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Stockmoney Lizards Profile picture
@StockmoneyL
Dec 30, 2022 • 7 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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2022 was tough! #Stocks & #Crpytos were in a bear market and we entered a #Recession (=negative Growth of GDP in 2 consecutive Quarters)

What does all this mean for #Bitcoin and $SPX #SP500 and how is the outlook for 2023

Take a look at this Mini-Thread 🧵
First, we want to take a look at the most recent recession before: The Great Recession 2008/2009 that followed the financial crisis of 2007.
The $SPX bear market began in Q4 2007 - the first real selloff happened in Q3 '08 - This was also the first quarter GDP declined. The turning point and final bottom was reached in Q1 '09 when GDP turned positive again and the recession was over.

$BTC didn't exist back then GDP Sources: https://stats....
Current Recession: GDP negative growth happened in Q1 and Q2 '22, whereas Q3 had a growth of +2.9%. Estimates for Q4 are +1.4% - +1.6%

While $SPX had a max. drawdown of -27%, $BTC declined -77%. For btc the FTX crash was an aggravating factor. https://www.statista.com/st...
What is the outlook: The economy is now being driven by several factors: high inflation and the associated interest rates. these will continue to tighten in 2023. This in turn will have a negative impact on the overall economy and GDP. Image
Conclusion:
Despite all this, we saw GDP growth continue for the last 2 quarters in a row. The following quarters will be crucial for cryptos and stocks. The downtrend period is not over yet, but 2 consecutive positive GDP quarters are a first step for an end of the bear market. Image
Music by Stockmoney Lizards 🎶

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More from @StockmoneyL

Stockmoney Lizards Profile picture
May 31
🧵 THREAD: Crypto-X is flipping bearish again, predicting a 2021 double top.

I see influencers saying "I sold all my #Bitcoin today" everywhere.

The narrative is getting loud. But what's really behind it?

I took a deep dive watching some important indicators👇 Disclaimer: We have beneficial long- and short positons in various cryptocurrencies. The information provided in this post is for informational purposes only. The content expressed represents our own opinions regarding trades and should not be considered as investment advice. We do not receive compensation for the information shared. Investing in stocks and cryptocurrencies involves a high level of risk, and there is a possibility of losing your entire investment. The mathematical models presented here are based on historical data and may fail to accurately predict future price movements. ...
2/ "That RSI-divergence on the weekly looks like the double top in 2021"

Divergences look scary on charts. But I actually went back and checked every single weekly RSI divergence in Bitcoin's history.

Want to know what I found? This thing has been dead wrong most of the time.
2015: "Divergence means top!" - BTC went up 10x 2017: "This divergence is different!" - BTC kept pumping for months
2019: "Finally confirmed!" - Another 4x move incoming
The only time it actually worked was 2021. That's 1 out of 5.
So we're supposed to sell everything based on an indicator that's failed 80% of the time?

We need more data.Image
3/ But here's what really matters: Active addresses

This is the metric nobody talks about but should be watching closely.

Active addresses show you who's actually using Bitcoin - not just trading it, but moving it, holding it, believing in it.

Look at what happened during REAL bear markets:
2018: Active addresses absolutely collapsed. People gave up.
2021: Same thing. Mass exodus from Bitcoin.

Right now, we see an increase in active address rather than a decline.Image
Read 11 tweets
Stockmoney Lizards Profile picture
May 9
#Altcoins are surging. I can see fomo buys all over the place.

And while we are still near bottom levels, this is not the day to buy.

Here are my 7 golden rules to survive the brutal pump-and-dump altcoin cycles.

Let's go!

Note: This is a condensed version of the latest newsletter issue. For more info, check it out in our free discord groupDisclaimer: We have beneficial long- and short positons in various cryptocurrencies. The information provided in this post is for informational purposes only. The content expressed represents our own opinions regarding trades and should not be considered as investment advice. We do not receive compensation for the information shared. Investing in stocks and cryptocurrencies involves a high level of risk, and there is a possibility of losing your entire investment. The mathematical models presented here are based on historical data and may fail to accurately predict future price movements. ...
Rule 1

Know when to buy (and when not to). Most traders have it backwards—they chase green candles.

I'm hunting for 80-95% drawdowns, weekly RSI <30, and prices well below 200 day MA.

Higher timeframes tell the real story. Bottom fishing isn't guessing, it's patience.FET – USDT, weekly timeframe. Perfect time to scale in was 5 weeks ago when RSI was <35, big distance to 200 day SMA. Look back to 2023 – this is where you want to catch a good altcoin, not during the pump.
Rule 2

Spot reversal signals. Look for seller exhaustion: bullish divergences on RSI/MACD, volume spikes after consecutive down legs, and higher lows forming.

Confirm on multiple timeframes. When smart money quietly accumulates, oscillators tell the truth when price is still lying.ETH – USDT, daily timeframe. A bullish divergence formed before the final drop. Note that you will not nail the bottom. Here, a first entry at 1,800 would have been good (more to that later). The bottom is marked by a massive volume spike.
Read 11 tweets
Stockmoney Lizards Profile picture
Jan 27
#Bitcoin

🚨🚨 EMERGENCY UPDATE🚨🚨

Bitcoin and #Altcoins have been dumping in the past 10 hours.

