Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/9 - “China is now facing what is likely the world's largest #COVID19 surge of the pandemic. China's public health officials say that possibly 800 Mn people could be infected with the coronavirus over the next few months.”
npr.org/sections/goats…

2/9 - “That means about 10% of the planet's population may become infected over the course of the next 90 days.”

3/9 - “This surge is going to come very fast, unfortunately. That's the worst thing,"says Cowling, Hong Kong. "If it was slower, China would have time to prepare. But this is so fast. In Beijing, there's already a load of cases and in other cities because it's spreading so fast.”

4/9 - “In early 2020, the R number was about 2 or 3. During the omicron surge in the U.S. last winter, the R number had jumped up to about 10 or 11, studies have found. Scientists estimate the R number is currently a whopping 16 in China durng this surge."

5/9 - “This is a really high level of transmissibility. That's why China couldn't keep their #ZeroCOVIDpolicy going. The virus is just too transmissible even for them," Cowling says.”

6/9 - “The virus is spreading faster in China than omicron spread in surges elsewhere. Last winter, cases doubled every three days or so. Now in China, the doubling time is like hours. And so the hospitals are going to come under pressure possibly by the end of this month."

7/9 - “About 90% of the population over age 18 have been vaccinated with two shots of a Chinese vaccine. This course offers good protection against severe disease, but it doesn't protect against an infection.”

8/9 - “Furthermore, adults >60 need three shots of the vaccine to protect against severe disease. Only about 50% of older people have received that third shot, NPR has reported. And that leaves about 11 million people still at high risk for hospitalization and death.”

9/9 - “In China, there's such a large geographic disparity in terms of health-care infrastructure, ICU beds and medical professionals. Most of the hospitals with advanced treatment technologies are located in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and all the big metropolitan areas.”