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Stockmoney Lizards Profile picture
@StockmoneyL
Dec 30, 2022 • 7 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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2022 was tough! #Stocks & #Crpytos were in a bear market and we entered a #Recession (=negative Growth of GDP in 2 consecutive Quarters)

What does all this mean for #Bitcoin and $SPX #SP500 and how is the outlook for 2023

Take a look at this Mini-Thread 🧵
First, we want to take a look at the most recent recession before: The Great Recession 2008/2009 that followed the financial crisis of 2007.
The $SPX bear market began in Q4 2007 - the first real selloff happened in Q3 '08 - This was also the first quarter GDP declined. The turning point and final bottom was reached in Q1 '09 when GDP turned positive again and the recession was over.

$BTC didn't exist back then GDP Sources: https://stats....
Current Recession: GDP negative growth happened in Q1 and Q2 '22, whereas Q3 had a growth of +2.9%. Estimates for Q4 are +1.4% - +1.6%

While $SPX had a max. drawdown of -27%, $BTC declined -77%. For btc the FTX crash was an aggravating factor. https://www.statista.com/st...
What is the outlook: The economy is now being driven by several factors: high inflation and the associated interest rates. these will continue to tighten in 2023. This in turn will have a negative impact on the overall economy and GDP. Image
Conclusion:
Despite all this, we saw GDP growth continue for the last 2 quarters in a row. The following quarters will be crucial for cryptos and stocks. The downtrend period is not over yet, but 2 consecutive positive GDP quarters are a first step for an end of the bear market. Image
Music by Stockmoney Lizards 🎶

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More from @StockmoneyL

Stockmoney Lizards Profile picture
Jan 27
#Bitcoin

🚨🚨 EMERGENCY UPDATE🚨🚨

Bitcoin and #Altcoins have been dumping in the past 10 hours.

There is much more to it than just Deepseek - We will take a deep dive on what's behind the current dump and what the implications are for the next weeks and months.

A thread.Disclaimer: We have beneficial long- and short positons in various cryptocurrencies. The information provided in this post is for informational purposes only. The content expressed represents our own opinions regarding trades and should not be considered as investment advice. We do not receive compensation for the information shared. Investing in stocks and cryptocurrencies involves a high level of risk, and there is a possibility of losing your entire investment. The mathematical models presented here are based on historical data and may fail to accurately predict future price movements. ...
1. The reasons behind the current drop

A)🌐 DeepSeek shakes markets!
China-based AI firm DeepSeek unveiled an open-source model outperforming OpenAI—built for just $6M. Its low-cost, high-efficiency approach raises concerns about U.S. tech valuations.

Futures in U.S. tech markets dropped on the news, dragging Bitcoin below $99K as crypto (Crypto is strongly linked to tech sentiment), followed the slide. Many "fear" the AI game just changed.

Conclusion: While sentiment has taken a hit, this is nothing that fundamentally changes anything about bitcoin. FUD.Image
Image
B) Liquidity

As always when Bitcoin pumps, liquidity gets trapped in leveraged long positions that are in profit.

Market makers "need" to free this liquidity so prices can move again. This usually happens through sharp drops and/or peaks.

As you can see in the liquidity heatmap, there is a lot of downside liquidty until 95k. A drop to these levels would not be surprising.

Conclusion: This is a normal process.Image
Read 10 tweets
Stockmoney Lizards Profile picture
Jul 26, 2024
#Bitcoin

BTC is about to go nuts big time soon. Many are still in doubt and even more think we might have already seen the top.

Here's a mini-thread about why we believe the contrary is the case and that we will see a massive run in late Q3 / early Q4 this year.Disclaimer: We have beneficial long- and short positons in various cryptocurrencies. The information provided in this post is for informational purposes only. The content expressed represents our own opinions regarding trades and should not be considered as investment advice. We do not receive compensation for the information shared. Investing in stocks and cryptocurrencies involves a high level of risk, and there is a possibility of losing your entire investment. The mathematical models presented here are based on historical data and may fail to accurately predict future price movements. ...
1/3
Besides the mere pattern that we now see, there is a strong logic behind the fact that the charts from the past 3 cycles are so similar.

