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Antoine FLAHAULT

@FLAHAULT

Dec 20

1/6 - On apprendra peut-être dans quelques mois que le #SARSCoV2, le virus de la grippe, le VRS sont quasi-exclusivement transmis par aérosols en lieux clos, mal ventilés, bondés où l’on passe plus de 15 minutes. Les autres contaminations seraient juste anecdotiques, rarissimes.

2/6 - On respire 12 fois par minutes, en 15 minutes, on peut se contaminer et se recontaminer 180 fois en respirant dans un nuage d’aérosols contaminés dans une pièce mal ventilée. Ailleurs, l’exposition est tellement furtive qu’elle reste anecdotique

3/6 - Anecdotiques les contaminations directes, les contaminations à moins de 2 mètres, même si la personne en face est contaminée, même si le virus parvient 1, 2 voire 3 fois à vos muqueuses respiratoires. Contre les aérosols en lieux clos, 180 fois de suite, il n’y a pas photo

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Antoine FLAHAULT

@FLAHAULT

Dec 20

1/9 - “Up to one million people in China could die from #COVID19 over the next few months, according to some of the first projections since the government lifted many of its strict #ZeroCovid measures.”
nature.com/articles/d4158…

2/9 - “However, two studies find that the number of deaths could be reduced by giving most of the population a fourth vaccine dose, combined with a high level of adherence to masking and reimposition of temporary restrictions on social interactions when death rates surge.“

3/9 - “Officially, the number of reported cases has been dropping since late November because of the changes in testing requirements, but there are indications that infections in some regions have risen rapidly.”

Read 9 tweets

Antoine FLAHAULT

@FLAHAULT

Dec 19

1/5 - La situation du #COVID19 en Chine est particulièrement préoccupante parce que sa population a une très faible immunité hybride et sa population âgée et à risque de formes graves, qui reste mal protégée par le vaccin, affronte la pire vague de l’histoire de cette pandémie.

2/5 - Les souches circulantes semblent être des sous-variants d’Omicron (ex. BF.7) très transmissibles en Chine mais circulant actuellement en Occident sans qu’ils ne se soient distingués ni par une transmissibilité ni par une virulence particulièrement anormale.

3/5 - Le risque de ce tsunami épidémique en Chine est d’abord une saturation rapide du système de santé, avec un excès de mortalité dû au #COVID19, mais aussi dû aux autres pathologies non ou insuffisamment traitées. Outre le risque sanitaire il y a des risques socio-économiques.

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Antoine FLAHAULT

@FLAHAULT

Dec 19

1/9 - “China is now facing what is likely the world's largest #COVID19 surge of the pandemic. China's public health officials say that possibly 800 Mn people could be infected with the coronavirus over the next few months.”
npr.org/sections/goats…

2/9 - “That means about 10% of the planet's population may become infected over the course of the next 90 days.”

3/9 - “This surge is going to come very fast, unfortunately. That's the worst thing,"says Cowling, Hong Kong. "If it was slower, China would have time to prepare. But this is so fast. In Beijing, there's already a load of cases and in other cities because it's spreading so fast.”

Read 9 tweets

Antoine FLAHAULT

@FLAHAULT

Dec 19

1/9 - “Since the start of the pandemic, Africa has reported more than 12 million #COVID19 cases and 255,000 deaths—totals that seem vast, but pale in comparison to reported cases and deaths among countries in North America, Europe, and Asia.”
bu.edu/sph/news/artic…

2/9 - “Africa’s low death count has baffled health experts and government officials, but growing data contrasts previous, widespread assertions over the last two years that #COVID19 spared the continent. [Its] death toll is substantially higher than official records indicate.”

3/9 - “A study found that nearly 90% of deceased individuals at a crowded morgue in Lusaka, Zambia were infected with #COVID19 during peak transmission periods between July 2020-June 2021 - and only 10% of these individuals tested positive while alive.”
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

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Antoine FLAHAULT

@FLAHAULT

Dec 18

1/9 - “Public schools that kept universal masking requirements in place last year had significantly fewer #COVID19 cases than their counterparts that lifted mandates as state policies changed, according to a study published in the NEJM.”
washingtonpost.com/education/2022…

2/9 - “The study, which followed schools in the Boston region during the 2021-2022 academic year, found that the end of mask requirements was associated with an additional 45 #COVID19 cases per 1,000 students and staff members — or nearly 12,000 cases from March to June.”

3/9 - “School systems in Boston and Chelsea, Mass., had stayed with universal masking even after Massachusetts officials rescinded the statewide requirement in February. But 70 nearby school districts did away with masking mandates.”

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