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Janis Kluge

@jakluge

Dec 2

How much did #sanctions affect #Russia's economy? A lot: By the end of 2022, it will be ~10% smaller than it would have been without sanctions. For this scenario, I used the latest -2.8% #GDP forecast for 2022 & a pre-sanctions +3% forecast (both from 🇷🇺Economy Ministry). 1/3

The GDP index (Jun 21-Dec 22) is normalized to Feb 22 = 100. It is based on the inVEB GDP index (blue). The green line is based on constant mohtly growth that equates to 3% annual growth in 2022. The gray line is Nov/Dec 2022 if the Ministry's -2.8% scenario comes true. 2/3

It is very important to not confuse #Russia's annual GDP growth/decline with the #sanctions' effect. Both are related, but very different figures. 3/3

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Janis Kluge

@jakluge

Nov 30

In October, #Russia's GDP most likely grew slightly in comparison to September, judging from today's Rosstat data release. For the full year of 2022, Russian GDP will probably shrink by 2.9% (MinEk. estimate). This will be celebrated as a victory in the economic war by Russia. 1/

https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1597995982272491520

This annual figure means that Russian GDP is ~6-7% smaller in December than it was in February. Quite a lot, but also much less than anticipated. Russian GDP was boosted by construction & agriculture in 2022, but oil held up much better than expected. 2/

https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1597995982272491520

The "war economy" is clearly visible in the production statistics, which show strong increases for "special clothing" (uniforms), canned meat and "metal products" (weapons). Car production also slightly recovered (from a very low base). 3/

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Janis Kluge

@jakluge

Oct 17

The No1 mistake in economic forecasts has always been (and probably will always be) underestimating adaptation, innovation and resilience of market economies to external shocks. If at some point a book is written on the German gas discourse in 2022, it will be a case in point. 1/

Some people look at concrete companies and production processes and confuse them with "the economy". If prices change, some of these processes may not be viable anymore, some companies go bankrupt. But this does not mean that the economy will fall like dominoes. 2/

Cheap energy can help an economy like Germany's, but it is not a growth model per se. Cheap energy can only provide a one-time boost. It may last several years if prices fall gradually. But recent Germany's economic success should not be reduced to access to cheap Russian gas. 3/

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Janis Kluge

@jakluge

Oct 1

Die pompöse Feierlichkeit gestern in Moskau darf uns nicht darüber hinwegtäuschen, dass wir es nur mit einer "versuchten Annexion" zu tun haben, die erst einmal keine faktische oder rechtliche Wirkung außerhalb Russlands hat. 1/

Wie bei den Scheinreferenden ist unsere Wortwahl wichtig: Putin will Endgültigkeit, wir müssen in unserer Sprache das Temporäre unterstreichen. Bei der "annektierten Krim" (=case closed) ist uns das nicht gelungen. Wir müssen weiter unbeirrt von "besetzten Gebieten" sprechen. 2/

Nächste Woche schreibt Russland sich also in die Verfassung, dass seine Grenzen jetzt woanders verlaufen sollen. Das ist schön für Russland. Aber was sind wirklich die Folgen dieser Entwicklung nach außen und nach innen? 3/

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Janis Kluge

@jakluge

Sep 28

#Russia's new draft #budget (2023-2025) has reached the Duma, so details are available. A big day for statistics-hungry people. Here is the link (I needed VPN to access). sozd.duma.gov.ru/bill/201614-8. The "Poyasnitel'naya zapiska" is the juicy part. 1/

The underlying assumptions prepared by the Economy Ministry: The economy will shrink 2.9% this year and another 0.8% next year. Pretty optimistic, especially for next year. Growth of 2.6% in 24/25, but who knows what the world will look like in 24/25. /2

#Russia expects a steady increase in oil exports from 250m to 255m to 260m tons in 23/24/25 after 231m tons in 2021 and an estimated 243.1m this year, with prices falling from 80 USD this year to 70.1 to 67.5 to 65 USD in 23/24/25. Oil products: Shrinking exports expected. 3/

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Janis Kluge

@jakluge

Sep 28

#Russia's industrial production slightly fell in August after rising in July, in seasonally adjusted terms. Many parts of Russia's industry are still struggling, and new problems are on the horizon. Some highlights below. 1/
(link to latest Rosstat report
rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediab…)

Russia is unable to fix the problems of its automobile industry so far. In August, 24,700 cars were produced. 2/

Oil production in August was 45 million tons, which is 2.1% higher than last year, but 1.1% below July's output.
Gas production in August was 38.5 bcm, which is 22.3% lower than last year, but 5.4% above July's output. 3/

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