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Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
@DrEricDing
Dec 30, 2022 • 27 tweets • 24 min read • Read on X
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⚠️NEXT BIG ONE—CDC has royally screwed up—unreleased data shows #XBB15, a super variant, surged to 40% US (CDC unreported for weeks!) & now causing hospitalization surges in NY/NE.➡️XBB15–a new recombinant strain—is both more immune evasive & better at infecting than #BQ & XBB.🧵 ImageImage
2) Multiple models show #XBB15 is much worse in transmission R value and infection rate than previous variants — faster by LEAPS and BOUNDS. @JPWeiland did some the earliest models on #XBB15 watching data in NY. it has only grown worse nationwide. ImageImageImage
3) in fact, when @JPWeiland first modeled #XBB15 before Xmas, the data shows XBB15 was 108% faster than the previously king #BQ1 variant. But with more data, XBB15 has further accelerated to now being 120% faster! ImageImage
4) Regarding the data — notice that #XBB15 was not reported last week or any prior week! ➡️However, my source within the CDC information network let me know that the CDC somehow has not been reporting that XBB15 was over 1% for several weeks. CDC didn’t break it out as promised. ImageImage
5) this exact incompetence at the CDC in not breaking out a new variant happened 2 months ago too… when I first warned about it—when the @CDCgov didn’t break out new variants over 1%. But this is now worse—XBB15 is going from unreported to 40% overnight on CDC website! (Soon??)
6) And indeed, my SCOOP on the @CDCgov’s unpublished data and disastrous reporting delay was indeed confirmed 2 months ago. I was told by sources that CDC’s leadership was upset at me for posting leaked data—they promised to do better. Now EPIC FAIL AGAIN!
open.substack.com/pub/drericding…
7) I previously warned about XBB from Singapore. But people need to realize #XBB15 is likely an American-originated recombination variant that is 96% faster (worse) than old XBB. The XBB15 popped up in the New York area in October and been causing trouble since.
8) New York has been suffering the largest #COVID19 hospitalization in almost a year. And it’s not coming down quickly like in recent waves Omicron waves. That’s because #XBB15 is not your typical Omicron - it’s a special recombination mixture variant that is further mutated. Image
9) Wastewater #SARSCoV2 virus concentrations are now the second highest of any wave— the highest since the initial Omicron wave, especially in the Northeast US. And it’s still climbing. Again, the poop 💩 data doesn’t lie.

HT @BiobotAnalytics

biobot.io/data/ ImageImage
10) So let’s validate this #XBB15-driving hospitalization surge hypothesis—where else in XBB15 now dominant? ➡️ In Connecticut. And is Hospitalization surging in CT recently? Yes. ImageImage
11) Need more proof? Validate this #XBB15-driving hospitalization surge hypothesis—where else in XBB15 now dominant in New England? In Massachusetts. And is Hospitalization surging in MA recently too? Yes. Just like NY and CT. Three separate states — all #XBB15 dominant. ImageImage
12) we know that #XBB15 is one of the most evasive variants known to date — it’s on par with our ability to neutralize distant cousin SARS1 from decades ago. That means it’s bad. But evading neutralization isn’t everything—it’s also about success in infection and binding cells… Image
13) Thus, if we look at the ability of #XBB15 in binding ACE2 cell receptor… XBB15 is much better (bad) in binding affinity to ACE2 than both old XBB & better than #BQ11. Note— Ba275, while good ACE2 binding, is not that evasive. ➡️XBB15 hence worse on 2 fronts!

HT @yunlong_cao Image
14) Let me translate the above for folks—#XBB15 is:

📌one of the most immunity-evasive variants to date

📌one of the best variants for entry and invading human cells.

📌Appears to spread much faster than old XBB or BQ

📌Causes hospitalizations wherever it’s dominant.

