Thread by @HeliosRunner

1/ Operational situation update/ #russian_invasion in #Ukraine on December 18, 2022
Special failed war of #RussianArmy is still on its way..
On the #Ukraine side of things Some fronts line are now "stabilized" but on other areas the Ru are having some minor success.
#UkraineMap

2/ Quick recap here, & maybe come back later on if needed.
first, about #Kupiansk #Svatove
the general FEBA (frontline) seems to have remain almost the same for the last month even if extremely violent combats happened in several areas & Ru trying to push #UAarmy hard almost

3/ everywhere where there is a possible road or path to go around #ZSU defense. clearly trying to overwhelmed them and push them back, past the #Oskil river in order to gain a major control of the area & be able to have strong natural defensive line.
well. their plan failed.

4/ Also Ru are trying to go past #Kuzemivka (north and south) and gen staff reported a battle in the area of #Stelmakivka
#Стельмахівка 92623
indicating their plan is quite strong & they are ready to lose another equivalent of a BTG (in men equivalent) everyday in the area, in

5/ order to fulfill their general "plan".
I did not report last weeks but i have read several intel about a massive grouping from Russia in the north of #Kupiansk area and just behind or across the frontier. they have not been engaged yet, but they are building up something now

6/ basically their plan is quite simple in essence as they don't /can't do much right now in the "south" near #Kreminna because of the terrain and the fact Ukr are "protected" by the river.
So what Ru will try to do is very basic but "logical" too.
good thing is they

7/ won't be able to do much as the soil is not freezing at all, they don't have the ressources in mechanized forces and they totally (as explained recently) lacks proper help from drones to conduct major operations, & on top of that they lack ammo (even if still plenty).
but

8/ it is also "fair" to admit that they have switch somehow the way they are "advancing" directly under cover of direct fire support and even if losing lots of men, they are progressing in some areas.

Note #Novoselivske #Новоселівське apparently still remains under #ZSU control

9/ reminder : so basically Ru would like to go back in early Oct line to begin with, & then like in may/June, push down until the #Siverskyi donets (river)
(one more time) & establish themselves down there.
so don't be "fouled" with their real tactics.

https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1576980057964232709

10/ Same things goes for the #Svatove to #Kreminna area. Ru still sending all the fresh troops they can in order to "keep" Ukr along the river, & gain full control south of #Svatove but UkR still have gained some good grounds in some places
Also no more fights south of #Kreminna

11/ Apparently #Karmazynivka is supposed to be under Ru control.. but the gen area seems not 100% secure by Ru. so i let the area in "doubt".

ok what we do know is that #Ploschanka & #Chervonopopivka have been shelled by Ru & r now supposed to be under Ukr control, but hardly.

12/ I haven't seen much confirmations from a gain or a true loss out there from good sources (both way), so i would say that the situation may remain "fluid" down there.
some talk about #ZSU even in #Pishchane #Піщане or south in #Zhytlivka but nothing to confirm this at ALL!

13/ small reminder there to understand why it"s (relatively) important for Ukr to "lock" this entire position in order to be able the to try to seize #Kreminna or even create a bridge head in order to push later on to the most important #Starobilsk

https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1598773690505711616

14/ about #Starobilsk

https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1571047075915366402

15/ next : The situation in #Bilohorivka is still slightly moving but UKR remain master. Same in #Spirne
Holding here for months even if "destroy".
Ru is trying to push "south" to #Vyimka battle was recorded there.
#UAarmy stand strong.
#UkraineMap

16/ at one point Ru claimed to have the total control of the area, but they were pushed back. i can' t say for sure that UKr are indeed in the city itself (like Spirne) or in the area, but for sure, Ru were not able to go "through" these places.. so they are failing there 4 sure

17/ now : The situation North East of #Bakhmut is extremely difficult & Ukr forces are doing "miracles" everywhere because it is still clearly one of the main objective in the area.
they are still not IN the city itself.
But significant gain were made in several other villages

18/ like #Yakovlivka or #Soledar and even in the area between #Bakhmut near #Pidhorodne #Підгородне (still holding and very important places for the gen situation)
i've read lots of talk from Ru dreaming to get there to force the defenders of #Bakhmustke to move out..
because

19/ if they can reach this area they will be able to shell in the "back" of the defenders and then it would be quite untenable, hence the Ru would suddenly gain total control of the area in "one shot".
so this area if not often talked about is really an important place to keep!

20/ now if all the villages are taken by Ru in the coming weeks as they r moving slowly but steadily though - this is not going to be "dramatic" because there is 2 to 5 click West a natural line of defense with the #Bakhmutovka river!
so, it could help to grind 20k more Ru here

21/ moving to #Bakhmut south also the same goes there too but Ru have clearly made some real gain there & took almost all the high grounds but since then, #UAarmy forces have managed to contained & break the waves of assailants.
no breaking through in #Ivanhrad is recorded..

22/ now there r still some very important places for #Ukraine to control in order to still have some "reasonable" control over #Bakhmut & even over #Niuyork by "extension".
but i'll do a specific thread another day about that. lot to say here.

23/ now #Niuyork #Avdiivka they are slightly "going at it" but nothing for "real ". no heavy equipment to push trough & shitty soldiers to accomplish anything. & still no night advantage so stuck to stupid "day walk".
so situation remains the same from a month ago or so.

24/ as for the situation around #Permovaiske stays the same, but some gain were made by Ru army in 2 areas in #Optyne & #vodyane but basically bc of terrain & next line of defense is not going to be in their favor.
right now rivers are running
Also they don't have good equipement

25/ basically they don't have what is needed to go through all the Ukr defense lines there and it shows, and it will show more and more as they (Ru) have less and less -
but they can through lots of dead men there. no "chance"

reminder 4 km in months!!!

https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1554900466202550272

26/ now about the real "gain" (lol) of the day by the Russian :
it was today reported that "finally" #Mariinka #Maryinka #Марїнка downtown (& maybe more) was finally seized by Russians.
so Ukr would fall back to next defensive lines (after 8 years of war not only 10 months!)

27/ here a quick reminder of the situation (for the ones who are not fully aware of the situation) that also shows the preexisting " zone de demarcation" and the "outstanding" progress it is for Ru (disclaimer : nope)
because as they were at war for all

https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1562152579919912960

28/ these last years they have (like past Pisky as explained several times and it shows) several other layer of defenses back #Mariinka lots.
so they won't be able to gain much more gain in coming months (like elsewhere they can dream of 4km of gain for 20k more losses.. there)

29/ The about #Vuhledar area. since last month - absolutely no real progress was made by Ru, after a huge "push through" they are now also "stuck" there, with no more real air support /arty or enough materials or men to make the difference.
as i said last month : #Pyrrhus victory

30/ and that's it for the recap with the maps today.
still some other "small" reports near #GrandNovosilka but nothing major.
also nothing of importance along the #Dniepro river.
so... next part of the recap in couple hours now...
i need a break.... Cheers!