Thread by @stackshiny

(1 of 25) Thread: CBDC rollout will blast #gold & #silver into once-in-a-generation "moonshot" (e.g. $250/oz++ silver in today's purchasing power). #silversqueeze is great, but is a stratospheric trajectory; CBDCs result in a lunar orbit (only if positioned properly), here's why:

(2 of 25) I'm not saying #gold & #silver can't (or won't) shine BEFORE dUSD (digital/CBDC US Dollars) arrive, NOR that anyone should wait to get their hands on physical metals. And I'm also talking about REAL, physical metals here, not that rehypothecated paper stuff. On we go:

(3 of 25) dUSD will be introduced to us as a 'parallel' system, meaning both USD and dUSD will both be considered legal tender. It will start off with a fixed peg, and for this thread we will assume that will be 1:1 dUSD:USD. Essentially, dUSD/USD will be interchangeable at first

(4 of 25) Rather than jump straight to what most people think of w/CBDCs (having a dUSD 'wallet' directly on a Central Bank ledger), banks will act as custodians/intermediaries at first; Your accounts at banking institutions will have options of being denominated in USD or dUSD

(5 of 25) Your debit cards, checks, PayPal, etc. will work just like they do now. Behind the scenes, if spending a USD balance on a dUSD transaction, the financial institution will do the conversion 'automagically', just as they do with foreign currency transactions today.

(6 of 25) There will be an 'adoption' period during which most people won't even notice a difference in their day-to-day lives, all aimed to get the masses comfortable w/dUSD while in this frictionless, fixed-peg, parallel system. But behind the curtains big things are happening

(7 of 25) Government entities will be first to move entirely to dUSD. Stimmy checks, tax refunds, tax bills, & day-to-day transactions will be dUSD-denominated. Even if citizens keep most bank accounts in USD, many will open dUSD accounts if receiving payments from gov't.

(8 of 25) Further incentives to open dUSD accounts at your bank will likely be driven through fees; something like 3-5% "conversion" fee when paying a dUSD transaction using your USD balance, or receiving a dUSD remittance into a USD-denominated account.

(9 of 25) As big corporations switch all their books to dUSD, more and more of "everyday" spending will all become denominated in dUSD -- electric bills, property taxes, gas/fuel, cell service/internet, and big-box stores make the switch over first.

(10 of 25) At this point, with many salaries being paid in dUSD, most bills and purchases at big businesses being dUSD, a large swath of the populace will at LEAST maintain a dUSD account by now.

Cash will still exist, but will be USD only. No CBDC cash/physical analogue.

(11 of 25) Stores/retail will begin phasing out acceptance of cash payments, as cash means accepting USD, which the business then has to convert to dUSD (and pay fees) to pay their bills & taxes. Cash becomes a domain relegated mostly to private transactions and small biz

(12 of 25) The next crucial step involves liabilities (debt). Creditors that are in "The Club" (the big one that you, me, and most people aren't in) will be allowed to redenominate debts owed to them from USD into dUSD. Think mortgages, credit card balances, business loans, etc.

(13 of 25) These debts will be converted from USD into dUSD at the fixed peg; if you owe 550K USD on your mortgage, that will become a debt of 550K dUSD. Credit cards will make the same switch, as will any debt owed to "The Club" by non-club members. You won't have a choice.

(14 of 25) This redenomination of debt will not apply equally; winners & losers WILL be picked, w/the former granted regulatory loopholes & the latter receiving hurdles. This inequality will be downplayed as the USD:dUSD fixed peg will still be described as "concrete/long-term"

(15 of 25) What's being done here is setting the stage for the inevitable: once all debts owed to "The Club" are denominated in dUSD, the USD:dUSD peg can be broken and the legacy USD allowed to hyperinflate into oblivion. Plebians won't escape their debts.

(16 of 25) It's essentially the easiest way to default (via monetization) on debts "The Club" doesn't want to pay back (national debt, corporate bonds, tax rebates, pensions, etc.), while ensuring all the debts ordinary people owe TO "The Club" are forced to be paid back in full

(17 of 25) This is one of the reasons I plan to stay debt-free, & advise others not to over-leverage themselves with secured loans/mortgages, expecting to repay debts with inflated/devalued USD. I don't believe for a minute any of us plebs will be allowed to enjoy that privilege

(18 of 25) There are many other carrots & sticks (could fill a whole book) which will incentivize the masses to *voluntarily* board the dUSD/CBDC train, but many of these require a brief, stable, frictionless 'adoption' period in which both currencies operate in parallel

(19 of 25) The end result is the same, eventually any fix/peg is broken and all remaining USDs (cash stuffed in mattresses, private loans, liabilities "The Club" owes to YOU) will begin evaporating faster than a bucket of dry ice in the Saharan mid-day sun.

(20 of 25) Any sceptics with USD deposits or USD-denominated loans will RUN to the banks to convert those into dUSD, or spend the USD on anything & everything just to keep some of their purchasing power intact. The final holdouts or those unable will be left with nothing.

(21 of 25) It is during this stable 'adoption' period when portable, private, tangible wealth such as #gold and #silver becomes #unobtainium, and prices for the PHYSICAL metals rocket into lunar orbit. If you think today's 10-15% premia are high, wait until you see 1500%+

(22 of 25) Paper metals (futures, ETFs, etc.) are just rehypothecated/fictional metals with 200-500+ IOUs on each physical unit. When those schemes collapse, IOU holders will be forced to cash-settle, in USD, with the checks being cut & sent well into the death throes of the USD.

(23 of 25) Physical metals, on the other hand, would not only leave their fictitious paper prices in the dust, but would even overshoot their 'fair free-market' value by leaps and bounds, as demand is finally allowed to meet supply in the shock of a lifetime

(24 of 25) This likely scenario of a CBDC / dUSD rollout "parallel/complimentary" to USD ticks all the game theory boxes when acknowledging the game itself is rigged (not in our favor), and those controlling the tables have no intention of relinquishing that control

(25 of 25) There is not enough physical #gold (nor #silver) available to us plebs to pose any threat to this rollout. #silversqueeze'rs stacking physical metals are positioning well, but I have seen too much leverage being utilized by many & wanted to warn them of this scenario