What the hell is an "arb"??
Is the difference of current price at destination and possible landed cost of a barrel, prompting a trade. Using EU as destination for Diesel, let's take a look at the components. There are import duties, renewable schemes, but for simplicity's sake.. Start with FOB price at origin, that is the spot price for a loading window in the next 10/15 days, think of "Dated Brent" if you will.
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Freight not only covers tanker rates, but also cargo insurance & volume losses while in transit, roughly 0.5% of the cargo value

Oil Physical: In harmony
Paper markets finally converged to what we are seeing in physical, if not over-corrected in Brent's case.. a quick world tour Atlantic: WTI getting expensive in part due to "pipe anxiety". In the North Sea Forties grade is setting the basket price since last week, with the curve structure aggressively flattening, this works for Asian buyers in favor to Middle East/WAF alternatives. WTI into EU struggles

𝗢𝗶𝗹 𝗣𝗵𝘆𝘀𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹: 𝗕𝗮𝗰𝗸 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗰𝗸? Atlantic: March loadings picking up pace on USGC, more cargos hitting EU a couple to China, with prompt North Sea grades seeing some local action and Asian demand. Brazil offers a weak start of the year

My outlook for tankers in 2023, Spot TCE (daily earnings Eco non scrubber) average for the whole year. #tankers
VLCC: $39000😐
SUEZ: $34000🙂
AFRAS: $42000😍
LR2: $45000😍
MR: $26000 😒 VLCC: Once dust settles and new trade lanes become natural, we'll see more term liftings and less spot activity, keeping rates on a higher base but lower than the last few months.

so... you want to be a shipowner?
Ship finance 🧵 Banks’ greatest appetite is for Product Tankers.These vessels are expected to keep earning well in the mid term. There are terms for spot trading vessels at 60% LTV and margins above SOFR in the region of 3.75%; for lower leverage and long-term employment, margins can go to 2.70%

Black market thread:
The tricks used in #OIL trading with sanctioned countries and why it can be stopped. Sanctioned OIL trades with a massive discount to benchmarks. #OOTT 1. Going Dark
A common method to transport Iranian oil or North Korean coal with stealth is to turn off the AIS, an electronic device that pinpoints a ship’s location. Known as going dark, a vessel flicks the switch before berthing and typically reappears days later