Let me explain the time line โฆ. As LIC KEPT BUYING #AdaniEnterprises given the low free float, the stock kept going up and hence #AdaniEnterprises entered the following indices (1) FTSE (2) MSCI - the BIG DEAL (3) NIFTY50 - All your @socialepfo, @LICIndiaForever and #NPS money
MSCI INDEX: generally RULE based but they have Discretionary powers to make decisions on specific instances when investors raise concerns around stocks.
FACT that most ACTIVE Institutional Investors are staying away from Adani Stocks & have made their discomfort known to MSCI.
NOW, letโs say that #MSCI Index Committee takes Note of the Accusations that #HindenburgReport makes - relevant being - that AdaniGroup Directors or Family indirectly Control or Funded 5-7 FIIs that Own the Chunk of Adani Free Float, then MSCI will consider that as PROMOTER
Hypothetically if MSCI considers the 5-7 FIIs as Promoter then all the Adani Stocks where these FIIs hold most of the float will be REMOVED from the MSCI and in my opinion even FTSE will implement the same. SUCH an action will be Massively Supported by the ACTIVE FUND Managers
HYPOTHETICALLY if either or both MSCI and/or FTSE do such an action then eventually NSE might have to consider the same - at-least there will be pressure to consider the same
HYPOTHETICALLY is these INDEX PROVIDER ACTIONS happens, then itโs as good as #NUKE
PICTURE Baki Hai!
All the above is HYPOTHETICAL!
โข โข โข
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#ACC#ACEM Both Fallen 15-20% .... Are they Cheap? You Decide. Here is the data. #ACC Cmp Rs1840... TTM PE as of yday. 49.50x... So after 15% Fall, its TTM PE would be 42.5x .... Ultratech 32x and has been reporting better REV & PAT growth. So #ACC enjoys a 30% #AdaniPremium.
#AMBUJA Cmp Rs368... TTM PE as of yday 50.2x... So after 20% Fall, its TTM PE would be 40.7x .... Ultratech 32x and has been reporting better REV & PAT growth. So #AMBUJA enjoys a 27% #AdaniPremium.
Here is the Chart for Ultratech Cement just for reference. One More thing is that both ACC & AMBUJA were LEVERAGED buy-outs as per media reports. Basically, the entire $6.5bn Shares of ACC and AMBUJA has been pledged. In Addition, $4bn Allocated for Open Offer.
#ChristopherWood is a well known Global Strategist and VERY bullish on India. This is what #FOREIGN Portfolio Investors are telling him and Kindly NOTE, this is before the WEAK CONSUMER RESULTS and #HindenburgReport
#BillAckman is a very well respected name in the World of Finance and Hedge Funds. The fact that he actually bothered to comment on #AdaniGroup and #hindenburgresearch suggests that this Episode has become #Mainstream in US FINANCIAL Markets. What does it mean ?
#AdaniGroup#Hindenburg Report will become Main Stream Discussion in the Broad Rooms of all the Major Financial Institutions in the World, Investment Banks, Pension Fund, Sovereign Funds, Hedge Funds, Rating Agencies, ESG agencies, Bond Holders etc
For Now, Most International Banks, International Bond Holders and any intermediaries will PUT any decision Making on #AdaniGroup on Hold and will try and REDUCE EXPOSURE.
1/n Why should you #ElectricityBill witness 30% #Inflation ?. Per Media reports, Private power utilities seek up to 30% hike in tariff in Mumbai/ Here are the details.
2/n In Short @Adani Electricity has proposed a 2-7% hike in tariffs (more expensive vs Tata Power to start with) across consumption buckets and Tata Power 10-30% hike for low-end consumers and 6-7% drop for high-end customers in petitions filed before Maharashtra Regulator MERC
3/n "The proposed hike of 30% for consumers living in slums and chawls in 0-100 units category may sound alarming. .this is rationalization of tariff. Our tariff was very low in this category and over Rs1/unit less than the rival (Adani)" @TataPower
During this spaces I was making a point that when one focusses on Govt Capex Numbers & Bitumen consumption, one does not see so called Big Growth vs Past.
Road data point which i wld like @CaGhanshamJoshi
Ji to share his views. Road Orders in FY22 is same as FY12
So What explains the Buoyancy of LISTED companies ? In the past, usually 10 to 15 bidders for every project. So the PIE was divided amongst many players. Many of these companies have disappeared (so have jobs).
Now Only 5-6 bidders & same PIE being shared
The COST per Kilometer has increased by 300% since 2014... See the Road Orders and See the Road Budget.
Am not able to understand how the INPUT or RAW materials (Rock Jelly, Cement, Bitumen, Labor, Energy) has increased by 300% since 2014