1/🧵My crystal ball says this will soon be a US headline, “Biden clarifies his ‘no’ on F-16s, opening the door for fighters to #Ukraine.” Here’s why. Wanna bet? @MriyaReport
2/5 His ‘no’ is likely European ally pressure, with a ‘let’s see what the Tanks do.’ Militarily speaking, it’s horribly ‘piece meal’ and a dumb strategy, but such are the challenges of civilian control of militaries.
3/5 There’s little bipartisanism in DC, but F-16s is one issue Senate leaders agree on. Biden can’t ignore the bipartisan push for F-16s for long, as it will resonate louder over time.
4/5 The US Defense Industries have leverage, a massive amount. They’ll not sit patiently while other nation’s fighters join the fight in #Ukraine before US assets.
5/5 My bold prediction is that today’s #WhiteHouse press conference will already start to soften the comment.
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1/4 🧵PM #Sunak - This is a crap answer. The notion that #F16’s / 4th Gen fighters are too advanced for this war against #Russia is ludicrous. Here’s why:
2/4 For nearly a decade, DC, London and other NATO capitals validated the need for next Gen fighters (#F35) on the tech advanced #S300/#S400 air defense threat - both present in the #Ukraine war.
3/4 hence, if politicians remained consistent, they’d argue the #F16 and other 4th Gen fighters are NOT tech advanced enough for the #Ukraine theater with S300/400, as it’s the same argument they used to spend billions to fund the #LightningII.
3/5 TF-X prototype rollout is scheduled Mar 2023. The #Tempest? Four years later. Given the similar start date, TF-X is moving extremely fast. Odd, given #BAE is on both. Why is TF-X so fast? aerotime.aero/articles/31632…
3/ The #AA13#axehead missile looks much like the old US #AIM54 Phoenix missile. There’s a reason the US ditched short / fat missiles for long / thin ones. They stink against maneuverable targets.
2/ If 2 #EW#jamming pods is all it takes to overwhelm the #S300#S400, then the #DoD’s $$trillions in F35 and other #SEAD investments were based on damn near criminally incorrect intelligence. Yes, Intel may have gotten it a bit wrong, but not this much.
3/ Re-read the #S300 / #S400 capabilities #Russia marketed in their sales pitch for years. Either those claims are wrong or this capability is not accurate. Both cannot be true... but both can be a lie.