There remains much uncertainty about the reported Ukrainian strike on Russian airbases in the past 24 hours. This appears to provide some corroboration. What does this mean for the Russo-Ukraine war? 1/15 🧵
2/ The video in this tweet shows the alleged strikes. Thanks @Gerashchenko_en and others who have shared this.
3/ There are several important implications of this strike which are worth discussing.
4/ First, #Ukraine’s ability to undertake targeting at this distance is impressive. These bases are over 700km from Ukraine. Despite availability of commercial satellite images, targeting at this distance is difficult. Image
5/ The targeteers may have had third party assistance in planning the strike, but this is not a certainty. A combination of open source material, knowledge of the Russian air Defence network gaps and on the ground observation might have sufficed. Image
6/ Second, #Ukraine is adopting more active measures to reduce & prevent Russian missile strikes on its citizens and infrastructure. This is a logical next step. Because #Ukraine won’t strike Russian civilian targets, Russia has an asymmetric advantage with its missile attacks.
7/ Therefore, this is Ukraine’s way of saying that the Russians don’t have the asymmetric advantage with their long range missiles that they think they have.
8/ Third, the Russian airbase is a legitimate target of war for the Ukrainians. The aircraft and crews base there have conducted military operations against Ukraine and its people. It won’t stop the Russians whining about however.
9/ Fourth, where were the vaunted Russian air defenses that worried planners throughout the Cold War? Just as Kerch Bridge and other Crimea strikes have demonstrated, Russia’s defence against a determined and creative adversary have been shown to be porous.
10/ Fifth, the strike - if indeed it was a Ukrainian strike - is another demonstration of Ukraine’s confidence and will. It also shows that they will leverage their momentum in the war to continue hitting the Russians where it hurts over winter.
11/ Sixth, the Ukrainians - as they done throughout this war - will learn from this and adapt. It is unlikely to be the last time they attempt such a strike at Russian strategic forces. Thanks to @ImageSatIntl (and HT @RALee85) for this post strike image. Image
12/ Seventh, this is a psychological strike against Russia. This attack on a military target deep in Russia will cause consternation among a public who thought they were safely insulated from the war. It will be interesting to see the Russian propaganda machine’s reaction.
13/ Finally, Russia may need to rethink its defensive posture much further from Ukraine’s borders as a result of this strike. There are many airfields, command hubs and logistics much closer to Ukraine which are now at risk.
14/ We may learn more about this in the coming days. If indeed it was a Ukrainian strike, there are many interesting implications. But it again shows that #Ukraine has the initiative in this war, and they intend to sustain it at every level at which this war is being fought. End Image
15/ Thank you to the following whose images and tweets were used in this thread @ImageSatIntl @RALee85 @Gerashchenko_en @ian_matveev @MriyaReport @IAPonomarenko

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More from @WarintheFuture

Nov 28
In the wake of the Ukrainian victory in western #Kherson, and in the midst of Russia’s ongoing terror bombing campaign against Ukrainian civil infrastructure, we should look at the man in charge of Russia's campaign. A thread on General #Surovikin. 1/25 🧵
2/ CAVEAT: This thread is NOT about admiring an enemy military commander who has previously demonstrated brutality towards Syrian civilians, his own soldiers, and now against the Ukrainians. It is designed to provide insights into how to defeat him. rferl.org/a/russia-bruta…
3/ Much of the reporting about the Russians in #Ukraine focusses on ‘the Russians’ as some amorphous mass. The reality is, even in barely adequate military institutions, there is organization, control, and command from the top. Military commanders matter.
Read 25 tweets
Nov 24
We are seeing more frequent references to the potential for Chinese action to seize Taiwan from current and former government and military leaders. It appears the clock may be running down on deterring a conflict over Taiwan. 1/23 🧵
smh.com.au/world/asia/rud…
2/ Recently, former Australian PM Kevin Rudd described how the next five years will shape the long-term stability of the Indo-Pacific region & determine the success of U.S. efforts to deter China from taking military action against Taiwan.
3/ In June, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida warned that the Russian invasion of #Ukraine could be repeated in #Taiwan by China in the absence of unified deterrence by the U.S. and its allies. business-standard.com/article/intern…
Read 23 tweets
Nov 22
There has been a woefully inadequate debate on the lessons of Ukraine in Australia, including land combat. And nearly all commentators on tanks/armoured vehicles in this nation are poorly informed and obsessed with a narrow view of future conflict. 1/25
2/ There is a sense in the current debate that we know exactly what the next war will be. Look at the White Papers of the 1980s & 1990s to see how wrong we got it. We are repeating the same mistake by thinking we can predict the next fight. Apparently it’s only air and sea!
3/ It will result in an ADF that lacks adaptive capacity because we have only prepared it to fight at sea and in the air. Wars might be fought in these domains; they are never won there. But once removed, you cannot rebuild high level land warfighting skills quickly.
Read 25 tweets
Nov 21
This week, despite continuing Russian terror bombing in #Ukraine and an important G20 meeting in Indonesia, the possible demise of Twitter has been dominant in the feeds of many social media users. What would it mean for the war in Ukraine if Twitter dies? 1/23 Image
2/ It is an important question, given the centrality of strategic influence and information warfare to the conflict in #Ukraine. Twitter is the communication tool of choice during crises, and has featured in several previous conflicts. abc.net.au/news/2022-11-2…
3/ But the Ukraine war has seen a Cambrian explosion in the use of social media – especially Twitter – to share images & stories from inside Ukraine, to disseminate situation reports, to build crowdfunding efforts, track war crimes, and for strategic influence activities.
Read 23 tweets
Nov 19
Recently, I have been asked a lot of questions about the impact of winter on the war in #Ukraine. In some respects, this is pretty ironic; I was born & live on the flattest, dustiest & hottest continent imaginable. That said, a thread on the coming winter war in Ukraine. 1/25 🧵
2/ I wrote a short piece on this topic yesterday that you can read in full at my (free) substack. But, because I know a lot of people are on @Twitter but not substack, I thought I would post my thoughts here as well. mickryan.substack.com/p/the-winter-w…
3/ There are many historical insights on this issue. The Indian Army has been conducting high-altitude and very cold operations for a very long time. Korea and WW2 all offer lessons on how wars continue despite the onset of winter.
Read 25 tweets
Nov 16
Lots of uncertainty remains about the missiles that struck the Polish town of #Przewodow today. The reactions to this incident bear close watching. Some initial thoughts – a thread. 1/22 🧵 smh.com.au/world/europe/w…
2/ Early this morning (Australian time), two Russian missiles of a type yet to be determined slammed into this country town about 10 kilometres from the Ukrainian border. washingtonpost.com/world/2022/11/…
3/ At the same time, the Russians had been executing a large missile attack on multiple cities across #Ukraine, including the western city of Lviv.
Read 22 tweets

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