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Alexander Stahel 🇺🇦 Profile picture
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Nov 22 • 3 tweets • 2 min read
Kazakhstan is a top exporter of crude oil globally. Only KSA, RUS, US, IRQ, UAE, KW, BRA, NOR are bigger; at par with LY, NIG, AO or AZ (Azerbaijan).

Exports from CPC Terminal in Black Sea (RUS jurisdictions) are down 25% since Jan due to lower output at Kashagan.

1/3 #OOTT
The buoyancy tank of SPM-1 at CPC terminal is now completed.

However, operators stated Kashagan was operating at 50% of capacity in late Oct; the facility’s complete restart is slated for Nov (at earliest).

2/3
cpc.ru/EN/press/relea…
Meanwhile, the spin doctors in Russian TV are saying you are next...

3/3 @kittysquiddy

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More from @BurggrabenH

Alexander Stahel 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Nov 23
Some observations on China crude imports, storage levels and product consumption.

Short thread...

1/n
Basics first:

China's baseline crude imports are 10.5mbpd (pipe & seaborne).

It has an apparent consumption of up to 14.8mbpd which it satisfies from additional 4.1mbpd of its own production (on- and offshore) and storage (if need be).

2/n @kittysquiddy Image
In 2020, China imported 11.3mbpd (1.2 more than 2019) to take advantage of distressed prices until storage went tank-top. That was "peak China".

YTD 2022, it's at 10.2mbpd, 0.5mbpd below 2021.

Note how it dropped EU crude to add 200kbpd Urals?

3/n Image
Read 13 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Nov 12
TAM mirage + crabbing market share + nerdy talk is how money is destroyed fastest.

What is unacceptable is that quality VCs still fail to DD investments properly while having zero macro process. They deserve to be sued by LPs.

@sequoia @FTX_Official @SBF_FTX
Back door
Read 21 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Nov 4
Don't mix up the recent collapse in EU gas spot prices with the pain for consumers and CPI readings yet to come.

Take GER consumers/SMEs: they are yet to absorb the pain from higher wholesale gas future prices for utilities in the coming months.

1/n #TTF #LNG @kittysquiddy
Following a one-off payment in Dec of 8.3% of the annual household bill for gas, Germany will cap consumer prices for gas for households at €120/MWh for 80% of their usual consumption. Beyond that, consumers/SMEs will pay the wholesale (future) price for any additional gas.

2/n
1M forward TTF (EU wholesale natgas hub price) surged as high as €313/MWh in Aug 2022 (hight of NS1 sabotage panic) and are now €114/MWh (€33/MMBtu).

However, as GER still gets some gas under long-term contracts, actual IMPORT prices are a better proxy for pain to come.

3/
Read 8 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Nov 1
Russia is mostly struggling to find new markets for its 7.4mbpd crude & product exports in Jan 22, despite $22 discounts.

Prediction:
a) come Dec, the world will lose up to 1.1mbpd of RUS crude;
b) come Feb, the world will lose 0.5mbpd of RUS product barrels;

Here is why

1/
Let us start at the beginning.

Since 2017, RUS has been producing 10.7-11.5mbpd of crude. Of that 50% has been exported.

RUS also exported up to 1.8mbpd in the form of petroleum products (e.g. Diesel, Naphtha, Gasoline, Jet, etc.).

RUS consumed up to 4mbpd.

2/n
Where did 7mbpd go to?

OECD Europe bought up to 4mbpd of RUS crude & products. China up to 1.6mbpd, rest of Asian 0.7mbpd.

Add rounding error purchases for Med Region, the odd crude quality purchase by the US and Belarus' Druzhba pipe imports and you got the market place.

3/n
Read 27 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Oct 25
How long will EU gas prices and with it EU power prices and likely the Euro, inflation expectations and European rates get a break?

Anwer: It (mainly) depends on weather. So what is the forecast?

1/n #TTF #NBP #EUR
The main consumers of gas is North West, Central & South East EU. We disregard Nordics which consumes little.

North West temps are currently 6% higher than its 30-y normal - a lot!

Temps are forecast to stay above normal into Dec. However, post 10 Nov only by 1.5%.

2/n
Both South East & Central Europe are 5% above 30-year normal temps too. Both regions are forecast to normalise after 10 November.

That will leave gas storages constrained well into Dec.

My hunch is that gas prices will not recover much until storages go < 55% (Jan/Feb).

3/n
Read 12 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Oct 23
The only certainty for European natural gas prices going forward is volatility, volatility and more volatility.

Here is why...

1/n #LNG #TTF Image
The Great Rotation: With the invastion of Ukraine, VVP decided to use gas as a weapon & cut pipeline flows into Europe.

In return, Europe maxed out LNG terminal capacities & contracted every available free LNG cargo globally to compensate the collapse of Russian flows.

2/n Image
Europe was able to attract LNG by being the best business globally.

How? By offering the highest prices. A cargo owner such as Trafigura or Total which bought LNG at Cheniere in US for $4.1/MMBtu + $3 gasification fee in Jan 2022 booked a pre-shipping profit of $21/MMBtu.

3/n Image
Read 14 tweets

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