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Dan Nystedt

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Jan 13 • 9 tweets • 4 min read

https://twitter.com/dnystedt/status/1613447817321943040

TSMC 4th quarter (Q4) earnings News roundup

Most of the information can be found in this thread from yesterday:

https://twitter.com/dnystedt/status/1613447817321943040

But media added some nice info and I missed a few key items.
1/8

2/8 TSMC Q4
$TSM US-listed shares closed +6.4% at $87
-4Q gross margin (GM) 62.2% beat analysts’ estimates 60.1%
4Q22 operating margin (OM) 52%, beat estimated 50%
Net profit NT$295.9 bln beat estimated NT$287.8 bln
EPS NT$11.41
Quarterly record highs: GM, OM, net profit, EPS

3/8 TSMC Full Year 2022
TSMC’s full year 2022 net profit rose 70.4% to NT$1.02 trillion;
Means TSMC made a net profit NT$2.76 billion every day last year, or more than NT$100 million each hour, media report.
$TSM #semiconductors

4/8 TSMC 1st Qtr Outlook
Q1 revenue forecast US$16.7-$17.5 bln, vs estimated US$17.9 bln

Q1 would be TSMC’s first quarterly revenue decline in 4-years.

Q1 GM seen 53.5% - 55.5%, vs est. 55.1%
Q1 OM seen 41.5% - 43.5%, vs est. 43.6%.

2023 Capex US$32-$36 bln, vs est. $34.86 bln

5/8 TSMC Outlook
TSMC said demand will hit a trough in the 1st half of 2023, which media say is a revision to previous statements that the bottom would be in the 1st quarter.
$TSM #semiconductors

6/8 TSMC Outlook

TSMC reaffirmed long term financial targets

TSMC’s long term revenue growth forecast (CAGR) remains 15%-20%

TSMC’s long term gross margin target of 53% or higher remains achievable
$TSM #semiconductors

7/8 TSMC 2-nanometer
TSMC is building capacity for 2nm capacity in Hsinchu, and Taichung, Taiwan and is on track for 2nm mass production in 2025.

TSMC said its 2nm process technology development is ahead of schedule.
-Citing TSMC CEO CC Wei
$TSM #semiconductors

8/8 TSMC Overseas Plans

Europe: TSMC is considering a plan to build a fab for automotive chips, depending on government subsidies there.

Japan: TSMC is considering a 2nd fab for Japan

China: TSMC has expanded 28nm capacity
-Citing TSMC CEO CC Wei
$TSM #semiconductors

Links:
ctee.com.tw/news/stocks/79…

money.udn.com/money/story/56…

money.udn.com/money/story/56…

money.udn.com/money/story/11…

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More from @dnystedt

Dan Nystedt

@dnystedt

Jan 12

TSMC 4th Quarter Earnings Jan. 12

Net Revenue +26.7% year-on-year to US$19.93 billion, at low-end of $19.9-$20.7 billion guidance

Net Revenue (NT$) +42.8% to NT$625.53 billion
Net Profit +78% to NT$295.9 billion
GM 62.2% vs guide 59.5-61.5
OM 52% vs guide 49-51
$TSM Thread 1/x

2/x TSMC 4th Quarter (Q4) $TSM

Q4 wafer shipments fell 6.8% to 3.702 million wafers from 3.974 million in the 3rd quarter.

3/x TSMC Q4 $TSM

Q4 revenue rose as 5nm process technology accounted for more sales, 32% of the total, up from 28% in the 3rd quarter.

Read 26 tweets

Dan Nystedt

@dnystedt

Dec 15, 2022

ASML CEO Peter Wennink pushed back against new U.S. export rules on China, saying his company has already sacrificed enough and the new rules are unnecessary, media report. ASML has been restricted from selling its most advanced machines (EUV) to China since 2019 - 1/3 $ASML

2/3 $ASML
and U.S. rivals benefit by selling alternative technology, he reportedly said, adding "it is common knowledge that chip technology for purely military applications is usually 10, 15 years old. (Yet) the technology used to make such chips can still be sold to China."

