32.8 mln lbs per year multiplied by $7/lb is ~$230mln per year x 20+ years means and extra $4.6 BILLION of cash flow.
The increase in #molybdenum price is greater than $moly’s forecasted cash cost!
Market cap increase over this same time period is a paltry ~$65 million
Vs
NPV increase probably around $1 bln depending on assumptions.
Begs the question: If a mining company sees their NPV 6 increase by +40% due to a 30% spot commodity price rise which is also more than its cash costs. And that npv6 increase is also more than ~20x it’s market cap… how much should the stock go up? Lol
Some times it just nuts to simply consider the potential value change in a company like $moly talk about torque
Show me other companies with economic mining projects that already had a nice IRR’s that have seen a commodity price rise that torqued their npv6 like so
If anyone knows of other companies who’s underlying commodity has increased such that their npv6 has increased by 20x their market cap in the last month I’d like to know and invest :)
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When I get asked for #investing#advice from young people in their 20’s and what they should read etc. Here’s how I typically respond in a thread:
I explain that the first two steps are: 1. figure out what kind of investment style you are best suited for and 2. then try to become as much of an expert at it as you can and find an edge that yields repeatable performance
One way to attack step one is to moderately acquaint yourself with famous successful investors and then dig down deeper into the ones that you relate most to and find to be similar to you in personality/habits
#molybdenum sensitivity is actually ‘off the charts’ since the current price is ~$31/lb and dramatically above the high case
The ‘net present value’ using a 6% discount rate is more than ~$1 bln higher than the levered best case at the end of the chart above. The higher the price of Molybdenum the easier it will be to get a fat supply/sales agreement done with a major euro steel co.
They said in early Dec press release they have completed the work and will submit the SIA and EIA in the next few weeks so it’s either submitted or about to be. So we will get our answers over the course of this year. Hopefully while the molybdenum price continues to rise.
Considering the project was permitted in the past and the environment plan has been improved to be better for the environment by current management I don’t see the EIA as a concern. It’s gonna come down to public support for or against the project. Jobs and taxes vs social impact
"I am not going to make a position when prices are at an all-time high," the trader said.
Ie. everyone is running down inventory because prices are at 15 year highs and nearing all time high.. so there’s no moly to be found now
Article speaks to a trader actually having to fly some molybdenum in…
What’s gonna happen is we will blow out to new highs. Squeeze and then settle back above the all time highs and contracting will begin. But it seems like with lower mining grades and production problems…
Fact is.. molybdenum that no one gives a fuck about is going into serious shortage.. when the price of moly runs… it runs. Will be testing all time inflation adjusted highs and likely blowing through. Mid $40’s $moly Greenland resources is the play mining.com/surging-molybd…
It won’t be substituted… it will be hoarded and the majors will try to buy out Greenland resources. $moly cause it can produce 30+ mln lbs a year with a sub $7/lb cost and be a cashflow giant for them for decades.
Should be noted that utilities are going to keep stepping in to buy #uranium at spot when ever Sput is able to raise cash. They know they can’t let it consume any more. They prefer to try to sucker some producers into selling low price capped contracts. Same as last cycle
Fact is that the #uranium physical market is super thin now. There are entities that must buy all the spot volume to fill contracts and needs of utilities. Soon sput will be rising and the atm won’t even get turned on cause there will be no uranium avail
Last cycle the #uranium price was spiking along with Sput and we couldn’t raise funds for it because they couldn’t get any uranium at all. Sput then had to buy uf6. It’s gonna happen again and its rapidly approaching. Hard to say when the ‘market’ will clue in to this fact