transition doesn't only deliver for climate change, air pollution and energy bills, but also for energy security, industrial growth and foreign policy independence
OPEC+'s decision to keep restricting supply is also a factor npr.org/2022/10/05/112…. European governments have already shelled out an estimated €674bn to keep energy bills affordable
If OPEC+ is to deliberately keep the price of oil and gas high, similar sums may be needed year after year - which will quickly become unaffordable - unless and until Europe cuts its fossil fuel dependence
In response the EU has increased targets on energy efficiency and renewables build to 2030, which should lead to over-achievement of its 55% NDC target by 2-3% climateanalytics.org/media/1-5pathw…
But could it go further? Many EU member states have implemented their own measures to cut gas use and boost clean energy rollout bruegel.org/dataset/nation…
And businesses and individual decisions may play a role. EV sales are increasing market share, heat pumps too (34% growth annually). Like renewables and batteries, we can expect cost reductions as the market expands. Will the impact of all this take the EU beyond that 2-3%?
Which, of the big four emitters, leaves the US. Here, there are more political uncertainties. But the recent mid-term election results suggest that implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act and other measures will go ahead
That means clean technologies could be supplying a massive 85% of US electricity by 2030 energyinnovation.org/wp-content/upl…. Big advances in energy efficiency, EVs etc also likely
...all of which could lead to a cut in US emissions of 32-42% below 2005 levels by 2030 - still short of the US NDC target of 50-52%
Could faster action at state level (eg California, Illinois) provide faster carbon-cutting? Unsure - the gap to the NDC number is quite big
Nevertheless... for three of the Big Four, we find strong signs that headline targets will be exceeded. Of course it would be advantageous if their NDCs included the implications of all this real-world progress - a big aid to transparency - but maybe that will come in time
Correction with apologies - 'twice the figure for EVs last year'
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