⚠️NEXT BIG ONE—CDC has royally screwed up—unreleased data shows #XBB15, a super variant, surged to 40% US (CDC unreported for weeks!) & now causing hospitalization surges in NY/NE.➡️XBB15–a new recombinant strain—is both more immune evasive & better at infecting than #BQ & XBB.🧵
2) Multiple models show #XBB15 is much worse in transmission R value and infection rate than previous variants — faster by LEAPS and BOUNDS. @JPWeiland did some the earliest models on #XBB15 watching data in NY. it has only grown worse nationwide.
3) in fact, when @JPWeiland first modeled #XBB15 before Xmas, the data shows XBB15 was 108% faster than the previously king #BQ1 variant. But with more data, XBB15 has further accelerated to now being 120% faster!
4) Regarding the data — notice that #XBB15 was not reported last week or any prior week! ➡️However, my source within the CDC information network let me know that the CDC somehow has not been reporting that XBB15 was over 1% for several weeks. CDC didn’t break it out as promised.
5) this exact incompetence at the CDC in not breaking out a new variant happened 2 months ago too… when I first warned about it—when the @CDCgov didn’t break out new variants over 1%. But this is now worse—XBB15 is going from unreported to 40% overnight on CDC website! (Soon??)
6) And indeed, my SCOOP on the @CDCgov’s unpublished data and disastrous reporting delay was indeed confirmed 2 months ago. I was told by sources that CDC’s leadership was upset at me for posting leaked data—they promised to do better. Now EPIC FAIL AGAIN! open.substack.com/pub/drericding…
7) I previously warned about XBB from Singapore. But people need to realize #XBB15 is likely an American-originated recombination variant that is 96% faster (worse) than old XBB. The XBB15 popped up in the New York area in October and been causing trouble since.
8) New York has been suffering the largest #COVID19 hospitalization in almost a year. And it’s not coming down quickly like in recent waves Omicron waves. That’s because #XBB15 is not your typical Omicron - it’s a special recombination mixture variant that is further mutated.
9) Wastewater #SARSCoV2 virus concentrations are now the second highest of any wave— the highest since the initial Omicron wave, especially in the Northeast US. And it’s still climbing. Again, the poop 💩 data doesn’t lie.
10) So let’s validate this #XBB15-driving hospitalization surge hypothesis—where else in XBB15 now dominant? ➡️ In Connecticut. And is Hospitalization surging in CT recently? Yes.
11) Need more proof? Validate this #XBB15-driving hospitalization surge hypothesis—where else in XBB15 now dominant in New England? In Massachusetts. And is Hospitalization surging in MA recently too? Yes. Just like NY and CT. Three separate states — all #XBB15 dominant.
12) we know that #XBB15 is one of the most evasive variants known to date — it’s on par with our ability to neutralize distant cousin SARS1 from decades ago. That means it’s bad. But evading neutralization isn’t everything—it’s also about success in infection and binding cells…
13) Thus, if we look at the ability of #XBB15 in binding ACE2 cell receptor… XBB15 is much better (bad) in binding affinity to ACE2 than both old XBB & better than #BQ11. Note— Ba275, while good ACE2 binding, is not that evasive. ➡️XBB15 hence worse on 2 fronts!
14) Let me translate the above for folks—#XBB15 is:
📌one of the most immunity-evasive variants to date
📌one of the best variants for entry and invading human cells.
📌Appears to spread much faster than old XBB or BQ
📌Causes hospitalizations wherever it’s dominant.
Got it?
15) Many people asking if the older Wuhan 1.0 or Bivalent Omicron vaccines will still work? I say that the #bivalent BA5 (used in US) & bivalent BA1 (used in UK) likely has some efficacy. But unclear how much because #XBB15 is a special recombination of BA2 strains—don’t know.
16) I’m going to pause for the night and update folks tomorrow. Hopefully @CDCgov will get their act together and release the startling #XBB15 data soon with more details. Because I’m staring at the shocking #XBB15 data—I can’t believe @CDCDirector hasn’t sounded the alarm yet!
17) I will update the post with more details soon. My posts on COVID are free. Getting scoops and CDC insider memos come at enormous personal resources and energy. Hope worthwhile for folks. Stay tuned for more. Please subscribe — FREE — for updates. drericding.substack.com/subscribe
18) Typo in post #11 above— here are the correct #XBB15 variant surge and MA hospitalization pair. I had posted NJ’s #XBB15 with MA hospital by mistake. Here is also NJ’s #COVID hospitalization. All bad.
19) where else is #XBB15 being found in the US? All states bordering New York and in New England, but also beginning to be seen in the South and in California (which does a lot of sequencing).
21) NEW—it seems #XBB has been found in China🇨🇳. The sequencing data (submitted by scientists there, not by the govt) shows #XBB1 is close to ~ 10% in Shanghai—but unclear yet if it’s #XBB15.
If it is #XBB15–it is so fast—it could swamp out any new China variant.
23) Wastewater #SARSCoV2 viral levels in both Northern Boston and Southern Boston now the highest since last winter’s Omicron. And it is still exponentially climbing.
24) the above wastewater is almost certainly #XBB15 — and same with the **doubling** of #COVID19 hospitalizations in MA in just 1 month. This #XBB15 surge will likely go global. That’s why XBB15 is already been nicknamed “The Kraken”. The WHO needs to give it a new Greek letter.
