Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Recession

Most recents (11)

Treasury yield curve collapsing at long maturities
10yr-3mo spread today 9bps
Use utterly conventional probit regression, 1967-2019m05, 10yr-3mo spread implies 40% probability #recession in May 2020. Ich denke wir sind verloren - Danke, Drumpf! (no adjustment for term premium)
Detail on spreads, time series, below. If Cam Harvey is right, we are already *toast*
Read 5 tweets
Some argue that the #US economy could decouple from the steepening downturn in the global #economy . This is a serious misconception.

The fact is that, for the first time since the early 1900s, the US has not been the most influential player in the global business cycle. 1/
When the global financial crash reverberated through the global economy in late 2008, the Chinese leaders enacted stimulus that would break all records.

The idea, most likely, was to carry the Chinese economy through the slump of the global economy, but the slump never ended. 2/
The bank bailouts of 2008 combined with zero-interest and quantitative easing policies by the central banks forced the business cycle into expansion mode prematurely. Unprofitable banks and firms were kept operating, and the global economy “zombified”. 3/…
Read 11 tweets
I do constantly wonder about two things.

First, how is it that the massive debt driven bubble in #China is so elusive to many? If look at any, any, standard measure of credit excess, it's in the red. 1/
This extremely important for the global #economy as China has been driven it for the past 10 years.

China has accounted for at least 30% of global growth and some 55% of global money (credit) creation since 2009. 2/
Secondly, why so few seem to worry about zero interest rates and swollen balance sheet of central banks?

There's absolutely no way that 10 years of these has not created the biggest and most dangerous asset bubble in history. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Great talk by @martinwolf_ at the 46th Economics Conference @oenb @suerf_org on escaping the #trap: secular #stagnation, monetary #policy and financial fragility
Before the outbreak of the global financial crisis @martinwolf_ saw himself as an orthodox economist - now suggests to read Minsky, Godley et al.
'Everything depends on everything else' - eternal truth by @martinwolf_
Read 9 tweets
For almost two years now, I've been randomly but constantly been drawn into discussions about the benefits of the euro.

The simple fact is that at the macro level, there are basically none. In the firm-level, especially in the SME -level, there are few. But, 1/
The question is, which should weigh more? The larger single-currency financial markets or a floating exchange rate that corresponds to the macroeconomic and political conditions of each country.

I think that answer, undeniably, is that the latter is more important. 2/
This is because global financial markets are very open and developed nowadays. Funding and hedging is widely available.

However, cutting wages and prices in a #recession has proven very difficult as it has been since the end of the 'liberal era' in early 1900's. 3/
Read 6 tweets
What we should know about Iran
Topic: #sanctions results
The #US department of state said that the Iranian regime is feeling the pain from their maximum pressure campaign.
#سپاه_عامل_سیل #خامنه‌ای_عامل_ویرانی #IranRegimeChange
What we should know about Iran
Topic: #Recession
#Iran's Exports, Imports Decline, With #US Trade Lowest Since 2000.
Iran's trade generally declined in the first two months of 2019.
#سپاه_عامل_سیل #خامنه‌ای_عامل_ویرانی #IranRegimeChan
What we should know about Iran
Topic: #Flood disaster
Jafar Montazeri #Iran Attorney General says posting flood news on social media “disrupts security”!!.
#سپاه_عامل_سیل #خامنه‌ای_عامل_ویرانی #IranRegimeChange
Read 4 tweets
[#LettreHebdo] La politique monétaire US étant maintenant pleinement clarifiée - la FED ne relèvera pas ses taux d’intérêt et adopte un biais expansionniste
Les indications les plus récentes montrent que la tendance des derniers mois s’est poursuivie au mois de mars, avec un ralentissement global d’origine essentiellement industrielle. #LettreHebdo
La situation générale présente des similitudes avec celle de 2015, lorsqu'un fort ralentissement #chinois entraînait un ralentissement mondial fortement concentré sur quelques secteurs économiques. #LettreHebdo
Read 12 tweets
Good morning to all 😀Interesting weeks/months ahead of us as my deflationary scenario plays out. Will have massive consequences for currencies, gold, equities etc. I keep my subscribers updated closely on Daily/Weekly updates. But for now - stay tuned for some #HZupdates 👍
"#Deflation" or "#Disinflation" have been my call for a long time. We are not out of Kondratiev's winter yet. We haven't seen the all events which unfold during K's winter. Still to come Pension Funds Crisis, Currency Crisis, Run from Paper Money ...and War #HZupdates
And "#Deflation" outlook is clear in the charts imo. I look primarily to #AUDUSD and #Copper for guidance. Observe this chart of #Copper. Major ABC pattern. Length of C can be set by the irregular pattern indicating low in Copper below 2008-levels = deflation in 2019 #HZupdates
Read 19 tweets
#Deutsche and other banks given “waivers” from @realDonaldTrump
Yes, #Obama did temporary waivers, making them pay for the 2008 crisis, w/#SallyYates working towards them paying penalties to the victims, working w/the U.K.‘s charges etc...NO, IT IS NOT THE SAME THING!
11/24/2015 Deutsche Bank Suisse will pay a penalty of more than $31 million.…

The Trump administration has waived part of the punishment for five megabanks whose affiliates were convicted and fined for manipulating global interest rates... announcement
published in the Federal Register during the #Christmas holiday week.

Trump administration waivers was granted to #Deutsche Bank — which is owed at least $130 million by Donald Trump and his business empire, and has also been fined for its role in a #Russian #moneylaundering
Read 14 tweets
紐約聯邦儲備委員會的衰退概率指標(Recession-probablity Indicator)——使用10年/ 3個月的國債收益率曲線來預測未來12個月收縮的可能性,最近達到2008年以來的最高點——24%。據彭博數據顯示,自20世紀60年代以來,該指標已經上升了11次,其中8次伴隨著衰退。 #Recession
Read 18 tweets
Let's face it, we are on an economic free fall. Recessions often lasts a few years to decades and the effects stalls mobility for generations. We obv don’t know how long this will last but it’ll be painful and prolly the worst financial crisis any of us will ever live through.
Despite all the public posturing by Rotich the question still begs what is the true status of this economy? This economy is in a huge fiscal mess than we as a nation are willing to admit. On March 6th Rotich admitted govt is broke, then denied, then admitted to Senate FC on 7th.
This free fall is squarely blamed on 🍻 his crazy administration and his sewer rat family at the helm. Economic recession tends to be a general economic decline defined by stock market price declines, massive unemployment/retrenchment and a general decline in the housing market.
Read 17 tweets

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