Jim Small Profile picture
Jan 9 53 tweets 8 min read
Happening momentarily: @GovernorHobbs gives her first State of the State address.

I'll 🧵it here 👇
But while we're waiting, here's a look at the new political reality that exists for GOP lawmakers, who are in for a sea change at the Capitol azmirror.com/2023/01/09/ari…
Chants of "Katie! Katie! Katie!" as the governor takes the podium
Hobbs repeats what she said last week @ inaugural address: Door open to those who are "ready to make real progress," but those "chasing conspiracy theories" will get nowhere
"Let’s work together to make a significant impact in the lives of the families and communities of this state today and for years to come"
"The people of Arizona have sent us here to find solutions to these issues, and that’s exactly what my administration will be focused on doing for the next four years"
Hobbs on the "power of prosperity"

"One thing that’s not complicated is that the easiest way to change someone’s life is to offer them the opportunity for a new or better job."
"We start this new chapter in a unique position. The state of our state offers promise – and we must act on it."
Rural AZ being left behind w/o high-speed internet.

People can't afford rents or to buy a home.

State has failed to live up to K-12 needs -- teacher retention problems and crumbling infrastructure
Hobbs invokes former Gov. Rose Mofford, who became governor after Ev Mecham was impeached.

Mofford spoke about “difficult choices” as she challenged the legislature to do the right thing. Mofford "fought for the right thing and chose not to back down from those challenges."
At least one GOP legislator has left the chamber instead of listening to the governor
"My hope is that when you leave here today, you understand that I and my administration are committed to action and to improving the lives of every Arizonan."
"And if you are committed to those same ideals, then I am ready to work side-by-side with you – no matter your party registration."
Hobbs: There's a "potential catastrophe" if the "archaic funding cap" on school spending isn't fixed soon.

She takes a swipe at Ducey for failing to address, after he promised to do so.
"We must make this right. If we do not, this ticking time bomb will explode and force a 1.3 billion dollar cut that would be one of the largest in our state’s history"

cuts would be last 2 months of school year, cause schools to close
Hobbs singles out @RepDavidCook for his bill to waive AEL cap this year, urges his measure to advance
Now Hobbs turns to last year's ESA expansion to all students "that lacks accountability and will likely bankrupt the state."

"Funding this expansion is poised to cost Arizona taxpayers an estimated $1.5 billion over the next 10 years if left unaddressed."
Hobbs: teachers are "caught in the middle of crises of our own making"

That's why 1 in 4 AZ teachers leave schools, highest rate in the nation
Hobbs is launching an Educator Retention Task Force "to improve class sizes, resources, working conditions, and other factors" that will help retain teachers
"The reality is we don’t have an educator shortage, what we have is a retention crisis. There are too many amazing professionals who have walked away from the career they love."

Cites low pay, bad policies, unfunded mandates from #azleg
Hobbs pledges "historic investment in schools" for capital needs
Hobbs also seems to take aim at results-based bonus school funding, and says she will redirect some $68 million to base support level, which goes to all schools
Hobbs wants transparency for "any school that accepts taxpayer dollars" and for them to abide by same standards all district schools do.

That would seem to take direct aim at private schools who accept ESA funding.
Hobbs calls for more social workers and counselors in schools

"Currently each counselor in an Arizona school provides services for more than 700 kids on average. That’s the highest ratio in the nation and nearly three times the recommended standard"
Now on to colleges

Hobbs calls for investing in community colleges, particularly in rural AZ, and dual-enrollment programs
Expanding the Arizona Promise Scholarship Program from 4,000 students to 14,000 students.

Also, budget will allocate $40 million for the Promise for DREAMers Scholarship Program, in line with voters approving Prop 308 in November
Now on to the housing crisis: "too many Arizona families are getting further away from achieving the American dream due to the high cost of housing"
"We can do better. Let’s work together to ensure that here in Arizona, any person who wants to achieve the American Dream or have a safe roof over their head can do so."
Hobbs touts a $150 million investment in the AZ Housing Trust Fund this year, plus money for future years
Rising costs are hurting AZ families

Hobbs says she'll push for a $50 million child tax credit for families earning less than $40,000 a year
Also, exempt diapers & feminine hygiene products from sales tax

(there's already a @TJShopeforAZ bill to do just that)
Hobbs on the border and "our broken immigration system" that harms AZ communities
"Arizona voters told us in November they don’t want or need political stunts designed solely to garner sensationalist TV coverage and generate social media posts."
Leaders "need real solutions" after "decades of failed leadership by both parties" on immgiration
Hobbs has invited Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas to visit the border with her and speak with community leaders and others
Next up, reproductive freedom

"I refuse to stand by and do nothing as my daughter – or anyone’s daughter – now has fewer rights today than I did growing up."

Notes that 90% of Arizonans believe abortion should be legal
"I will not support, and I will use every power of the governor’s office to stop, any legislation or action that attacks, strips, or delays the liberty or inherent right of any individual to decide what’s best for themselves or their families."
Looks like Kern and Wadsack with their backs turned to Hobbs in an attempt to show her up
Also hear that Rep. Jake Hoffman and his wife left the chamber when Hobbs began talking about reproductive freedom, via @JerodMacEvoy
Water is "the challenge of our time."

"We are in a critical moment where we must be unified, where we must form new and stronger partnerships, and where we must find bipartisan solutions at a local, statewide, and national level."
Hobbs praises Sens. Sinema & Kelly for current work, past work of Jon Kyl and Bruce Babbitt for crossing aisles to find "pragmatic solutions"

"We should follow in their footsteps as we collectively face a drought unlike anything in modern times."
AZ is facing 21% cut this year in CO River water usage

"Barring a miracle from nature, it will likely get worse before it gets better. This should be a wake-up call for all of us, because it will take all of us to solve it."
ADWR made a report that West Valley is far short of 100-year assured water supply.

