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@Tendar

Dec 28

You will find in many Russian sources the admission that one of the shortcomings of the Russian government is the lack of defining the goals of the war.

To clarify this for you:
There aren't any because Putin never expected this war in the first place. #Ukraine #Russia

Secondly, Putin cannot define any war goals because he is no strategist. He is a tactician and in that he reflects his absolute aimless rambling on the battlefield, in some instances like in Lyman even personally calling the field commanders, ordering them "to fight til the end".

All what remains - from his perspective - is that his enemies wear down. That of course is no strategy as well, but pure desperation.

Surely if he'd go on TV and openly say that this is his "strategy" then the after-show party would be him hanging from the Kremlin wall.

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Dec 23

A Russian source has issued this video showing advancing Ukrainian troops getting targeted by artillery (looks like they missed).

What’s more interesting, however, is the position. It is near Ploshchanka and I might have already geolocated it. #Ukraine #Luhansk #Ploshchanka

It is hard to geolocate it, but this is my best take (85% sure), but there are many coinciding lines where I'm fairly certain to have a match.

Bringing us to where those troops are now exactly as well as the overflying Russian drone. The coordinates of the troops are:

49°12'8.42"N, 38° 5'6.76"E

The drone is fairly far and not above Ploshchanka:

49°12'57.01"N, 38° 5'16.21"E

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@Tendar

Dec 18

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1602703461782618147

If you've noticed that Russians are making virtually no progress around Bakhmut, even losing ground in the south, then you are right. They wasted their resources by frontally attacking the city, most notably at Opytne and East. Even Russian propagandists are getting dismayed. 1/7

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1602703461782618147

Their local gain at Yakovlivka, which should have been their main thrust in order to be successful, comes way too late to make a difference. Ukrainian troops still control the areas north of this town and reinforcements from Kherson are positioning. 2/7

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1603893472049643522?s=20&t=gjQDNK2ll_1SxPnLn7_9nQ

Moreover, they already falter at the southern part of this operation and even fall back, which emphasized once more how obsessed Russians are with Bakhmut itself. They want it so badly that it will be their undoing, as I predicted it. 3/7

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1604208035316236288?s=20&t=gjQDNK2ll_1SxPnLn7_9nQ

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@Tendar

Dec 12

First footage of the hit bridge in Russian-occupied Melitopol. #Ukraine #Melitopol #Zaporizhzhia

I'm pretty sure that this the bridge leading over the Molochna channel.

Coordinates:

46°50'31.84"N, 35°24'27.09"E

Sorry for sound problems in the first video. Here (hopefully) with sound. #Melitopol #Ukraine #Zaporizhzhia

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@Tendar

Dec 9

Instead of trying to encircle Bakhmut and slowly taking it, the Russian High command seems to have decided to launch a frontal attack on the city itself, proving my suspicion that Putin wants the city as fast as possible even when this means highest rate of own casualties. 1/8

It is the Russian version of shock and awe where everything is thrown into the meat grinder in order to overwhelm the enemy because there is no better option. This tactic is as reckless as it is desperate. You chose this only when you have a very limited time window. 2/8

I believe that the haste comes from two reasons.

1.) The Russian reserves are limited. You cannot sustain such a high intensity operation for a long time.

2.) Winter hasn't fully arrived yet. The Russian army is not ready for it. A snow storm would scythe them entirely. 3/5

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@Tendar

Dec 8

There are some western leaders such as Macron who make no sense when talking about “security guarantees for Russia”. Putin has made clear in numerous instances that he does not recognize Ukraine as a state. So, it has zero to do with security.

Even when we wouldn’t know that it is non sense because any security architecture is based on a status quo whatever that means and which is based on the current state of events. Russia under Putin is not interested in that but in the compete opposite.

We are dealing with a deeply revanchist Russia under Putin which wants to destroy the status quo, including any security architecture in order to implement its imperial structure from the 19th and 20th Century. Any offer for peace or ceasefire without a Russian withdrawal…

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