Thread by @GordianKnotRay

1/What exactly happened between #China and the #Philippines last week in the W. Philippine Sea? Why are these two PH Coast Guard ships now sitting off the coast of Pag-Asa (Thitu) Island? And how does it all relate to the strange journey of the BRP Andres Bonifacio? [Thread 1/14]

2/First some background: PH Coast Guard ship BRP Teresa Magbanua (MRRV-9701) was acquired from #Japan in 2021. It was recently deployed in support of Philippine fishermen near Ayungin (Second Thomas) Shoal after reports of PRC harassment there. [2/14]
manilatimes.net/2023/01/22/new…

3/At about that time (22 Jan/1330L) the BRP Magbanua's automated information system (AIS) stopped transmitting while still east of Palawan, indicating the @coastguardph ship likely did not want its movements tracked during its West Philippine Sea operations. [3/14]

4/Also at that time (22-23 Jan) #China's Maritime Militia ships Qiong Lin Yu 19002 and Qiong Sansha Yu 00001 arrived from Whitsun Reef and Scarborough Shoal, respectively, to reinforce the PRC's forward base at Mischief Reef ~30km west of Ayungin (Second Thomas) Shoal. [4/14]

5/After a week of relative quiet, 220 km to the NE on 31 Jan, 3 PRC Maritime Militia ships departed their base at Subi Reef & redeployed to a location ~6km W of the Philippine-held Pag-Asa (Thitu) Island. This is not uncommon, but noteworthy based on what happened next. [5/14]

6/At the same time the Philippine Navy ship BRP Andres Bonifacio was starting its journey from Palawan to a point SE of Loaita Bank, or about 60km SE of Pag-Asa. During this trip the Bonifacio would be "monitored and tailed" by 4 PRC ships. [6/14]
cnnphilippines.com/news/2023/2/4/…

7/BRP Bonifacio loitered 6 hours on 1 Feb near Loaita Bank, while 2 of 3 PRC militia ships near Pag-Asa returned to Subi Reef. #China Coast Guard ship 5304 then passed within 8 km of Bonifacio en route to Mischief Reef. Bonifacio left immediately after this for Palawan. [7/14]

8/On 2 Feb, #China Coast Guard 5205 (here labeled "Unknown") left Mischief Reef & went to Loaita Bank, seeming to survey the scene of Bonifacio's activity the day prior. 5205 then returned to Mischief after following Bonifacio's general path east as far as Jackson Atoll. [8/14]

9/On the morning of 3 Feb, Philippine Coast Guard ship BRP Malapascua left Buliluyan Port in Palawan, & after briefly loitering NW of Loaita Bank, proceeded to Pag-Asa (Thitu) Island, arriving around 1600L on 4 Feb at Pag-Asa--where events had taken bizarre turn ... [9/14]

10/The day prior (2 Feb) between 1400-2000L, the other 2 PRC Maritime Militia ships departed Subi & joined their companion west of Pag-Asa Island--then were suddenly joined by a mysterious 4th ship, the "Gui Fang Yu 93857", which turns on its AIS transmitter at 2020L. (10/14)

11/The next day (3 Feb) at 1500L, before the arrival of BRP Malapascua from Palawan, the same 2 Maritime Militia ships return to Subi Reef, leaving the mysterious "Gui Fang Yu 93857" alone with the remaining militia vessel, Qiong Sansha Yu 00219 [11/14]

12/Later on 3 Feb at 1840L, the mystery ship turns off its AIS. ~12 hours after that (4 Feb/0650L), BRP Teresa Magbanua (which was last seen 22 Jan east of Palawan) abruptly appears on AIS less than 7 km from the former position of the now-vanished "Gui Fang Yu 93857". [12/14]

13/Summarizing where we stand now: BRP Teresa Magbanua suddenly appeared at 4/0650L, but again turned off its AIS at ~04/2000L; BRP Malapascua arrived from Palawan at 4/1600L; and 2 PRC Maritime Militia ships are posted to the west, one within an uncomfortable 2.5 km. [13/14]

14/This entire latter sequence is surreal, & whatever happened requires a more complete explanation than I can provide. I invite your thoughts as I leave you with this image from @planet, taken 4 Feb/1030L, of the probable BRP Teresa Malapascua anchored off Pag-Asa Island [14/14]