Hobbs says Ducey buried the report.

"I do not understand, and do not in any way agree with, my predecessor choosing to keep this report from the public and from members of this legislature."
There is no "silver bullet" for our water crisis, and AZ must "evaluate and invest in both short- and long-term efforts that will help us achieve our goals"
Hobbs is re-establishing the Governor’s Energy Office and relaunching it as the Governor’s Office of Resiliency to focus on water, energy, and land use solutions
Executive order coming to create the Governor’s Water Policy Council "to modernize and expand the Arizona Groundwater Management Act"
Few restrictions on water pumping in much of AZ

Hobbs singles out the Saudi Arabian company "pumping local groundwater nearly unchecked in La Paz County today" to ship crops to the Middle East
"We all know that’s not right. Our groundwater should be used to support Arizonans, not foreign business interests. Let’s close this water poaching loophole."
Hobb's budget will include $$$ to set up Active Management Areas, which regulate water usage
"We are all in this together. Bring forward innovative solutions to this challenge of our time. We cannot let the same old partisan fights drag us down."
"These challenges will not be easy... But the people of Arizona did not send us to this capitol to solve easy problems or to leave them to the next generation. They sent us here to do the right thing – no matter how difficult that may prove to be. We will not let them down."
"Let us never forget that we all hold a deep love for this state. We are here because we want to ensure the generations that follow us have a chance to discover that love, too."

In closing: "Now let’s get to work."
Another GOP legislator who left the chamber while Hobbs was speaking

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More from @JimSmall

Nov 12, 2022
The gains the Dems made here is *VERY* important for understanding how the next several days are likely to go as they process the remaining 275,000 or so ballots in Maricopa County

BLUF: Dems are well-positioned to win these statewide races
You can take the #AZSEN and #AZSOS races off the table -- AP has called the Senate race for Kelly, NBC has called the SOS race for Fontes. Both lead by 5%+ and would need to win nearly 2 in every 3 remaining ballots to come back. That won't happen.
In the #AZGov, #AZAG and #AZSPI races, the Republicans still have the ability to come from behind. But today's drop favoring Dems means they have a steeper hill to climb.
Read 7 tweets
Nov 12, 2022
MariCo has posted 74k ballots. The surge of GOP voters predicted by Republican campaigns failed to materialize

#AZSen
Kelly's lead today grew from 114,894 votes to 123,916 (@AP called the race for @CaptMarkKelly

#AZGov
Hobbs' lead went from 26,879 last night to 31,097
#AZSoS
Fontes' lead went from 109,244 to 118,125

#AZAG
Mayes' lead went from 16,414 to 19,151

#AZSPI
Hoffman grew her lead from 3,852 to 6,665
This batch of ballots were the 17,000 that couldn't be scanned on Election Day at polling sites (likely VERY heavily favoring GOPers) and early ballots dropped off at polling places.

Dems made significant gains all around
Read 4 tweets
Nov 11, 2022
MariCo has posted 78k ballots that favored Dem candidates

#AZSen
Kelly's lead went from about 104,570 votes to 114,894

#AZGov
Hobbs' lead went from 19,385 to 26,879
#AZSoS
Fontes' lead went from 98,329 to 109,244

#AZAG
Mayes' lead went from 9,800 to 16,414

#AZSPI
*Lead change*
Hoffman went from trailing by 2,568 to leading by 3,852
***NOTE***

This batch of ballots included only early ballots that were mailed back, not those dropped off at polling places on Tuesday.

Republicans believe that those ballots will be heavily GOP, similar to Election Day voters, which were heavy GOP
Read 4 tweets
Sep 26, 2022
On Friday, @arizona_sos said it turned in 141,714 signatures.

@SecretaryHobbs' Office said there were 8,175 petition sheets submitted.

That would be 17.3 signatures on average per sheet.

Since there's only 15 lines per sheet, that's impossible.
That few petition sheets also makes it almost impossible that they gathered the 118,823 valid signatures needed.

That would require more than 14.5 signatures per sheet on average.

I've looked at a few hundred sheets, and many (unsurprisingly) are incomplete.
When your path to victory requires every line of every sheet to have a valid signature, you really don't have a path to victory.

The SOS has 20 days to review petitions for completeness, so we'll get a final answer in due time.

But it looks like @arizona_sos fell WAY short.
Read 10 tweets
Jul 9, 2020
THREAD

It's nearly time for the weekly #COVID19 update from Gov. Ducey et al.

I'll do my best to cover the event in this thread, but here's the link if you want to watch along youtube.com/watch?v=z69sbd…
I'm not entirely certain what will be announced today, but there are rumors that the ratcheting back on the March-May shutdown rules will continue, this time with restaurant dining rooms being shut down again.
In advance of the presser, @KelliButlerAZ and @CharleneforAZ have asked Ducey to implement a series of steps to more robustly curb spread of #COVID19
Read 91 tweets
Jun 25, 2020
Gov. Ducey will be holding a press conference with ADHS chief Cara Christ in about 5 minutes. Watch along here, I'll be doing my best to live-tweet it
Getting started
Ducey: "COVID 19 is widespread in Arizona... It's growing, and it's growing fast, across all age groups and demographics. Anyone can get this virus and anyone can spread this virus."
Read 96 tweets

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