Thread by @WarintheFuture

There remains much uncertainty about the reported Ukrainian strike on Russian airbases in the past 24 hours. This appears to provide some corroboration. What does this mean for the Russo-Ukraine war? 1/15 🧵

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1599813464750686208

2/ The video in this tweet shows the alleged strikes. Thanks @Gerashchenko_en and others who have shared this.

https://twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1599672555853340672

3/ There are several important implications of this strike which are worth discussing.

4/ First, #Ukraine’s ability to undertake targeting at this distance is impressive. These bases are over 700km from Ukraine. Despite availability of commercial satellite images, targeting at this distance is difficult.

5/ The targeteers may have had third party assistance in planning the strike, but this is not a certainty. A combination of open source material, knowledge of the Russian air Defence network gaps and on the ground observation might have sufficed.

6/ Second, #Ukraine is adopting more active measures to reduce & prevent Russian missile strikes on its citizens and infrastructure. This is a logical next step. Because #Ukraine won’t strike Russian civilian targets, Russia has an asymmetric advantage with its missile attacks.

7/ Therefore, this is Ukraine’s way of saying that the Russians don’t have the asymmetric advantage with their long range missiles that they think they have.

8/ Third, the Russian airbase is a legitimate target of war for the Ukrainians. The aircraft and crews base there have conducted military operations against Ukraine and its people. It won’t stop the Russians whining about however.

9/ Fourth, where were the vaunted Russian air defenses that worried planners throughout the Cold War? Just as Kerch Bridge and other Crimea strikes have demonstrated, Russia’s defence against a determined and creative adversary have been shown to be porous.

10/ Fifth, the strike - if indeed it was a Ukrainian strike - is another demonstration of Ukraine’s confidence and will. It also shows that they will leverage their momentum in the war to continue hitting the Russians where it hurts over winter.

11/ Sixth, the Ukrainians - as they done throughout this war - will learn from this and adapt. It is unlikely to be the last time they attempt such a strike at Russian strategic forces. Thanks to @ImageSatIntl (and HT @RALee85) for this post strike image.

12/ Seventh, this is a psychological strike against Russia. This attack on a military target deep in Russia will cause consternation among a public who thought they were safely insulated from the war. It will be interesting to see the Russian propaganda machine’s reaction.

13/ Finally, Russia may need to rethink its defensive posture much further from Ukraine’s borders as a result of this strike. There are many airfields, command hubs and logistics much closer to Ukraine which are now at risk.

14/ We may learn more about this in the coming days. If indeed it was a Ukrainian strike, there are many interesting implications. But it again shows that #Ukraine has the initiative in this war, and they intend to sustain it at every level at which this war is being fought. End

15/ Thank you to the following whose images and tweets were used in this thread @ImageSatIntl @RALee85 @Gerashchenko_en @ian_matveev @MriyaReport @IAPonomarenko