Thread by @Tendar

The Russian defeats and withdrawals have considerably decreased the length of the front line and I'm only counting the one inside Ukraine. I made some statistics and have given my opinion and prognosis about the upcoming months.

Thread
1/10

The overall length of the remaining front line is around 880 km, but around 380 km are rivers, especially the Dnipro River, making up around 350 km the lion's share. The remaining "water" front lines are the Oskil and Siversky Donets River as well as a few lakes and ravines. 2/10

The Zaporizhzhia front (land based) is currently the smallest, making up only 115 km. It is also currently the quietest front, but Ukraine has massed considerable forces in that sector which might soon commence a full scale offensive. 3/10

The Donetsk front is around 230 km long and currently the most active front. It is also the only sector where Russian conduct offensive operations but with devastating results for them. It is therefore the sector with highest Russian casualties. 4/10

The most Northern fronts are in the Luhansk/Kharkiv sector. It is around 187 km long with some intense battles primarily at the Svatove-Kreminna line. Currently, it is more a stalemate but Russian forces are getting ground down. 5/10

Especially Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia are weak spots of the Russian defense. Both have weakened Russian battle groups and reinforcements made up by conscripts. Kherson is relatively stable thanks to the Dnipro and Donetsk hosts the bulk of the surviving Russian special forces. 6/10

Overall I predict that Ukrainian forces will keep up the pressure on all sectors, including Kherson/Dnipro River and eventually will push at 1 or maybe even 2 front lines. Russia will try to slow down the Ukrainian progress but ultimately will fail to stop AFU. 7/10

The Russian offensives at Bakhmut, Avdiika and Pavlivka are tactical failures and strategically seen total blunders. It is obvious that Ukrainian forces in that sector are ordered just to decimate Russian troops while other AFU units keep pushing in remaining sectors. 8/10

My prognosis is that AFU will reach the Sea of Azov by March-May and little later in summer the administrative border of Crimea. This unfolding military disaster for Russia will likely end with political consequences in Moscow. By that time the Russian defeat is too apparent.9/10

I also do not exclude that the collapse of the Russian regime might happen far earlier. All what I'm certain of is that once triggered it will happen fast. It will be accompanied with a final military collapse of Russian forces in Ukraine, most notably in Donetsk and Crimea.10/10