J. like JJ 🇫🇷 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jan 29, 2023 14 tweets 9 min read Read on X
1/ Part 2 -
Operational situation update/ #russian_invasion in #Ukraine on January 29, 2022
Datas/figures.
first thing first today's recap :
2/ Week / (weeks reminder) recap
3/ early weeks recap & month recap
(NB. the weeks are from Sunday to Sunday but the month recap is from 24th (first day of war to 23rd of the following month)
4/ weeks before reaching critical limits for current RU army - at this format-
(i take 5800 MBTs bc 15% to add and extra 10-15% for repair = approx 7.6k to 8.5k)

Slope is quite steep this week directly acting on the current global stat (like in the scheme if you need info)
5/ i do not have updated graphics but here some to help you visualize some datas if need be
(with the help of Peter!)
6/ if needed some materials and complementary informations here as a reminder (unroll the thread)
7/ Also for the people telling "yeah but Russians are still advancing" etc etc - and before my next Macro analysis...
just watch this map again... &consider to get OUT of some very closed-up/magnified "maps" sometimes.
nothing is going wrong
8/ considering the Gigantic amount of men and materials Ru have poured in, during these last months.
on the contrary .. it shows how Ukraine is managing really well (considering who they are facing) what is happening now.
also consider this 1km/month on the "worst" area.
9/ recap of the day from gen staff
to date - i still need to do a thread about missiles & what might certainly remains as twittos claims r clearly BS & not even able to understand the com tactics of SBU/Budanov when he "presumably" assess the remaining stock or production rate.
10/ to make you smile, some VERY important graphic concerning the famous #Leopard2 😅😅😅👋
11/ Also did you know that #Bakhmut existed over 100 years before #USA was established?
Here's the map of Cossack city and fortress of #Bakhmut in 1618 (from @EuromaidanPR )
and also this en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of…
taken in April 2014 - back to Ukr in July !!
So keep cool people !
12/ #Leopard2 again
13/ ok and last but not least (as usual)
i'm just going to paste here the datas of killed in ukraine (we could also apply a safe 15%-20% on top of that, as we always have some delay to actual and real reports)
14/ "Leur ais-je donner assez de support de réflexion?...J'espère qu'ils auront bien compris tous les tableaux, il ne manquerait plus qu'ils me demandent des infos jusqu'à minuit.... "

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More from @HeliosRunner

Mar 1
Incredible leaks regarding #Taurus
1/
2/ #TaurusLeak reveals the complete breach of all secured protocol / incompetence of German officers in the #Luftwaffe - German gov is really mad about it right now. Also all intel services are all hands on deck right now.
3/ so allegedly "being wiretapped, conspiratorial telephone conference by the Bundeswehr leadership, they plan to trick the federal government regarding the 🇩🇪 cruise missile in order to bring about delivery. Goal? Among other things, the attack on the Crimean Bridge" (sic)
Read 24 tweets
Feb 6
voilà voilà... j'en ai encore parlé hier soir
(j'ai juste supprimer le post hier soir parce que j'avais trop de messages, mais il semble maintenant que tout le monde va être au courant)
Par contre bcp de choses sont encore à régler. ce n'est pas facile surtout en ce moment.. 1/ Image
2/ Paris et Kiev finalisent les préparatifs de la visite du président @EmmanuelMacron en #Ukraine, en se concentrant sur un accord pour que la France fournisse des avions de combat multirôles #Mirage 2000D. Le ministre ukrainien de la Défense, Rustem #Umerov, est attendu
@EmmanuelMacron 3/ cette semaine à Paris pour finaliser les accords avec le ministre français de la Défense @SebLecornu . Le plan initial prévoyait le transfert de six avions, mais ce nombre est désormais porté à 12. La France recherche également des missiles et des solutions de formation, avec
Read 5 tweets
Nov 8, 2023
1/ #Gaza map update #IDF despite really hard battle involving dismounting troops/Spec forces at night r allegedly breaking through to Gaza City center, but as we can't confirm it, we can still produce this map that is made on only verified locations (blue limits for IDF)
#Israel Image
2/ from yesterday evening. i also had direct infos that the area between the north south axis, west to the defensive walls (stripe areas) are indeed totally under complete surveillance. What i was just not able to figure out is if there is a junction with troops coming from Beit Image
3/ hanoun or not. Also infos from journalist i've translate seems to confirms all the geoloc that were assessed to make this map.

Actually what an israeli journalist said on the ground is that all the main axis are AT least under direct control up to 500m to be able to interdict
Read 14 tweets
Nov 7, 2023
1/ So actually here is how we have to "read it" :
"i don't give a damn fck abt palestinians, but as long as they all play in my hands (incl south Liban & Syria & Iran & Yemen) & that American are forced to stall their help toward Ukraine... i'm just super happy you idiots"
2/ there is no "friends" (out of best friends) for him, there is right now a HUGE amount of cards he can plays to create greater problems for people who are helping Ukraine.
between dozen millions of hebrew/jews around the world and BILLIONS of people he might use for his plan
3/ the "thinking process" was quite easy .
also never forget that there are lots of muslims in Russia and he certainly does not want right now, any problems with people he might need to send to the front line in Ukraine in order to serve as canon fodder Image
Read 10 tweets
Nov 3, 2023
#Gaza map update. #IDF has almost reached the main points of entry south of Gaza City, severing main LOCS to the southern Gaza Strip. Up north the situation is not that clear, but despite tremendous hard battles, it seems that they are able to still move forward
#Israel #Hamas Image
2/ in the meantime in lalaland Image
3/ also i do believe talking to a good friend of mine...
that this famous map with tunnels' sketches is really for kids
not saying they don't exist of course, but that the actual lines are really not looking like that ! Image
Read 18 tweets
Oct 28, 2023
1/ Tellement de choses à dire.... difficile de savoir par ou commencer.
en tout cas une chose est sure : il n'a pas de F-35 et le matos US du type F-16 serait vite inutilisable s'il veut jouer au con, et d'autre part, ses S-400... c'est de la m...
soit il n'a que de la gueule et
2/ c'est pour jouer la carte "oui mon peuple je t'ai compris et tu as milles fois raisons.." et il ne fait rien derrière que de gesticuler. Soit il ne veut pas passer pour une simple grande gueule et là concrètement il peut y avoir "un peu de sport" en perspective pour ts les
3/ occidentaux.

on pourrait se dire que c'est pour mettre une pression enorme sur Israel pour qu'ils arrêtent assez vite les bombardements et redonne des accès humanitaire etc
mais il faut tout de même écouter son discours
Read 14 tweets

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