There is much more to it than just Deepseek - We will take a deep dive on what's behind the current dump and what the implications are for the next weeks and months.

A thread.Disclaimer: We have beneficial long- and short positons in various cryptocurrencies. The information provided in this post is for informational purposes only. The content expressed represents our own opinions regarding trades and should not be considered as investment advice. We do not receive compensation for the information shared. Investing in stocks and cryptocurrencies involves a high level of risk, and there is a possibility of losing your entire investment. The mathematical models presented here are based on historical data and may fail to accurately predict future price movements. ...
1. The reasons behind the current drop

A)🌐 DeepSeek shakes markets!
China-based AI firm DeepSeek unveiled an open-source model outperforming OpenAI—built for just $6M. Its low-cost, high-efficiency approach raises concerns about U.S. tech valuations.

Futures in U.S. tech markets dropped on the news, dragging Bitcoin below $99K as crypto (Crypto is strongly linked to tech sentiment), followed the slide. Many "fear" the AI game just changed.

Conclusion: While sentiment has taken a hit, this is nothing that fundamentally changes anything about bitcoin. FUD.Image
Image
B) Liquidity

As always when Bitcoin pumps, liquidity gets trapped in leveraged long positions that are in profit.

Market makers "need" to free this liquidity so prices can move again. This usually happens through sharp drops and/or peaks.

As you can see in the liquidity heatmap, there is a lot of downside liquidty until 95k. A drop to these levels would not be surprising.

Conclusion: This is a normal process.Image
Read 10 tweets
Stockmoney Lizards Profile picture
Jul 26, 2024
#Bitcoin

BTC is about to go nuts big time soon. Many are still in doubt and even more think we might have already seen the top.

Here's a mini-thread about why we believe the contrary is the case and that we will see a massive run in late Q3 / early Q4 this year.Disclaimer: We have beneficial long- and short positons in various cryptocurrencies. The information provided in this post is for informational purposes only. The content expressed represents our own opinions regarding trades and should not be considered as investment advice. We do not receive compensation for the information shared. Investing in stocks and cryptocurrencies involves a high level of risk, and there is a possibility of losing your entire investment. The mathematical models presented here are based on historical data and may fail to accurately predict future price movements. ...
1/3
Besides the mere pattern that we now see, there is a strong logic behind the fact that the charts from the past 3 cycles are so similar.

1. Halving: Halving is a sell-the-news event, retail is expecting the big run, whales that have been accumulating start to distribute
2. Post-halving correction and redistribution: Retail adresses have bought the top and start to sell for a loss, while smart money is rebuying. You can see this when looking at these strong support levels in each of the cycles (in this case 53 - 56k)Image
2/3
What we describe as "short-squeeze zone" is the fact that a lot of liquidations are about to happen in this area. This will reverse many positions, induce a chartreak and turn bearish breakout traders bullish.

Important: Usually these events are preceded by a fakeout and subsequent drop before the actual rally starts.Image
Read 4 tweets
Stockmoney Lizards Profile picture
Jun 11, 2024
There is an overwhelming number of #Altcoins in this cycle!

Not every coin will pump with so many new coins and scams flooding the market. A lot of advice isn't useful ("Buy AI. Buy RWA").

5 Trends of the current cycle - A 🧵Image
1/x
Before we start, some basics:

One reason why many coins haven't really pumped while others reached new ATHs is the fact that the money in the markets is flowing into a much higher number of cryptos than some years ago.

This makes it harder to get the big pumps right. Image
TREND 1: Age

We see that a lot of newer coins (ICO 2022 or newer) are amongst the massive winners.

INJ, SUI, RNDR, FET have outperformed older coins like MATIC, ATOM or LINKImage
Read 11 tweets
Stockmoney Lizards Profile picture
Apr 27, 2024
#Bitcoin

Halving is done and yet, Bitcoin continues printing red candles. Is this it for this cycle?

A lot of folks are insecure, especially in light of the geopolitical and macroeconomic situation

Let's take a look at some charts and indicators.

A 🧵 Disclaimer: We have beneficial long- and short positons in various cryptocurrencies. The information provided in this post is for informational purposes only. The content expressed represents our own opinions regarding trades and should not be considered as investment advice. We do not receive compensation for the information shared. Investing in stocks and cryptocurrencies involves a high level of risk, and there is a possibility of losing your entire investment. The mathematical models presented here are based on historical data and may fail to accurately predict future price movements. ...
1/x
The short answer at the beginning: no, we are not at the end of the bull market.

We believe what we see is a correction which could send us back to the 50ks.

Call it triple top, call it wyckoff distribution. Bitcoin is in correction mode, but...Image
2/x
... we still believe that this is temporary. In a thread on 2 April, we wrote "double top, decreasing RSI, no bullish divergence in sight. ➡️More downside"

This has been true and so far, BTC stays in this corrective channelImage
Read 14 tweets

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