Thread by @WarintheFuture

A couple of interesting points emerge from today’s statements made by Putin about Russia’s ‘special military operation’ to invade #Ukraine. 1/13 🧵

bbc.com/news/world-eur…

2/ First, the headline is the nuclear issue. Putin is walking back some of his more bellicose statements, now claiming that Russia would not use them first. This is positive (if he is genuine), but what does this really mean?

3/ He is enlarging the corner he has painted himself into with his #Ukraine invasion. Currently, he has minimal strategic room for manoeuvre. By ruling out nuclear first use, he further reduces any potential for NATO direct intervention in the war.

4/ He is also, just slightly, easing back his narrative about the conquest of Ukraine being an existential one for Russia. This gives him some wriggle room down the track should he need it.

5/ And he has probably now been presented with modelling from his military that shows the use of a few tactical nuclear weapons would have minimal battlefield impacts but they would have huge, long term strategic effects for Russia and its neighbours.

6/ The second noteworthy statement was that his invasion of #Ukraine is a ‘lengthy process.’ These words, probably chosen well in advance, are designed for a couple of audiences.

7/ The first audience is the Russian population. He is preparing them for other future potential expansions in commitment, possibly including more mobilisation phases. This has been explored in reports from @TheStudyofWar & @criticalthreats understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…

8/ Another audience would be Russian military and national security officials (as well as people like the head of Wagner). He wants to keep them on side, so Putin is saying that he is in this to win, and won’t be cutting and running. At least that is his plan at the moment!

9/ A third audience is the population of those Western nations who are supporting #Ukraine. He is again asking them if high inflation and high energy costs over the long term are worth their support to Ukraine. washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/…

10/ Finally, he is essentially saying to the governments of western nations “good luck with keeping your populations on side with this war in the next couple years, and good luck with the cost of expanding your munitions production capacity to keep up with #Ukraine’s usage.”

11/ Now, these comments could have just been spur of the moment mutterings of a tired President. But somehow I doubt it.

12/ It again underpins the need for strategic patience from the governments and populations supporting #Ukraine over winter and into 2023. And it reinforces the need to provide every bit of support possible to ensure Ukraine emerges victorious from the Russian invasion. End

13/ Thank you to the following for the images and links used in this thread: @DefenceU @BBCNews @TheStudyofWar @criticalthreats @IAPonomarenko @washingtonpost