1. Halving: Halving is a sell-the-news event, retail is expecting the big run, whales that have been accumulating start to distribute
2. Post-halving correction and redistribution: Retail adresses have bought the top and start to sell for a loss, while smart money is rebuying. You can see this when looking at these strong support levels in each of the cycles (in this case 53 - 56k)Image
2/3
What we describe as "short-squeeze zone" is the fact that a lot of liquidations are about to happen in this area. This will reverse many positions, induce a chartreak and turn bearish breakout traders bullish.

Important: Usually these events are preceded by a fakeout and subsequent drop before the actual rally starts.Image
Read 4 tweets
Stockmoney Lizards Profile picture
Jun 11, 2024
There is an overwhelming number of #Altcoins in this cycle!

Not every coin will pump with so many new coins and scams flooding the market. A lot of advice isn't useful ("Buy AI. Buy RWA").

5 Trends of the current cycle - A 🧵Image
1/x
Before we start, some basics:

One reason why many coins haven't really pumped while others reached new ATHs is the fact that the money in the markets is flowing into a much higher number of cryptos than some years ago.

This makes it harder to get the big pumps right. Image
TREND 1: Age

We see that a lot of newer coins (ICO 2022 or newer) are amongst the massive winners.

INJ, SUI, RNDR, FET have outperformed older coins like MATIC, ATOM or LINKImage
Read 11 tweets
Stockmoney Lizards Profile picture
Apr 27, 2024
#Bitcoin

Halving is done and yet, Bitcoin continues printing red candles. Is this it for this cycle?

A lot of folks are insecure, especially in light of the geopolitical and macroeconomic situation

Let's take a look at some charts and indicators.

A 🧵 Disclaimer: We have beneficial long- and short positons in various cryptocurrencies. The information provided in this post is for informational purposes only. The content expressed represents our own opinions regarding trades and should not be considered as investment advice. We do not receive compensation for the information shared. Investing in stocks and cryptocurrencies involves a high level of risk, and there is a possibility of losing your entire investment. The mathematical models presented here are based on historical data and may fail to accurately predict future price movements. ...
1/x
The short answer at the beginning: no, we are not at the end of the bull market.

We believe what we see is a correction which could send us back to the 50ks.

Call it triple top, call it wyckoff distribution. Bitcoin is in correction mode, but...Image
2/x
... we still believe that this is temporary. In a thread on 2 April, we wrote "double top, decreasing RSI, no bullish divergence in sight. ➡️More downside"

This has been true and so far, BTC stays in this corrective channelImage
Read 14 tweets
Stockmoney Lizards Profile picture
Apr 16, 2024
As promised, we are now providing a detailed, unbiased analysis (as unbiased as it can be) on #Bitcoin.

A lot of people are confused right now.

"WWIII - we go to zero?"
"But halving, we go to moon?"
"New ATH usually means rally?"
"But interest rate hikes? Zero?"

A 🧵Image
1/12

IMPORTANT: PLEASE READ FIRST BEFORE PROCEEDING.

We will look at TA, macroeconomics, sentiment, ETFs, and geopolitical tensions.Image
2/12

MACROECONOMICS

Core retail sale numbers were up 1.1% yesterday, indicating inflation is on the rise again.

The FED will likely not lower interest rates - on the contrary, people are now afraid of more hikes.

Meaning: Short-term bearish

Screenshot @WatcherGuruImage
Read 15 tweets
Stockmoney Lizards Profile picture
Dec 22, 2023
#Bitcoin

10 facts you need to know about the #Bitcoin ETF hype.

This is not a thread🧵by Stockmoney Lizards🦎 Image
1⃣ What are ETF´s

An Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is a fund with tradable shares on an exchange. Bitcoin ETFs, specifically, simplify access to Bitcoin in investment portfolios. These funds hold Bitcoin, offering a straightforward way for investors to participate the crypto hype without need of buying real #Bitcoin over a crypto exchange.
2⃣ ETF and the classic financial market

Until now, the crypto market has been decoupled from the traditional financial market. In the past, Bitcoin could only be bought via crypto exchanges.

As we are well aware, Bitcoin's history is marked by scandals and crypto exchange bankruptcies, with the most recent being the #FTX crash. This has repeatedly led to resentment in the past.

Large asset managers and financial institutions in particular have not yet invested in #Bitcoin, especially because of the uncertainty. In its early days, Bitcoin attracted idealists, developers, and visionaries, but not the big money. This will change now.
Read 13 tweets

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