@halfin predicted #Bitcoin could become the global dominant payment system, or $10,000,000 per coin.
(This is closer to $40,000,000 today)
#Bitcoin would not surpass $1 until April 2011... Over two full years later.
How could he have predicted this?
What @halfin understood is that upon the invention of perfect money all global wealth would inevitably consolidate into it. Ford, Tesla, and others also foresaw this.
Closed (monetary) system inevitably absorbs all open (productivity) systems.
Money is the technology that prices everything else within its own ledger.
There is no "top" price prediction for an immutable monetary standard of the human race, THE STANDARD IS THE PRICE.
So, a better way to think of #Bitcoin's value is NOT in prices but in purchasing power.
Overlaying a share of monetary stock with a given amount of productivity (or economic value) is a better way to predict the money's value.
Worth noting that in a finite ledger, wealth inequality as we know it today does the reverse as we expect today. (A topic for another time.)
First, let's clarify "entities."
We have 10 arbitrary "groups" loosely based on today's wide ranging estimates of mega-rich entities to those in poverty (and rounded for simple math).
All people, nations, and companies are included in this approximate ranking of wealth.
Second, we have to account for what is often attributed to "Pareto's Principle."
The vast majority of productivity is created by the minority of people, and the vast majority of that productivity is created within the minority of that minority.
This is true in all productivity.
Third, we must account for the monetary stock to fill into our matrix.
It often said there will "only be 21 million #Bitcoin" however this is not true.
Accounting for lost #Bitcoin there could easily be lower than 16,000,000 soon.
For the sake of simplicity, we will use this.
When we loosely follow a Pareto distribution and today's current ranked distribution of entities, this is what we get.
Fascinating results.
(Of course; @saylor / MSTR, the US government, and a few select others are these 10 "mega rich" entities.)
This makes sense, as today's #Bitcoin rankings are similar in concept. The largest group have been shrinking in coin size as value of coins goes up.
As the value of the monetary unit increases, the average balance decreases. Will continue to do so.
Since the value of #Bitcoin doesn't come from #BTC but instead from it accurately reflecting prosperity gains, it is worth remembering the average middle class person of the future will be far wealthier.
An average person today is more prosperous than a 20th century billionaire.
Therefore, if #Bitcoin merely SURVIVES... as little as 800,000 sats could purchase a lifestyle in the future far more luxurious than an upper-middle class lifestyle today.
Sounds crazy, but:
Prosperity increases exponentially over time. #Bitcoin per entity decreases over time.
However, that's not all.
There are only just over 2,000,000 #Bitcoin left on exchanges (decreasing fast).
There are just under another 2,000,000 left to be mined.
Let's take a hyper-bullish scenario and assume there are only 4 million #BTC to be distributed, not 16 million.
If we do the math here, things only get more absurd.
In this scenario, as little as $14.81 of #Bitcoin today is as much as the average ENTITY will be able to own in the future.
75,000 sats (in the right time horizon) could be literally LIFE CHANGING to a person of the future.
Some questions for modeling next 20 yrs:
What if global wealth and prosperity increases 10x?
A closed monetary system is DESIGNED to never be too late for anyone, no matter how much or little productivity they have. All network participants benefit from equality and simplicity of its design, unlike fiat.
YOU HAVE LESS in common with an average person from the year 2123 than with a Roman citizen from the year 23, even though the future person is 20x closer to you in time.
Does the person born in 1923 have more in common with us today in 2023 or a Roman in the year 23?
23.
FOR BOTH:
childbirth is quite deadly
malaria is a real threat
most infants don’t make it adulthood
air conditioning is an absurd concept
80% of the humanity is STILL in poverty
most have never seen a picture of (let alone been to) a foreign land
life expectancy is similar
neither have “entertainment” besides reading (assuming they can read)
wars are fought face to face and most death is via disease