Thread by @IvoIliev20

In the early stages of #Russia's invasion, critically important help for #Ukraine has come from an unexpected place: #Bulgaria, led by PM @KirilPetkov. I provide some additional context about this curious report in the 🧵below. 1/
politico.eu/article/bulgar…

One thing ahead: the title is way too bombastic (“secretly saved”?) and full of platitudes that are irrelevant to the topic (“EU’s poorest country”). But what can you do, we live in the age of #clickbait. Apart from this dubitable editorial choice, it is an informative piece. 2/

On April 19th, 2022, 🇺🇦 foreign minister @DmytroKuleba visited Bulgaria and stayed for two full days, meeting various government representatives. Needless to say, “boosting trade and tourism” was barely the purpose of the visit. 3/

https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1516395667643637768?s=20&t=mtDBwEFVophg4pAS9G4xpA

Understandably, what must have been much more interesting for the Ukrainian side is Bulgaria’s comparatively well-developed military-industrial complex, and in particular -- the military plant “Arsenal” located in the town of Kazanlăk. 4/

“Arsenal” is one of the oldest and largest enterprises in Bulgaria, with thousands of employees, and an annual turnover of tens of millions of €. But most crucially, it is among the largest producers of ammunition compatible with the Soviet standard outside of Russia... 5/

...precisely the standard used by most 🇺🇦artillery, especially at the onset of the war. I have no military expertise, but in this case, 2+2=4.
Thus Petkov's claim that 🇧🇬 supplied up to 30% of all ammunition for 🇺🇦 might be an exaggeration, idk. But it is entirely possible. 6/

Incidentally - or not - the plant repeatedly caught fire - on November 1st, and again on November 25th 2022, but no major damage occurred. 7/
news.bg/regions/nov-po…
btvnovinite.bg/predavania/taz…

Now, the political side of the story is especially spicy. At the time, Bulgaria had a fragmented 7-party parliament and a fragile four-party coalition of strange bedfellows: PP, BSP, ITN, and DB. Together, the four had a tight majority of just slightly above 50% of the seats. 8/

Two of the coalition partners, PP (@promenibg, the PM’s party) and DB (@DemokratiBG ) from the liberal pro-EU camp, were eager to help #Ukraine. However, the Bulgarian Socialist Party, which has always been staunchly pro-Russian, blocked any military assistance in parliament. 9/

The 4th party, ITN, a messy populist formation led by former showman Slavi Trifonov, simply had no idea what is going on or how to position itself. Btw, later ITN blew up the coalition agreement for no reason and sent the country to snap elections for the 4th time in 4 years. 10/

So helping Ukraine was not a simple task for PM @KirilPetkov. Long story short, he had to circumnavigate two out of his three coalition partners and avoid a parliament vote. This was done by authorising middlemen to export indirectly to 🇺🇦 through third-party companies. 11/

It was not until much later that the BG parliament voted to authorise arms exports to Ukraine. This only happened in December 2022, during a still ongoing interregnum period, after the collapse of the coalition and with no new government in sight. 12/
dnevnik.bg/politika/2022/…

Another particularly striking thing is that, with the PM's and the financial minister's blessing, Bulgaria's major oil refinery at the Black Sea has been quietly re-exporting surplus oil to Ukraine, again using intermediaries. The oil itself was coming from... Russia... 13/

All of this happened more or less under the radar. Yet Russia's stance towards Bulgaria has been aggressive: it has included BG in the list of 'unfriendly countries' and in April 2022, it unilaterally cut off all gas supplies to BG after the gvmt refused to pay in roubles. 14/

With some help from some friends, though, Bulgaria went from 90% dependency on 🇷🇺 gas imports to 0% within the year. This thread from F.A.Z.'s correspondent Michael Martens explains the details very well: 15/

https://twitter.com/Andric1961/status/1610601330493497346?s=20&t=RHV67co16q2dqV3rkTg22Q

Bulgaria has, somewhat unfairly, the reputation of being Moscow's trojan horse in the EU and has recently been often cited together with Hungary. But neither is the country as heavily penetrated by 🇷🇺 capital as is it commonsensically assumed (rather look at Cyprus for that), 16/

nor has its political course been loyalist to the Kremlin, especially after February 24. Even the Bulgarian Socialists, for all their rhetorical commitment to Moscow, have undertaken literally nothing to jeopardise the PM's deals. 17/

In sum, I consider these news very positive. True, Bulgaria is in chaos now, without a working government in sight. But showing solidarity with Ukraine is not just a reputational issue. It is an existential, and a genuinely ethical matter for every European country.