Thread by @WarintheFuture

Lots of uncertainty remains about the missiles that struck the Polish town of #Przewodow today. The reactions to this incident bear close watching. Some initial thoughts – a thread. 1/22 🧵 smh.com.au/world/europe/w…

2/ Early this morning (Australian time), two Russian missiles of a type yet to be determined slammed into this country town about 10 kilometres from the Ukrainian border. washingtonpost.com/world/2022/11/…

3/ At the same time, the Russians had been executing a large missile attack on multiple cities across #Ukraine, including the western city of Lviv.

4/ This was an expected missile barrage in the wake of the humiliating Russian defeat and withdrawal from western #Kherson, and President Zelensky’s address to the G20 (or G19 as he calls it, the obvious omission being Russia). president.gov.ua/en/news/ukrayi…

5/ Poland is a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Having joined in 1999 in the wake of the fall of the Soviet Union, Poland is therefore covered by the articles contained in the 1949 Washington Treaty. nato.int/cps/en/natohq/…?

6/ This includes the often-quoted Article 5, which states that “an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all.”

7/ We are some ways from an armed attack on Russia as a result of this missile strike on Poland, however.

8/ It is more probable we will witness a lot of Article 4 from the same treaty: “The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened.”

9/ There is a lack of clarity about the origin and rationale for the missile’s hitting this small settlement. Was this an act of stupendous Russian idiocy, deliberating targeting Poland? Or, was this an accident, a mistake in planning or targeting?

10/ It could also be the result of an intercepted missile landing west of its intended target. Definitive attribution of the source of these missiles, including a detailed assessment of missile parts, is required quickly to inform Polish and NATO responses.

11/ Reactions by Poland and NATO will also be informed by the Russian response. Their initial reaction was to deny it. If Russia holds to this in the coming days, it may guide different reactions from the West than if Russia was to admit an accident. reuters.com/world/europe/r…

12/ An important principle that is likely to guide the Polish, NATO and American responses to this irresponsible Russian attack in Poland is ‘proportionality’.

13/ The Polish government will consult among themselves and with NATO. NATO will conduct internal deliberations as well as consultations with the heads of member nations, including the United States.

14/ Through all this, there will be a search for a response to Russia which does not significantly escalate the war, but also sends a strong message to Russia that further such attacks can only result in a larger response from NATO.

15/ Some actions resulting from this attack are more likely than others. It is likely that NATO countries will seek to hasten supplies of missile defences to Ukraine, given the 100 attacks in Ukraine in the past few hours.

16/ It is also likely that there may be a strengthening of air defences along NATO’s eastern borders, including Poland and the Baltic states. Poland may step up assistance even further, including more artillery and armoured vehicles.

17/ The attacks in Poland and Ukraine today will also harden the resolve of President Zelensky & Ukrainian people to achieve the ten elements of war termination that Zelensky outlined in his G20 (G19) speech.

18/ It is unlikely, however, that @NATO (or Russia) would wish to use this as a pretext for a widening of the war. But regardless of whose missile this was, it would not have fallen here if #Russia had not invaded #Ukraine.

19/ Miscalculation, recklessness and a callous – almost medieval – disregard for human life and international norms has been a characteristic of Russia’s bumbling and brutal invasion of #Ukraine.

20/ In a speech by the Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, she notes that “freedom is not cost-free. Ukrainians are paying with their lives. We pay in euros and must keep repeating to ourselves that gas might be expensive, but freedom is priceless.”

https://twitter.com/kajakallas/status/1592518827849523211?s=20&t=rbuZxX29weNtFJtq-hiyWw

21/ The Russian missile attacks on Poland & Ukraine today are further evidence for why democracies, whatever form or location, must be unified & unyielding in their resistance against the vicious techno-authoritarian regimes that threaten us all. End smh.com.au/world/europe/w…

22/ Thank you to the following whose images and links were used in this thread: @ZelenskUA @NATO @smh @Reuters @kajakallas @washingtonpost @nytimes @KyivIndependent