25) 📍CONFIRMED—at last, @CDCgov has posted the new bad #XBB15 variant numbers — and it seems they did it a day earlier than planned (their website says Dec 31st)—maybe it was under public pressure? ➡️The new data now confirms the wide spread of #XBB15 nationwide—Look at the map!
26) To be clear— #XBB15 is by far the “worst of both worlds” in terms of both existing immunity escape & binding to ACE2 receptor—allowing it enhanced ability infect human cells. This is why it is nicknamed “The Kraken” by @TRyanGregory - and called a super variant. Be vigilant.
27) Unreleased data on XBB15, a super variant that is more immune evasive and better at infecting, surged to 40% of US cases. SCOOP on the spread of this new #COVID19 variant's surge to 40% that went unreported by CDC for 4 weeks. (free to all subscibers) drericding.substack.com/p/the-next-big…
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Incredibly frustrating that the @USDA again failed to include basic information about H5N1 genetic sequences from cows. All data had dates and locations scrubbed out—only saying “USA” & “2024”, which is useless for scientists to analyze for mutation rates. statnews.com/2024/05/02/bir…
2) The fact that basic information — called metadata — isn’t being shared about the samples “hinders our efforts a lot,” said Gytis Dudas, a senior researcher in genomic epidemiology and metagenomics. Dudas is working with a group of U.S. and international researchers to try to make sense of what the genetic sequences say about the H5N1 outbreak in cows.
3) A number of scientists have openly questioned whether the USDA is deliberately withholding these data, or even removing more specific information. 🔥
⚠️CDC WARNING FOR ALL VETERINARIANS, POULTRY, DAIRY & CATTLE FARMWORKERS, SLAUGHTERHOUSE WORKERS—New CDC guidelines now released to use PPE for high risk bird flu exposure occupations (all recommended):
📌N95 respirators
📌Goggles 🥽 or face shield 🛡️
📌Coveralls or fluid-resistant aprons
📌Head covering
📌Rubber boots with sealed seams
📌Gloves
Furthermore:
📍Designated areas for changing PPEs
📍Do not eat, drink, chew gum, chew tobacco, smoke, vape, or use the bathroom while wearing above PPE
📍Shower after work shift
📍(see full list for more details).
Glad the @CDCgov is taking this seriously. You should too. And please don’t drink raw milk 🥛! #AvianFlu #BirdFlu #H5N1 cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/h…
Don’t do raw milk 🥛 please, for the love of god. I know there are many raw milk enthusiasts out there. But just take a pause until this is over? Don’t try to be a macho man about this.
Seriously. Raw milk drinkers… don’t do it. We scientists are pretty damn sure there will be some degree of active virus inside raw milk. Cats have been infected on farms—via likely raw milk. And all 6 cats with bird flu have died of rapid neurological declines, says CDC.
⚠️Bad signal—CDC confirming—“cats having neurologic symptoms, rapid decline, and death” from H5N1 #birdflu. 3 more cases in cats 🐈 on dairy farms… now 6 total. ➡️The prior 3 bird flu positive cats? All dead now. Likely more. This is mammalian adaptation. bnonews.com/index.php/2024…
2) I suspect cats are drinking milk from the dairy cows on the dairy farms. This is why we shouldn’t drink raw milk 🥛 currently. Even pasteurized milk, some scientists are unsure of because of lack of safety data. See thread 🧵 below.
3) Not just cats — certain dog breeds (like beagles are highly susceptible to H5N1 avian flu too. And such dogs can facilitate their adaptation towards humans eventually (since more dogs are around people than dairy cows).
📍Let this sink in—a world leading virologist @RickABright who has studied H5N1 bird flu says he is pausing all his milk consumption until he sees proof from both FDA & USDA that pasteurized milk is safe to drink. Pausing milk because of his concern over lack of transparent data.
Why are scientists pausing milk intake? Because there still isn’t enough data on safety of pasteurized milk. There has been data on other viruses in the past that survive pasteurization. See detailed thread 🧵 below.
Testing conducted by the FDA on pasteurized commercially purchased milk has found genetic evidence of the H5N1 bird flu virus. ➡️But the testing, done by PCR cannot distinguish between live virus or fragments of viruses that could have been killed by the pasteurization process.
The FDA said it has been trying to see if it could grow virus from milk found to contain evidence of H5N1, which is the gold standard test to see if there is viable virus in a product. 📌The FDA *does NOT explicitly say FDA laboratories were unable to find live virus in the milk samples, but nevertheless it does state that its belief that commercial, pasteurized milk is safe to consume has not been altered by these findings.
(Sound familiar? Just like blanket assuming a virus “isn’t airborne”, “cannot transmit without symptoms”, “no human to human transmission” errors during COVID). That said, I will am hopeful that no live virus will be found in confirmation. But let’s be precautious. statnews.com/2024/04/23/h5n…
2) PPE and safety googles or face shield recommended for dairy farmers and anyone handling raw milk 🥛. Also they warn about poor fitting respirators for children (who may work near dairy— like I used to help on a dairy farm as a kid in rural Pa).
3) people working with cattle 🐄 should also “avoid eating drinking smoking chewing gum in contaminated areas or touching eyes.” And people exposed should wear PPE should be monitored for symptoms for 10 days.