Got it? Image
15) Many people asking if the older Wuhan 1.0 or Bivalent Omicron vaccines will still work? I say that the #bivalent BA5 (used in US) & bivalent BA1 (used in UK) likely has some efficacy. But unclear how much because #XBB15 is a special recombination of BA2 strains—don’t know.
16) I’m going to pause for the night and update folks tomorrow. Hopefully @CDCgov will get their act together and release the startling #XBB15 data soon with more details. Because I’m staring at the shocking #XBB15 data—I can’t believe @CDCDirector hasn’t sounded the alarm yet! Image
17) I will update the post with more details soon. My posts on COVID are free. Getting scoops and CDC insider memos come at enormous personal resources and energy. Hope worthwhile for folks. Stay tuned for more. Please subscribe — FREE — for updates.
drericding.substack.com/subscribe
18) Typo in post #11 above— here are the correct #XBB15 variant surge and MA hospitalization pair. I had posted NJ’s #XBB15 with MA hospital by mistake. Here is also NJ’s #COVID hospitalization. All bad. ImageImageImage
19) where else is #XBB15 being found in the US? All states bordering New York and in New England, but also beginning to be seen in the South and in California (which does a lot of sequencing).

@RajlabN has the best US variant dashboard— better than CDC! public.tableau.com/app/profile/ra… ImageImage
20) How is #XBB15 surging in UK 🇬🇧?

➡️ Suddenly went from 0% to 4.3% in just one week! That’s a fast takeoff… expect it to be double digits next week.

HT @jneill Image
21) NEW—it seems #XBB has been found in China🇨🇳. The sequencing data (submitted by scientists there, not by the govt) shows #XBB1 is close to ~ 10% in Shanghai—but unclear yet if it’s #XBB15.

If it is #XBB15–it is so fast—it could swamp out any new China variant.

HT @dfocosi Image
22) #XBB15 is surging incredibly fast in the UK 🇬🇧 too…

HT @chrischirp Image
23) Wastewater #SARSCoV2 viral levels in both Northern Boston and Southern Boston now the highest since last winter’s Omicron. And it is still exponentially climbing.

HT @JuliaRaifman Image
24) the above wastewater is almost certainly #XBB15 — and same with the **doubling** of #COVID19 hospitalizations in MA in just 1 month. This #XBB15 surge will likely go global. That’s why XBB15 is already been nicknamed “The Kraken”. The WHO needs to give it a new Greek letter. Image
25) 📍CONFIRMED—at last, @CDCgov has posted the new bad #XBB15 variant numbers — and it seems they did it a day earlier than planned (their website says Dec 31st)—maybe it was under public pressure? ➡️The new data now confirms the wide spread of #XBB15 nationwide—Look at the map! ImageImage
26) To be clear— #XBB15 is by far the “worst of both worlds” in terms of both existing immunity escape & binding to ACE2 receptor—allowing it enhanced ability infect human cells. This is why it is nicknamed “The Kraken” by @TRyanGregory - and called a super variant. Be vigilant.
27) Unreleased data on XBB15, a super variant that is more immune evasive and better at infecting, surged to 40% of US cases. SCOOP on the spread of this new #COVID19 variant's surge to 40% that went unreported by CDC for 4 weeks. (free to all subscibers)
drericding.substack.com/p/the-next-big…

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More from @DrEricDing

Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Jun 16
📍 THE 17 FIRED MEMBERS OF CDC’s VACCINE ADVISORY COMMITTEE (ACIP) speak out…

📍“As former ACIP members, we are deeply concerned that these destabilizing decisions, made without clear rationale, may roll back the achievements of US immunization policy, impact people’s access to lifesaving vaccines, and ultimately put US families at risk of dangerous and preventable illnesses.” 🔥

Full text:

