Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Jan 13 17 tweets 8 min read
Exceptionally I share this 🧵 before reading the studies therein, because (1) it is above my nonexistent pay grade; the wizards among you will be better qualified; and (2) as emotional support. It is incredibly sad that we let this population-scale experiment proceed unmitigated.
1. We have been warning with exceptional clarity for more than half a year (or three years, depending what you count).

Yet it is different if you drill into the mechanisms - as you must if you want to explain and bend policy, against the forces of normal.
2. Here another great Canadian report building on the SARS Commission report by Mario Possamai (his surname’s literal meaning: he who never rests). Canada seems to be ahead of other countries in the pandemic race or in documenting lessons not learned. 🙏😌 nursesunions.ca/wp-content/upl…
3. Virologists are giving policymakers and the public flawed advice in the Fourth year.

Feel free to ignore me, but as an activist-scholar I say it clearly. We experience an unprecedented collapse of the problem-solving ability of large-scale institutions like states or empires.
4. Why I warn: It’s a nonlinear process. (N and Orf10 are close/can overlap)

I tried to understand what Germany - or any country, safe China -’s plan is.

If you keep reinfecting children or adults, many won’t grow old.

No need to have your own children to know what that means.
5. We knew most of this by summer 2020, if not by February. I didn’t understand how exactly the elements fit together, but they were all there. Of course we can wait a few more years, never to risk being “wrong” or seen as “alarmist”

Or we can help people who urgently need help.
6. For all who paid attention, it’s been a long three years.

If you see me impatient with the arrogant virologists who keep misleading billions worldwide in year Four, you now know why. It is unacceptable on any grounds - moral, human rights, national interest, you name it.
7. How do you feel about where we are heading?

Especially all of you who are wildly more qualified* to address it?

* that makes 💯 of #medtwitter and many other professions.

I studied some law, economics, IR/public policy, system dynamics - but nothing prepared me for this.
8. This is not to criticize; more to warn as clearly as possible after a full three years in this pandemic somehow convinced most people that the pandemic is “over” at precisely the moment when it’s really ramping up to whatever the next phase is, now that China entered the game.
To warn clearly: if enough people ignore it, it will fall heavily on your feet. Not by choice; it’s how a SARS virus evolving for higher viral load behaves. (The weird exception being - Omicron!)

It falls on your feet unless you take great precautions to stop it well in advance.
None of this should need much explaining, certainly no three years.

The flip side of my not being qualified in any of it is that literally anyone else could do what I do, and likely far better.

Go ahead if that’s you! We need you.

Thanks all.
9. Make sure no one stumbles over the word collapse: it describes what you are currently experiencing, the feeling of disorientation and loss of meaning when things don’t fit anymore - or, for some, never did. An old friend of ours on the climate side, now meeting the mainstream.
10. We’ve been there, don’t despair.

I think there’s meaning in struggling for solutions - or with their absence. But it is an acquired gift. You need to work for it.

I don’t think of SARS as existential in the same sense as climate. It’s decades faster and solvable. We should!
11. Let me add, as I saw even @W_Lucht, great scientist and voice of wisdom or moral clarity in the climate field, struggle (see above and @ClimatePhilo’s book).

Yes, addressing SARS and climate will take time and focus. Let’s start. 🙏

Solidarity #Luetzerrath #Luetzerathbleibt
11.S1 Not to quote out of the blue. 🙏✊
12. I always end on a constructive note. The solutions for SARS and climate will be related. Both are merely symptoms of deeper ailings in society that we need to address.

Start with aviation, WHO and the United Nations: Fantastic thread to know whom to trust or what to do. 😎🔥

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More from @_ppmv

Jan 13
Genius thread and Gedankenexperiment. Reflect; share your notes. - I’d add that, perhaps counterintuitively, public health shouldn’t expect the public to trust it. It is part of our problem. PH should provide accountability as we expect from corporations. (quote Sandman/@EIDGeek)
1. Great speech, I shared before because it fits SARS and even climate, if you follow UNFCCC #COP28 news.

Sadly climate is even worse off, no climate Dr. Fauci to be seen, so you’re best off iterating or integrating both. psandman.com/articles/berre…
2. The dynamics of SARS - the virus, disease, and IPE - are changing.

Just when I put them down as scripted, @ashishkjha @Bob_Wachter are warning clearly? Something shifted.

Dr. Jha even likens SARS-CoV-2 to climate & sea-level rise. For real, my respect
Read 8 tweets
Jan 12
To UN/@WHO scholars or historians: “Notes from donor: was presented by two government/political science professors named Henry Galant & Priscilla Greeley on a Schenectady, NY TV station circa 1954-55”

Charmingly put, and shared with permission, by @wcanthony. Brilliant find, ty!
Manuscript could interest Cold War historians; perhaps #twitterstorian’s can give background. Ht @SethCotlar @nils_gilman @ProfPaulPoast
Read 4 tweets
Jan 12
1. Beautiful thread to renew trust in our ability to self-organize around shared meaning and values. 🥲🙏

—a Build #CorsiRosenthalBox's in school/kita; great educational projects!

—b Recall relative humidity is as important (should be 40-60%).

—c Scientifically, there is more:
2. Scientifically we face a systems-of-systems problem.

—c Aviation sustains the pandemic, ensuring that virus will always stay months ahead of drugs and vaccines. Standard quarantine regulations for some routes are key.

—a|b Local adaptations help but won't end the pandemic.
3. That's why we need policy people. There is no shortcut south of integrated, transdisciplinary analysis and effective policy design.

I should work rather than oracle on twitter, but no one talks about this.
Read 10 tweets
Jan 12
2. Why don’t we have the manufacturing capacity and Health Care Workers to get everyone the care the deserve?
3. The family of Long COVID is growing at a rate of 100,000+ patients per day!

States are defying their legal obligations by not collecting data and not reporting to WHO as they should under IHR 2005.
Read 17 tweets
Jan 11
Find yourself someone who loves you as fiercely as Chris critiques the state of journalism on plague island. (Not picking on dear UK friends, I bet 🇩🇪 is just the same, I just don’t follow it here)

My god someone pls send her our accounts & threads on how to end the pandemic. 😬
1. There were warnings for those who cared to read.
2. There are even solutions no one talks about. I still don’t understand why.
Read 9 tweets
Jan 11
1. "Live with COVID," we were told. How long exactly?

We have 4,100 HIV infections, and more than 600,000 SARS infections per day (1.5 million/year v. 660 million/1100 days).

Both cause chronic immune activation, a systemic pro-inflammatory cytokine milieu, and premature aging.
2. Frailty - immunosenescence - follows. The effect is strongest in children. Literature on telomere shortening in HIV+ children exists.

This is what Drosten means, warning that at 30, unvaccinated SARS+ children may "have the immune system of an 80 yo."
journals.lww.com/aidsonline/ful…
3. He errs when he implies or claims vaccines will protect children. Their effect on LongCOVID (=chronic immune activation) is numerically irrelevant.

All this is already leaving out the finer reasons that make SARS-CoV-2 dangerous - positive feedback effects and other concerns.
Read 14 tweets

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