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Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Jan 29

#Critical_Goods: European pharmaceutical associations are ringing the bells about antibiotic shortages in the EU. The recent waves of respiratory infections as well as the reduction in the production of medicines due to high energy prices have affected the supply,⤵️

causing the current shortage. The European pharmaceutical regulator (EMA) is criticized for failing to monitor and prevent shortages. Stricter pharmaceutical legislation is called for from the EU Commission to detect potential shortages early and ensure supply resilience.⤵️

One part of the preventive tools that will be fully operational from 2025 is a European scarcity monitoring platform. By then, pharmaceutical stakeholders are demanding that the EMA effectively fulfill its post-COVID-19 responsibilities regarding drug shortages.

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Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Jan 29

#Russia_Sanctions: It seems that the ban on Russian diamonds is within the reach of the authors of the tenth package of sanctions. The EU wants to have it ready before February 24, when Russia has launched a full-scale war against Ukraine. However, there are two main obstacles.⤵️

1) Belgium is the largest importer of Russian diamonds in the EU and would agree to finally accept the ban if an international traceability mechanism is established. The West represents 70% of the diamond market. As in the case of oil, Russia could divert the supply to third ⤵️

countries that, after processing, can re-export it to the EU. 2) The regional govt where the Flemish nationalists are in power could veto Belgium's vote to ban diamonds. Flanders support the producers in Antwerp that refuse to lose Alrosa's import of raw materials from Russia.

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Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Jan 28

#Russia_Sanctions: The US warned Turkey, the UAE and Oman with secondary sanctions if they continue to be involved in supplying dual-use items to Russia. The US is especially upset by the Turkish actions, which refer to services offered by Turkish companies to⤵️

Russian airlines using US planes. This overlaps with the Turkish boycott of NATO enlargement with regard to Sweden. Turkey is preparing for general elections in May and receiving acid comments from the West could favor Erdogan (AKP). ⤵️

However, if the West wants Ukraine's military efforts against Russia to succeed, it should be tougher on its own allies when it comes to circumventing sanctions. They should be reminded that there is no free lunch.

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Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Jan 28

#Russia: Putin's war plans after nearly a year of continuous aggression against Ukraine have shifted to a medium to long-term perspective. There are several circumstances that Russia wants to take advantage of to gain strategic positioning by prolonging the war: 🧵⤵️

1) Counteroffensive: Russia is clear about its intentions to devise a new counteroffensive, which can occur from three directions (North, Kharkiv and Donbas). However, the most likely would be the one in Donbas or a combination of attacks from all three directions at once.⤵️

This should happen in Feb, if Russia seeks to gain the upper hand until Ukraine receives Western military aid which is supposed to arrive by the end of March at the earliest. 2) Sanctions: Although sanctions regimes and oil price spikes are decimating Russian budget revenue,⤵️

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Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Jan 27

#GlobalSouth: EU's diplomacy chief visits South Africa as part of the preparations for the future South Africa-EU summit. Borrell stressed that the summit will outline some strategic objectives in the field of raw material value chains and cooperation in the field of ⤵️

renewable hydrogen, among others. Borrell's visit follows Lavrov's trip to South Africa, in preparation for the Russia-Africa summit in July 2023. Although South Africa is the main EU trader on the African continent (Economic Partnership Agreement), Russia and China are ⤵️

closer in strategic terms due to links through BRICS. The EU will be forced to offer more "carrots" if it wants to become more attractive to South Africa. The power contestation between the West, on the one hand, and Russia and China, on the other, ⤵️

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Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Jan 19

#CentralAsia: Kyrgyzstan is about to introduce stricter rules on the use of the Kyrgyz language in parliamentary activity (switch to Kyrgyz). The new legislation was adopted in the first reading. Although the constitution stipulates that Kyrgyz is the state language and ⤵️

Russia is official, the dominant language in parliament appears to be Russian. The de-Russification of the activity of the Kyrgyz legislator is not only a linguistic measure but a shift of the political elites towards linguistic sovereignty.⤵️

Some could see in it the echo of decolonization, triggered by the Russian aggression against Ukraine, which was motivated, and others by the protection of Russian-speakers.

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