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Feb 6 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
#Modinomics and #NewIndia #Intellectuals keep harping that US is against China along with all that Rhetoric but then the DATA says otherwise… Image
And this is the China Trade with Europe despite the Russia China Brotherhood Image
Meanwhile...
And See how that flows into Earnings

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More from @TheFactFindr

Fact Finder, The 🇮🇳 Profile picture
Feb 9
#IMPORTANT The #MSCI Weight Reduction in #AdaniGroup is Just the Start of more events to come.

I highlighted the likelihood of #MSCI in the #THREAD BELOW
1/n what did MSCI Say ?
"MSCI has received feedback from a range of market participants concerning the eligibility"
“Characteristics of certain investors have sufficient uncertainty that they should no longer be designated as free float pursuant to our methodology.”
=> basically MSCI felt there is truth in what #Hindenburg portrayal of a "Close Relationship" with the FIIs
MSCI Also Said
"This determination has triggered a free float review of the Adani Group securities" which will be informed in Mid-feb and implemented by End-feb
Read 17 tweets
Fact Finder, The 🇮🇳 Profile picture
Feb 8
I personally know of a Operations consultant- a super guy - who was working on ACC and AMBUJA cost cutting programs for over 30 months starting 2019… Covid didn’t stop him but Covid just delayed his program which was to be taking just 18 months.
He was deputed by the previous CEO of HOLCIM India and the consultant worked on both ACC and AMBUJA. In his view ACCs plants had a structural problem which would keep the Gap between ACC and say ultra tech. So am surprised that after he left this COST improvement came in 6 months
There needs to be more explaining on what drove these sharp cost improvements.
Read 9 tweets
Fact Finder, The 🇮🇳 Profile picture
Feb 7
#SHOCKER !!

#Budget2023 #CAPEX growth of 30% Year over Year is just a game of #Smoke & #Mirrors (the hallmark of #Modinomics) .... if you recall, I mentioned that "Devil Lies in the Detail"
Entire Story in 1 Chart. Combines Central Govt & PSU Capex excluding dirty tricks. Image
@nsitharaman budget numbers for CAPEX includes items below
1) 50yr Loans to the States (much of this is consumption by state & double counted)
2) Loans to Food Corp India (Rations & MSP)
3) Capital Infusion is Loss making PSUs to pay Salaries & O/p Losses (BSNL, Air India) Image
These 3 items are NOT Capex .... so when does an Apples to Apples comparison, these adjustments needs to be made...

In short Central Govt & Off-balance sheet or PSU Capex is ONLY 3.8% of GDP (Lower than pre-covid) vs say 4.5% of GDP in FY10 Image
Read 9 tweets
Fact Finder, The 🇮🇳 Profile picture
Feb 7
Booking my profits on Adani Ports. It’s given a decent 28% return on my avg entry price. Am happy.
Not a stock reco. Just my thoughts
Honestly I made a mistake buying AdaniPorts since ideally I think it can still go back to 15X multiple if the MSCI action happens for the group. I got an opportunity to Get out and I did. it’s the ONLY CF generating Co with a solid moat.
Read 4 tweets
Fact Finder, The 🇮🇳 Profile picture
Feb 6
MSCI China vs MSCI India..
The MSCI China Index’s members have seen about 10% increase in forward earnings estimates since end-October. India has witnessed a mixed bag.
Consumer vs basic materials
In China, HSBC’s Van der Linde expects health care and consumer discretionary profits to grow by 61% and 40% in 2023, respectively, compared with a 6% growth for basic materials (Metals, Cement & Chemicals).
Chinese Accounted for 33% of European Luxury sales pre-Covid .... it fell to 17% in 2022. China Accounts for 18% for consumer durables and 10% for household items for European Cos
Read 5 tweets
Fact Finder, The 🇮🇳 Profile picture
Jan 29
#AdaniGroup cannot file a case against @HindenburgRes for two reasons
1) Report was published in US. A case filed in India, it will be Transferred to the US under law.

Adani can’t risk providing Documentation for 270+ Entities plus Related Party Overseas Entities & 7 FPIs
Which might be made party to the case

2) There is nothing Wrong with what the Hindenburg Report disclosed. It’s contains Public Information as well as Investigative Journalism obtained at their one cost

PRECISELY why #AdaniGroup is YET to file case against #HindenbergResearch
One of the MOST important accusations of made in the #HindenburgReport is that Adani Listed Cos, Adani Family & People acting in concert are round tripping money from Adani back into Adani via FPIs. In the #AdaniGroup410page Response, they have NOT ADDRESSED THIS
Read 6 tweets

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