My outlook for tankers in 2023, Spot TCE (daily earnings Eco non scrubber) average for the whole year. #tankers
VLCC: $39000😐
SUEZ: $34000🙂
AFRAS: $42000😍
LR2: $45000😍
MR: $26000 😒
VLCC: Once dust settles and new trade lanes become natural, we'll see more term liftings and less spot activity, keeping rates on a higher base but lower than the last few months.
SUEZ: With Libya and WAF at full production this should perform well and keep a balanced list elsewhere, with CPC paying a premium
AFRAMAX: Transatlantic trades and stronger intra Asian activity, Baltic displaced trades will leave some pockets of temporary higher demand in Mid East. My weapon of choice.
LR2: Those MRs from Russia to EU are gone, that trade will have to be served by LR1/2s sucking tonnage from Mid East and Asia. With the optionality to dirty up and chase the Afras market. Winner
MRs: Unless China starts pushing out diesel barrels, some 400 MRs that used to be in the Baltics will have to find employment elsewhere. USG-Latam could be the Holy Grail..
All this depends on what happens with crude pricing and how the conflict/sanctions evolve, and if finally China comes back at full speed. Not investment advic... yeah f**k it, go and load some Afras/LR2s
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Banks’ greatest appetite is for Product Tankers.These vessels are expected to keep earning well in the mid term. There are terms for spot trading vessels at 60% LTV and margins above SOFR in the region of 3.75%; for lower leverage and long-term employment, margins can go to 2.70%
Dry Bulk has become difficult. A falling market with highly variable charter rates, against a backdrop of historically high asset values, has made banks especially cautious against placing capital. Loans of below $10m are very difficult to place even at low leverage,
Black market thread:
The tricks used in #OIL trading with sanctioned countries and why it can be stopped. Sanctioned OIL trades with a massive discount to benchmarks. #OOTT
1. Going Dark
A common method to transport Iranian oil or North Korean coal with stealth is to turn off the AIS, an electronic device that pinpoints a ship’s location. Known as going dark, a vessel flicks the switch before berthing and typically reappears days later
2. Ship-to-Ship Transfers
A method that often goes hand-in-hand with going dark. A first vessel will take its clandestine cargo away from the country in question before transferring it to a waiting ship, all of this happening out of sight.