| osint_east | Profile picture
Nov 27 4 tweets 2 min read
@Mike_Eckel skepticism is definitely warranted.

Either this is: very confusingly worded; is misstating the equipment used; or is based on information that few—if any—have in the open-source community.

1/4
One odd detail is the reported 10km distance SPG/s were transported.

The geography of the Danube Biosphere Reserve warrants waterborne transport (deltaic marshland), but the distance of a geolocated firing position from a presumed launch-point at #Vylkoev exceeds 10km.

2/ Image
In theory, there can be a period between February and March when prevailing surface temperatures enable over-freezing of the marshlands, enabling cross-country transport.

But salinity in brackish marshlands, human-landscape influence, and few sand bars challenge this theory.

3/
It is worth noting that if waterborne transport was involved, it implies AFU transported military equipment nearly exactly along the international border (Danube River) with Romania.

This is an interesting development to follow.

4/4
nytimes.com/2022/11/26/wor…

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More from @osint_east

Nov 29
An expansive and comprehensive essay by @LawDavF illustrating the difficultly of the entrenchment of Russian leadership, and their inability to see the reality of the war's progression.

1/

samf.substack.com/p/is-russia-lo…
This brings me back to a discussion from @keithgessen featuring Hein Goemans on the elements that make up war termination theory, and how the war in Ukraine is a case where the forces at play make envisioning an end so difficult.

2/

newyorker.com/culture/annals…
"As for domestic politics, Putin was exactly the sort of leader that Goemans had warned about. Despite his significant repressive apparatus, he did not have total control of the country.

"If he started losing, Goemans predicted, he would simply escalate."

3/
Read 5 tweets
Nov 29
@TheStudyofWar released its daily (11/28) assessment:

"Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin himself observed in October that #Wagner forces operating in the #Bakhmut area advance only 100–200 meters a day."

#UkraineRussiaWar

🔞

1/10
Bakhmut is a working case study on the rigid organizational frameworks that define Wagner, and its associated antagonists, enabling what can only be described as a phenomenally insane operational effort.

(a long thread on Wagner as an organization is in the works)

2/
Bakhmut has been the focus of relentless & mostly futile assaults by Russian forces (esp. Wagner) for months on end.

The sheer extent of unrelenting violence exhibited on a (relatively small) battlefield is telling of both armies' present momentum and objectives.

3/ Ukrainian solider treated i...Ukrainian soldiers fire art...Ukrainian soldider looks fr...
Read 11 tweets
Nov 27
Some weeks back Dave asked a good question, and I've given some time to think on it. What I've arrived at is exploring how info is used, how I use it, and why context matters.

Spoiler: I'm not publishing a list. *You* need to define that.

#OSINT
#ContextMatters

1/19
First, it's important to ask the question "Why are we here?"

I suppose the answer comes in many forms: political leanings and motivations, military & conflict analysis, offering moral support, news updates, and an intrigue in events beyond one's borders.

2/
For any answer, what does that tell us about what information we seek, what it means, and where it comes from?

It would be foolish to assume everyone is out for the #facts. This flies in the face of personal & collective biases, and dampens the emotions that come with them.

3/
Read 19 tweets
Nov 26
@TheStudyofWar released its daily (11/25) assessment:

"...responses from milbloggers with Kremlin & external affiliations about ongoing mobilization issues further illustrates extent of erosion of morale & increase in confusion among the pro-war nationalist community."

1/5
Ongoing and increasing confusion and discontent within Russian information spaces is an emergent property of mobilization efforts, and an overall flagging war effort.

This was observed—if not fully-expected—through early analysis of actualized mobilization:

2/
I presume that as Russian mil-info spaces struggle with countervailing narratives, there is possible equal confusion among the Russian public.

They may seek alternate truths, having grown discontented with State & mil-info spaces mired in contradictions & infighting.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Nov 25
Hey @daxe , pointing out some likely inconsistencies in your recent article for Forbes.

In short: there is still no substantive evidence of a landing at Kinburn, as you state.

#OSINT

1/7

forbes.com/sites/davidaxe…
Rumors beginning Nov 11/12 are outcomes of channels (Russian/Ukrainian, official & non-official) essentially repeating, then refuting, similar claims. Some of those claims were repeated verbatim.

This thread tracks those claims in high-detail, and with all sources of claims.

2/
Second, you reference a Nov 22 statement by Vitaly Kim as confirmation.

However, he states "we have three settlements left" which implies they remain legally-occupied as part of Mykolaiv thus there is no proof of their release by the AFU).

s: t.me/mykolaivskaODA…

3/ Image
Read 7 tweets
Nov 25
‼️Misleading.

There is still no substantive evidence of ground operations on the Kinburn peninsula. Artillery Fires and/or RECON remain *possible.

The 'political source' Chuck references is Vitaly (Vitalii) Kim, Governor of Mykolaiv.

s: t.me/mykolaivskaODA…

1/4
In V. Kim's November 22 statement he states:

"we have three settlements left...so that we can legally exit the state of the warring region."

This means three settlements within *Mykolaiv Oblast* remain occupied, thus the Oblast remains considered as formally occupied.

2/
This implies that the settlements: Pokrovs'ke, Vasylivka, and Pokrovka are not under Ukrainian control. This further indicates that ground operations further east (as Chuck states) are unlikely.

The geolocation of damage on Pokrovs'ke is included.

3/
Read 5 tweets

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