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Jan 25 8 tweets 3 min read
SEBI today released a detailed study on analysis of Profit and Loss of Individual traders in Equity F&O.

We highlight the key observations below
#Trading #riskmanagement
1/n
2/n
🗓️ Period of study: FY19 to FY22 with a focus to analyze trends before and after Covid-19 outbreak.

📊Unique F&O traders (Top 10 brokerages): Up over 500% from 7.1 lakhs in FY19 to 45.2 lakhs in FY22

🧑‍💻Male traders are over 80% in both FY19 and FY22
3/n
Most active age group:
- 30-40 years (39%)
- 20-30 years (36% ---> up from 11% in FY19)

💰🔺🔻
Loss making traders in FY22: 89% (vs 85% in FY19)

3 in 20 traders was profitable in FY19, which is now 2 in 20 traders in FY22.

Average loss active traders: Rs. 1.1 lakh in FY22
4/n
Some implied maths:
- Active F&O traders in FY22: 45.2L
- Loss making traders (89%): 40.2L
- Average loss: Rs 1.1 L
- Total losses: Rs 44,251 crores

However, avg. loss excluding outliers (top 5%) is Rs 0.5L. So, average losses of outliers (~2 lakh traders) is Rs 12.5 lakhs.
5/n
Profit makers:

Average loss of loss makers (89%) was 15x the avg. profit by a profit maker (11%)

- Top 1% and top 5% of active profit makers make nearly 51% and 75% of the total profit made.

📌Note: Of 45 lakh active traders, top 4,950 traders make 51% of overall profits.
6/n
Product wise trend:
Split between Futures and Options (for active traders):
- Futures (FY19: 43%, FY22: 11%)
- Options (FY19: 89%, FY22: 98%)

Traders have actively resorted to Options, shifting from Futures.
7/n
Client participation:
A. Options:
- Index Options traders jumped up 8x and Stock Options traders jumped 5x in last 3 years.

- Average losses of 0.77 lakhs in Index Options vs average losses of of 0.66 lakhs in Stock Options.

B. Futures:
8/n
Average P&L across age groups:

Youngest age group (<20 years) comprise 1% of all (i.e. ~45000). Surprisingly, this age group is the best performing with avg loss of 9,257

Note: This group also has the highest avg profit of 4.92L for the profit makers in FY22.

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More from @ICICI_Direct

Jan 25
Good morning. 10 key updates for you today:

1. Bharti Airtel: Has rolled out higher minimum recharge plans across 7 states.
Replaced plans of Rs 99/109/111 with Rs 155 in AP, Bihar, HP, Karnataka, N. East, Rajasthan and UP (West).

ARPU expected to inch to Rs 200/-
Positive
2. Indus Towers has made a doubtful debt provision of Rs 2,298 crore on receivables from Vodafone Idea, raising concerns on its ability to remain a Going concern.

VI has been unable to raise additional funds in the last quarter.
3. Price hikes, top-end car sales drive Maruti Q3 net profit up 130% yoy to Rs 2,391 crores. The order book for Brezza and Grand Vitara remains strong.

Read Q3 results analysis here: bit.ly/marutisuzukire…
Read 7 tweets
Jan 23
Q3 results for Private Banks results are out.

A thread 🧵 comparing the loan book mix and annual/ yoy growth across segments for:

- HDFC Bank
- ICICI Bank
- Kotak Mahindra Bank
- Axis Bank
- IndusInd Bank

1/n
1. HDFC Bank

- Total advances: Rs 15.2 lakh cr
- Mix of Retail: Commercial: Corporate 40%: 38%: 26%
- Growth of above = 20%/ 30%/ 20%
- Balanced growth across segments

Highlight:
1. Largest Personal loan book; double of ICICI Bank
2. Went slow in Corporate lending this qtr
2/n Image
2. ICICI Bank

- Total advances: Rs 9.74 lakh cr
- Mix of Retail: Commercial: Corporate 54%: 24%: 23%
- Growth of above = 23%/ 16%/ 18%

Highlight:
1. Aggressive on Personal Loan and Credit cards - grown at 42-51% vs 23% for HDFC Bank
2. Home Loan and LAP are 1/3rd of book

3/n Image
Read 7 tweets
Jan 20
As some key Banking results are lined up, here are 10 things to check when analyzing a Bank.

+ Comparison of key metrics of Banking results (HDFC Bank, IndusInd Bank, Federal Bank).

A thread🧵
1/n
Understand Advances (Loan book)

- Compare advances growth on YoY & QoQ basis
- Segment-wise mix (Corporate, MSME, Retail & Agri)
- Retail growth is preferred as it offers relatively stable asset quality with higher margins

Results so far: Strong

Leading: HDFC Bank Image
2/n
Deposit Growth:

- Key source of funds for Banks
- Currently, deposit growth is a key differentiator
- High increasing share of low cost deposit (CASA) i.e balance of saving & current a/c is preferred.

Results so far: Better than expected
Leading: HDFC Bank Image
Read 13 tweets
Jan 20
Our Research team has upgraded Nykaa from hold to ADD as valuation has turned palatable.

At current price, a reverse DCF shows valuation is factoring in a 15% revenue CAGR, which is reasonable.

More details in thread below:
1/n
#Nykaa #ICICISecurities Image
2/n
As per our estimates, value of BPC business segment is Rs 100 assuming no operating revenue/profit from fashion & other new biz (B2B + BPC-Men).

Sensitivity analysis:

Value potential for BPC business: Rs 100-240
Value potential for fashion business: Rs 14-75

CMP: 129
3/n

Key metrics and charts - consolidated business

#Nykaa #ICICISecurities Image
Read 6 tweets
Jan 20
ICICI Direct Research's Gladiator Pick:
#Siemens
Recommended Price: 2990-3025
Target: 3420
Stop loss: 2790
Upside Target: 13%

(1/12) Image
Technical Rationale:
1. The capital goods sector has been one of the key outperformers of CY22 and is seen extending its up move after last one month’s higher base formation. The index has given a breakout from decade long consolidation in CY21.

(2/12)
2. Within the sector, we remain constructive on Siemens as it remains in strong up trend and has generated a breakout above a triangular consolidation of the last four months signalling resumption of up move, thus offering a fresh entry opportunity

(3/12)
Read 13 tweets
Jan 10
1/14

It's that time of the year when your company HR asks for your investment proofs.

Does this tax planning stress you?🥵
It won't any more😌

10 powerful tax saving tips for salaried employees. A thread🧵👇

#taxplanning #icicidirect
2/14
First get basics in place before you think of exotic solutions.

A. 80C investment upto ₹1.5L can save up to 46,800/-
🔶 PPF
🔶 Employee's Contribution to PF
🔶 Equity Linked Savings Scheme (Tax Saver MF)
🔶 Endowment/Term /ULIP Insurance Policies
🔶 Home Loan Principal etc
3/14

80C/ What to choose for investment?

Here are basic differences b/w ULIP policies, PPF, ELSS to know👇

Factors you should consider are return expectation, variability of return, lock-in period and tax implication.

🟢 Good; 🔴 Not so good
Read 16 tweets

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