Vaccines are one of the greatest global public health achievements. Vaccine recommendations have been critical to the global eradication of smallpox and the elimination of polio, measles, rubella, and congenital rubella syndrome in the US. They have also dramatically decreased cases of hepatitis, meningitis, mumps, pertussis (whooping cough), pneumonia, tetanus, and varicella (chickenpox), and prevented cancers caused by hepatitis B virus and human papillomaviruses.1 Recent scientific advancements enabled the accelerated development, production, and evaluation of COVID-19 vaccines, leveraging novel technologies that are estimated to have prevented approximately 1.6 million hospitalizations and 235 000 deaths in the US alone.2
For more than 60 years, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP)—codified in the federal regulations (42 USC 217a: advisory councils or committees)—has served as a panel of experts that reviews the most up-to-date evidence on vaccines and monoclonal antibodies (eg, against respiratory syncytial virus [RSV]), providing sound recommendations to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) regarding how vaccines should be used. ACIP recommendations are the cornerstone of the immunization program in this country. First, they serve as guidance and are the national standard for the use of Food and Drug Administration (FDA) authorized and licensed vaccines, providing a unified and trusted approach to vaccinations for the diverse array of immunization providers across the US. Second, they ensure science-based and tested immunization schedules that are optimized for well-timed protection against serious diseases. Third, the recommendations affect insurance coverage and safeguard broad access for vaccines. Fourth, ACIP’s continued monitoring of disease epidemiology and scrutiny of vaccine safety inform timely updates to recommendations that have maintained the trust and protection of the population. This transparent and ongoing surveillance of vaccines is one of the most stringent around the world, historically making the deliberations and decisions of this committee a beacon for immunization programs globally, while also serving as the foundation for recommendations harmonized with leading medical organizations in the US.3,4
ACIP committee members have always been selected through a rigorous process based on their expertise in immunology, epidemiology, pediatrics, obstetrics, internal and family medicine, geriatrics, infectious diseases, and public health. Historically, committee members were chosen because they worked at hospitals, clinics, health departments, universities, and other organizations where they dedicated themselves to caring for patients, conducting research, and helping to prevent and treat infectious diseases. Members’ deep understanding of immunization issues ensured that vaccine policies were grounded in scientific evidence, aligned with the needs of economically, socially, and medically diverse US communities, and always considered the public value, trust, and acceptability of vaccines.
Despite recent suggestions to the contrary, health care providers and the US public trust ACIP. For the past 18 years, the National Immunization Survey has shown that 99 of every 100 children in the US have received at least some recommended vaccines by 2 years of age, consistent with acceptance of ACIP recommendations implemented by trusted clinicians (National Immunization Survey - Childof Healthy People 2030).…Image
2) Full text part 2:

This does not suggest the population is so distrustful that it warrants dismantling the process by which vaccines have been recommended. ACIP standard procedures have minimized the risk of alleged conflicts of interest and biases. For decades, members of ACIP have undergone a thorough application and review process to participate. Proposed members submitted letters of support from other known experts and peers, completed an interview process, underwent a background check, and disclosed financial interests that might be considered a conflict, including any professional or financial relationships of immediate family members. Historically, it has taken up to 2 years for nominees to be approved to join ACIP.
Once part of the committee, ACIP members spent significant time preparing for meetings, reviewing the scientific evidence, and chairing work groups that, along with many CDC public health officials, led to the final recommendations that were determined during public meetings, which also included opportunities for public comment. Recordings of these meetings, agendas, and presentations were publicly available. Additionally, members agreed to ongoing monitoring and disclosure throughout their tenure. For example, potential conflicts of interest were reviewed throughout their time on the committee. Statements about potential conflicts were required during each meeting and before each vote, and members recused themselves from voting if any conflicts were identified. These disclosures have also recently been posted on the CDC website for public scrutiny. ACIP was among the most stringent and transparent of the federal committees, and we hope those criteria will apply to any new members joining the committee.
The abrupt dismissal of the entire membership of the ACIP, along with its executive secretary, on June 9, 2025, the appointment of 8 new ACIP members just 2 days later, and the recent reduction of CDC staff dedicated to immunizations have left the US vaccine program critically weakened.5,6 These actions have stripped the program of the institutional knowledge and continuity that have been essential to its success over decades. Notably, the ACIP charter specifies that committee members serve overlapping terms to ensure continuity and avoid precisely the disruption that will now ensue. The termination of all members and its leadership in a single action undermines the committee’s capacity to operate effectively and efficiently, aside from raising questions about competence.
Compounding these concerns, recent changes to COVID-19 vaccine policy, made directly by the HHS secretary and released on social media, appear to have bypassed the standard, transparent, and evidence-based review process.7 Such actions reflect a troubling disregard for the scientific integrity that has historically guided US immunization strategy. The newly stated strategy to replace ACIP members with individuals who will “exercise independent judgment, refuse to serve as a rubber stamp, and foster a culture of critical inquiry” is already leading to warnings by academic and scientific institutions, professional organizations, and the public who for decades have known well that these sought-after qualities precisely characterized the now-dismissed members of the ACIP.5
3) Part 3:

