Thread by @tjayaraman

COP27: NEW HORIZONS IN EQUITY AND CLIMATE ACTION -- Video with Q&A of my NIAS Talk on assessing COP27 outcomes on 29th Nov. Some high-end points I made...1/n
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COP27 a "successful" COP. Unique challenge for countries of global South that want to use this as opportunity. Challenging to manage developed countries to steer to consensus outcomes, while preserving Southern solidarity and unity.2/n

Major achievement -- putting L&D funding on agenda, while seeing off putting Article 2.1c also there, to the negotiation rooms. Hopefully it will stay there, while the new finance language (see below) takes over. 3/n

Art. 2.1 c is all about restricting energy access and demand in the global South by the North, while continually delaying their own emission reductions, especially from oil and gas.4/n

Strong G77+China solidarity the key feature of the advances at COP27 and the turn away from the mitigation-by-developing-economies obsession of COP26, ignoring development and equity. 5/n

Important cover text -- Key gains and some problematic emerging issues. Gains - 1. Loss and damage. Funds are uncertain. Modalities, sources and actual flows in the air. But still, a decisive message - responsibility for L&D lies with those who owe the world a carbon debt!! 6/n

Gains - 2. Finance. Remarkable language in para 34 on the need for public finance, accelerated support for mitigation and adaptation, and removal of inequities in access and terms and conditions. 7/n

Para 37 calls for reform of multilateral development bank practices, a new vision, provide concessional climate finance and not to increase debt burdens. Aligns with developing countries' calls for reform of global financial architecture - global warming one more reason. 8/n

Para 30, first-ever estimate of global financial needs for climate action - important, though likely with very inequitable estimates and significant under-estimation. Ongoing critique, as in COP26, of failure of providing promised $100 bill - a regular feature now. 9/n

Important new elements -- big contrast with mitigation-centric COP26 -- such as food security, vulnerability of "food production systems" (and not food systems), and key reference to health. Useful building blocks for future. 10/n

Shift in the landscape of equity -- not purely mitigation-centric, that made it appear a defensive strategy. Push on L&D, finance, adaptation (though a final decision will come only at the next COP), food security, vulnerability, alongside equity in mitigation. 11/n

India led on equity: including agriculture, the need for equity while pushing any specific results on global peaking, net zero and emission reduction targets, challenging the coal obsession of the North that ignores oil and gas, and sharing of the global carbon budget. 12/n

India's efforts also led to inclusion of reference to the need for sustainable lifestyles in the cover decision together with sustainable patterns of production and consumption. 13/n

While mixed results were seen in final cover decision, India made clear its push for equity and climate justice. Equity is no longer "shield" or "sword", defensive or offensive, but foundation of a liveable, sustainable world. 14/n

Major negative directions -- mitigation centric push on natural resources, including water, forests, and introduction of nature-based solutions, and related emphasis on non-GHG emissions. Emphasis on "conserving, protecting, restoring" without reference to sustainable use. 15/n

Text a backward step from the more nuanced (but still not inadequate) language of the UN Environment Assembly resolutions of March 2022. Ignores the stark reality that Nature will be bear the brunt of warming, and that sustainable use is fundamental for adaptation. 16/n

Many developing countries see accepting such mitigation burdens in natural resources as unavoidable. Other developing countries must persuade them out of the illusion, underlining adaptation as the focus for Nature, as emphasized in Art. 2 of the Convention. 17/n

Agriculture was brought into mitigation. The first sectoral push at UNFCCC on mitigation, that will put the burden on the few hundred millions who have contributed little to warming but will bear its brunt. 18/n

G77 efforts ensured that the language carried heavy caveats, though India made clear that more was needed. The just transition work programme initiated (its contours to be decided) while scope of programme on enhanced ambition in mitigation and implementation was finalised. 19/n

Keeping both in balance, not offering yet another excuse for rewriting the PA, will be another challenge for the South. India clarified that just transition for the South is low-carbon development and not decarbonization. . 20/n

Developed countries are still resolutely against their commitment to take the lead. Without their whole-hearted commitment on mitigation effort, finance and technology transfer, the world still threat. 21/n

Shouting about climate emergency, hypocritical criticism of COP27 as unambitious, are no substitute for real action. Their enthusiasm for Art. 6 (carbon trading) yet another pointer to this malady. Squeezing more de-carbonisation out of an un-carbonized South is no solution.22/n

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