There remains much uncertainty about the reported Ukrainian strike on Russian airbases in the past 24 hours. This appears to provide some corroboration. What does this mean for the Russo-Ukraine war? 1/15 🧵
2/ The video in this tweet shows the alleged strikes. Thanks @Gerashchenko_en and others who have shared this.
3/ There are several important implications of this strike which are worth discussing.
4/ First, #Ukraine’s ability to undertake targeting at this distance is impressive. These bases are over 700km from Ukraine. Despite availability of commercial satellite images, targeting at this distance is difficult. Image
5/ The targeteers may have had third party assistance in planning the strike, but this is not a certainty. A combination of open source material, knowledge of the Russian air Defence network gaps and on the ground observation might have sufficed. Image
6/ Second, #Ukraine is adopting more active measures to reduce & prevent Russian missile strikes on its citizens and infrastructure. This is a logical next step. Because #Ukraine won’t strike Russian civilian targets, Russia has an asymmetric advantage with its missile attacks.
7/ Therefore, this is Ukraine’s way of saying that the Russians don’t have the asymmetric advantage with their long range missiles that they think they have.
8/ Third, the Russian airbase is a legitimate target of war for the Ukrainians. The aircraft and crews base there have conducted military operations against Ukraine and its people. It won’t stop the Russians whining about however.
9/ Fourth, where were the vaunted Russian air defenses that worried planners throughout the Cold War? Just as Kerch Bridge and other Crimea strikes have demonstrated, Russia’s defence against a determined and creative adversary have been shown to be porous.
10/ Fifth, the strike - if indeed it was a Ukrainian strike - is another demonstration of Ukraine’s confidence and will. It also shows that they will leverage their momentum in the war to continue hitting the Russians where it hurts over winter.
11/ Sixth, the Ukrainians - as they done throughout this war - will learn from this and adapt. It is unlikely to be the last time they attempt such a strike at Russian strategic forces. Thanks to @ImageSatIntl (and HT @RALee85) for this post strike image. Image
12/ Seventh, this is a psychological strike against Russia. This attack on a military target deep in Russia will cause consternation among a public who thought they were safely insulated from the war. It will be interesting to see the Russian propaganda machine’s reaction.
13/ Finally, Russia may need to rethink its defensive posture much further from Ukraine’s borders as a result of this strike. There are many airfields, command hubs and logistics much closer to Ukraine which are now at risk.
14/ We may learn more about this in the coming days. If indeed it was a Ukrainian strike, there are many interesting implications. But it again shows that #Ukraine has the initiative in this war, and they intend to sustain it at every level at which this war is being fought. End Image
15/ Thank you to the following whose images and tweets were used in this thread @ImageSatIntl @RALee85 @Gerashchenko_en @ian_matveev @MriyaReport @IAPonomarenko

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More from @WarintheFuture

Nov 28
In the wake of the Ukrainian victory in western #Kherson, and in the midst of Russia’s ongoing terror bombing campaign against Ukrainian civil infrastructure, we should look at the man in charge of Russia's campaign. A thread on General #Surovikin. 1/25 🧵
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Nov 24
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Nov 22
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Nov 21
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Nov 16
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