As former ACIP members, we are deeply concerned that these destabilizing decisions, made without clear rationale, may roll back the achievements of US immunization policy, impact people’s access to lifesaving vaccines, and ultimately put US families at risk of dangerous and preventable illnesses. Vaccines and the anti-RSV monoclonal antibodies are lifesaving, and people in the US deserve to have recommendations and broad access to use them to prevent serious diseases. In this age of government efficiency, the US public needs to know that the routine vaccination of approximately 117 million children from 1994-2023 likely prevented around 508 million lifetime cases of illness, 32 million hospitalizations, and 1 129 000 deaths, at a net savings of $540 billion in direct costs and $2.7 trillion in societal costs.8Finally, as individuals, we remain committed to evidence-based vaccine policy, both through our ongoing work in immunization science, public health, and medical education, and by supporting future efforts to keep America healthy that uphold scientific rigor and the public’s trust.
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
May 8
⚠️Tariffs On Medications Will Make America Sick

We might soon see the Trump WH impose tariffs on pharmaceuticals—patients will suffer and die.

During the past few weeks, President Trump’s on-again, off-again tariff wars have rattled the stock market, decimated many Americans’ retirement funds, and promised to send grocery prices soaring—and his administration hasn’t even gotten to critical pharmaceutical tariffs yet. But that will likely be the next shoe to drop.
Trump exempted pharmaceuticals from his first round of tariffs in early April, but recently declared that he intends to impose “a major tariff” on imported medicines “very shortly.” These tariffs, he claims, will prompt pharmaceutical companies to leave countries including China and India and begin “opening up their plants all over the place.”
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said in a television interview in mid-April that these tariffs are coming in the “next month or two.”

What will this mean? 

Read on:
progressive.org/op-eds/tariffs…Image
2) The majority of brand name drugs used in the United States are imported. Even generic drugs often rely on ingredients and direct imports from China, including pain relievers and cardiovascular drugs used by millions.
3) The United States was already facing a drug shortage crisis before Trump’s tariff announcement. Now, his policies will drive upnot only the cost of medicines, but also other health care items such as X-ray machines and medical instruments.
Read 8 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Apr 10
It’s a trap: CATCH 22—if you register, ICE will deport you. If you don’t register, you’ve now committed a crime for the first time, and ICE will deport you. Trump doesn’t care if you’ve paid all taxes and followed all laws—ICE will deport you.

apnews.com/article/illega…Image
2) The Department of Homeland Security announced that it was mandating that all people in the United States illegally register with the federal government, and said those who didn’t self-report could face fines or prosecution. ***Failure to register is considered a crime***
3) Registration will be mandatory for everyone 14 and older without legal status. People registering have to provide their fingerprints and address, and parents and guardians of anyone under age 14 must ensure they registered. The registration process also applies to Canadians who are in the U.S. for more than 30 days, such as so-called snowbirds who spend winter months in places like Florida.
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Apr 3
Now economists know how scientists felt back when he pushed “hydroxychloroquine”
2) HCQ preventing COVID deaths has been debunked— and it’s now been linked with deaths.

@JoshuaPCohen1
forbes.com/sites/joshuaco…Image
@JoshuaPCohen1 3) JPMorgan on Trump Tariffs: “The largest tax increase since 1968” Image
Read 6 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 28
My god—Earthquake (a Richter ~7.7) causes a skyscraper to collapse in Bangkok. Hope all the construction workers made it out.
2) this skyscraper collapse was captured from a distant car’s dashcam while on a highway

3) another view of the collapse. For those who lived through 9/11, this collapse is a bit triggering.
Read 5 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 27
Welp—kiss public health & medical research infrastructure in America goodbye for the next 4 years. RFK Jr plans to cut 10,000 jobs from Trump HHS. Image
2) this will not make America healthy again… not by a long shot. So dangerous and irresponsible.
3) “Kennedy is set to announce Thursday the planned changes, which include axing 10,000 full-time employees spread across departments tasked with responding to disease outbreaks, approving new drugs, providing insurance for the poorest Americans and more”.
Read 5 tweets

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