ERCOTs new study shows that Bitcoin miners are providing a benefit to the Texas grid
π§΅ππΌ
The Texas grid operator ERCOT just released a report that evaluates the adequacy of installed generation capacity for the winter based on historic data + several risk scenario forecasts (eg extreme demand, low wind, extreme peak load)
2/
The ERCOT report shows that Bitcoin miners are predicted to provide (ie curtail) 1.7GW to help meet winter peak demand in Texas 3/
The 1.7 GW curtailment by Bitcoin miners represents 2.5% of the winter peak load forecast (baseline), which is not insignificant if you consider the nascency of mining in Texas 4/
Bitcoin miners are expected to provide more capacity to the Texas grid from curtailment (1.7GW) than energy storage (0.9GW), solar (1.5GW), or hydro (0.4GW) alone!
- ERCOT resource adequacy study 5/
ERCOT assumes that co-located Bitcoin miners shut down below their breakeven threshold (est to be at $86/MWh for an s19 this Nov)
97% of their power requirements become available to meet winter grid demand 6/
Why is this important? Texas suffered an extreme weather event in 2021, which strained the grid, left 4.5m people w/out power (& heat), & caused damages to water & gas distribution systems
Miners provide a capacity buffer that help grids weather the storm during extreme events
7
Outside of extreme weather events, bitcoin miners provide a predictable revenue steam for the power they use, thus supporting the generators they're colocated with, or subsidize other ratepayers in regulated electricity markets such as Canada (system costs need to be recovered)
8
Reports like this are an important tool for short term system planning (ie this winter)
Further, ERCOT can also model the impact of Bitcoin miners wrt long term system planning, as additional renewables & industrial & household loads are expected to change overtime
9/
ERCOTs report can also provide valuable insights to other jurisdictions wrt how Bitcoin mining fits into the electricity grid, particularly those that are contemplating unfavorable politices wrt mining
Looking at you NY, Quebec, Manitoba, Labrador & Ontario #canpoli
10/
Beyond the loss of privacy, this harms the ability of smaller service providers (software wallets, domestic exchanges, etc) to compete w/ large global providers (exchanges, defi/cefi)
Reg burden is a moat. This is BAD FOR CONSUMERS, as it limits choice
2/
Compliance is expensive. FATF guidance is implemented diff by countries, benefiting large players w/ an army of lawyers
Small co will need to increase their fees; others will close shop
This is BAD FOR INNOVATION, as often small co differentiate w new/better ideas & services
3/
w/ BIP85 u can create & ultra-securely back up a master seed & then use that to derive 1000s of mnemonic seeds that you can import to mobile/software wallets (Bitcoin, but yes even alts)
3/
#Bitcoin is a cross-cutting technology. It impacts multiple industries in our economy:
πΈοΈ Financial services
πΈοΈ Energy
πΈοΈ Manufacturing
πΈοΈ Government (& governance)
& many others indirectly due to economic incentives that incent waste reduction & resource optimization
1/
Big picture view: it's important to support the *whole* #Bitcoin ecosystem
This promotes economies of scale, allows for the creation of a global hub, & strengthens talent attraction & retention, all in a virtuous cycle
2/
In this #Bitcoin bull run, don't underestimate the added impact on available BTC supply from: 1. #BitcoinMiners βοΈ aggressively HODLing 2. BTC getting locked up on the #LightningNetwork β‘οΈ
π§΅ππ½
NA miners are leveraging capital markets (debt & equity) for equipment upgrades & expansion
Miners have never had so many options (both debt & equity) vs prior halving epochs, alleviating the need to sell #Bitcoin
Building a BTC treasury is a winning capital markets strategy 2/
China's mining ban has been a boon to North American miners. Bolstered by the resulting difficulty drop, NA miners have been accumulating record levels of BTC
BUT newly mined Bitcoin are increasingly HODLed by public miners vs sold on markets, contributing to supply squeezes 3/
#Bitcoin mining punches above its weight class wrt renewables adoption
It's also better able to transition to low carbon vs traditional industry
ππΌπ§΅ will dive into:
πΈοΈhow miners are decarbonizing
πΈοΈwhat's carbon negative vs neutral
πΈοΈcontext wrt trad industry
1/
#Bitcoin mining is unique: it's the only industry w/ an industrial footprint that produces a digital good. Further, production cost cannot be passed to consumers
As such, mining is an energy intense trade exposed industry like steel or cement, & locates where most competitive
2/
Green makes economic sense: energy & carbon emissions are cost centers
Green mining is accelerating b/c it has a competitive edge
β Lower marginal cost of power
β Added revenue streams (heat, byproducts)
β No carbon costs
Similar to trad industry, mining is decarbonizing
3/