1/🧵My crystal ball says this will soon be a US headline, “Biden clarifies his ‘no’ on F-16s, opening the door for fighters to #Ukraine.” Here’s why. Wanna bet? @MriyaReport
2/5 His ‘no’ is likely European ally pressure, with a ‘let’s see what the Tanks do.’ Militarily speaking, it’s horribly ‘piece meal’ and a dumb strategy, but such are the challenges of civilian control of militaries.
3/5 There’s little bipartisanism in DC, but F-16s is one issue Senate leaders agree on. Biden can’t ignore the bipartisan push for F-16s for long, as it will resonate louder over time.
4/5 The US Defense Industries have leverage, a massive amount. They’ll not sit patiently while other nation’s fighters join the fight in #Ukraine before US assets.
5/5 My bold prediction is that today’s #WhiteHouse press conference will already start to soften the comment.

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More from @JeffFisch

Feb 1
1/4 🧵PM #Sunak - This is a crap answer. The notion that #F16’s / 4th Gen fighters are too advanced for this war against #Russia is ludicrous. Here’s why:

@MriyaReport @BalticSnowTiger @YAmzallagh Image
2/4 For nearly a decade, DC, London and other NATO capitals validated the need for next Gen fighters (#F35) on the tech advanced #S300/#S400 air defense threat - both present in the #Ukraine war.
3/4 hence, if politicians remained consistent, they’d argue the #F16 and other 4th Gen fighters are NOT tech advanced enough for the #Ukraine theater with S300/400, as it’s the same argument they used to spend billions to fund the #LightningII.
Read 5 tweets
Jan 9
1/5 🧵#Turkey's #defense industry is rapidly developing the TF-X #fighter. Arguably, this generates some interesting questions. Thread below....
2/5 Both #Turkey's TF-X and #England's #Tempest future #fighter began in 2015. #Defense industry leader, #BAE, is significantly involved in both projects. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BAE_Syste….
3/5 TF-X prototype rollout is scheduled Mar 2023. The #Tempest? Four years later. Given the similar start date, TF-X is moving extremely fast. Odd, given #BAE is on both. Why is TF-X so fast? aerotime.aero/articles/31632…
Read 5 tweets
Oct 28, 2022
1/ #Russia’s fighters now carry the newer #R37 / #AA13. This is not a menace, but rather another act of desperation. Here’s why:
2/ The #Axehead is a massive (limited maneuver) #missile designed to shoot down US #C4ISR aircraft (#AWACS, #RivetJoint, #CompassCall). Shooting these missiles at maneuverable #Ukraine fighters is a waste.
3/ The #AA13 #axehead missile looks much like the old US #AIM54 Phoenix missile. There’s a reason the US ditched short / fat missiles for long / thin ones. They stink against maneuverable targets.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 28, 2022
1/ #Russia claims modified #Mi8 helos are their new EW powerhouse #jammer. I don’t buy the hype, you shouldn’t either. Here’s why: thedrive.com/the-war-zone/t…
2/ If 2 #EW #jamming pods is all it takes to overwhelm the #S300 #S400, then the #DoD’s $$trillions in F35 and other #SEAD investments were based on damn near criminally incorrect intelligence. Yes, Intel may have gotten it a bit wrong, but not this much.
3/ Re-read the #S300 / #S400 capabilities #Russia marketed in their sales pitch for years. Either those claims are wrong or this capability is not accurate. Both cannot be true... but both can be a lie.
Read 5 tweets

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