Note: Interesting interview. ASML's position is reasonable. It's true that many military chips are old. But new US restrictions are aimed at supercomputer and AI chips and the ability to make such chips, not older chips. Tough situation.
Link: reuters.com/technology/ceo…

Read 4 tweets

Dan Nystedt

@dnystedt

Dec 4, 2022

TSMC Arizona has turned into a Chinese Communist Party (CCP, China) talking point, with scary stories daily.

Example:
“The U.S. is turning TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co) into ASMC (American SMC)," and no Taiwan politician dares say no to the U.S.

Thread 1/9 $TSM

2/9
It looks like a CCP effort to hurt U.S.-Taiwan relations.

What’s most disappointing is the lack of creativity – the perpetrators clearly know little about the semiconductor industry.
#semiconductor $TSM

3/9 Taiwan’s semiconductor industry began in the 1960s, about when the CCP made it a priority.

But where the CCP failed, Taiwan flourished.

Taipei built a vibrant ecosystem, and a number of global powerhouses. Its lead isn’t going away anytime soon.

Let’s count ’em down.

Read 15 tweets

Dan Nystedt

@dnystedt

Oct 15, 2022

TSMC 3rd Quarter Earnings Call Extras

-N7 weakness impact on Kaohsiung project
-N3, N3E and N2 details
-TSMC CEO on scaling
-Inventories at 25-year high?
-Overseas fab projects
-Final financials

1/11 Thread $TSM #semiconductors

2/11 N7 and Kaohsiung fab
N7, N6 capacity utilization in Q4 and 1st half 2023 will be down due to weakness in smartphones, PCs and product delays by customers.

Kaohsiung fab plan impacted:
2 fabs planned initially for Kaohsiung, 28nm and N7, “but N7 has been adjusted.”-CEO
$TSM

3/11 TSMC CEO on N3
-will be in mass production later in Q4 with good yield

-capacity will be fully utilized in 2023

-demand exceeds supply, partly due to tool delivery issues

-working with tool supplier to resolve issues to meet “strong demand in 2023, 2024 and beyond.”

Read 11 tweets

Dan Nystedt

@dnystedt

Oct 13, 2022

TSMC 3rd Quarter Results
Revenue US$20.23 billion vs guidance $19.8–20.6 billion
Revenue NT$613.14 billion (guidance NT$588.06-NT$611.82 billion)
Q3 gross margin 60.4% vs guidance 57.5%-59.5%
Q3 Operating Margin 50.6% vs guidance 47%-49%
$TSM 1/x

2/x TSMC Q3
TSMC Net Profit NT$280.87 billion vs consensus estimate NT$264.8 billion

Earnings Per Share NT$10.83 vs consensus NT$10.26
EPS in USD US$1.79

$TSM

3/x TSMC Q3
TSMC shipped 3.974 million wafers in the 3rd quarter (12-inch equivalent), up from 3.799 million in the 2nd quarter.
$TSM

Read 20 tweets

Dan Nystedt

@dnystedt

Sep 25, 2022

The chief technology officer of ASML said high-NA may be the end of the line for lithography.

"For years, I’ve been suspecting that high-NA will be the last NA, and this belief hasn’t changed.” said Martin van den Brink, in an interview with Bits & Chips.
1/9 Thread $ASML

2/9 ASML CTO
ASML is researching the successor to high-NA, called hyper-NA. But the cost of hyper-NA may be too high.

“If the cost of hyper-NA grows as fast as we’ve seen in high-NA, it will pretty much be economically unfeasible,” Van den Brink said.
#Semiconductors $ASML

3/9 ASML CTO
The goal of ASML’s hyper-NA research program is to come up with ways to keep costs down.

“We’re trying to come up with fundamental changes in manufacturing and design to make sure that if we’re going to do it, it will be economically feasible,” he said.
$ASML

Read 9 tweets

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