Thread by @jmkorhonen

#CeterumCenseo Russia must be defeated.

Europe and the rest of the democratic world should collectively realize, soonest, that #Ukraine has now put #democracy and its idea of collective security to a test: can autocratic states overrun smaller democracies one by one, or not?

Democracies are inherently not well suited for territorial and resource aggrandizement. But autocracies can be.

On the other hand, democracies ARE inherently well-suited for human rights and liberty. They are good in itself, but also promote scientific and economic development.

Democracy prevailed in the 1900s largely thanks to these advantages and the happy accident that the resources of the United States remained broadly speaking on the side of democracy when it really mattered.

But in a resource-constrained world (i.e. on any planet of finite radius), scientific and economic development eventually achieves if not a plateau, then at least a highland of diminishing returns.

And unfettered markets tend to concentrate wealth, which diminishes democracy.

So eventually there will be a time when there are autocracies and democracies that do not have qualitative technological superiority over each other.

I think just about everyone who has thought of international politics has eventually dismissed anarchism for this reason.

I sincerely believe that democracy and self-determination are not just goods-in-themselves and in themselves worth huge sacrifices, but that they are also the key to a #sustainable future here on Earth.

It's very hard to see any stable international arrangements otherwise.

Sooner or later, we get a world where either

1) an expanding circle of individually not-warlike democratic polities collectively defends itself against predatory states and eventually prevents their emergence, or
2 hierarchical power blocs vie for dominance.

I'm ABSOLUTELY certain that every idea of human rights, progress, and environmental sustainability would fare FAR worse in option 2. In fact, given the increasing power of technology, I believe humanity is likely to doom itself into an extinction in that option.

I'm also certain that democracies will realize this sooner or later.

Then we will ask "if standing up against predators and helping Ukraine was possible after all, why didn't we do it as soon as possible?"

#CeterumCenseo Russia must be defeated.

And before anyone says it, yes, I'm perfectly aware I'm using Latin, the language that gave us among other things the word "Imperium" and hence "imperialist."

Because that autocratic polity prevailed over smaller polities that didn't stick to each other, dooming themselves.

Unless we learn from past mistakes, then we are doomed to repeat them. In a constrained world, there will be a conflict for essential resources. If we don't want a world of power blocs and resource grabs, we need collective defense.

Let me also note that there is a very prevalent idea in Russia as the "third Rome", the supposed heir to the Roman Empire.

I think many in Russia believe they would win in a world of power blocs, even if they didn't win outright in Ukraine.

It is also self evident that the United Nations as it stands today isn't an instrument for democracy.

Sooner or later we need a collective self-defense organization that explicitly repudiates intervention except against aggression.

I'd prefer the above realization sooner rather than later. So until Russia is defeated and Ukraine wins itself its more than well-deserved freedom, I shall be ending my every Twitter thread with #CeterumCenseo Russia must be defeated.

PS. If someone can make you believe that Russia - the most blatant example of kleptocracy in recent history - is here the one that's standing up for democracy and the little man, then he just proved my point above.

#CeterumCenseo Russia must be defeated.