Update: 09.02.2023 CATDAT #Earthquake Model for #Turkey and #Syria:
Median Fatality estimate: 52,355 (Range: 23,284 to 105,671)
Unfortunately we have seen another day of increased damage patterns in various cities (mostly to the south) and some refinements to the model.
Median Fatality estimate: 52,355 (Range: 23,284 to 105,671)
Unfortunately we have seen another day of increased damage patterns in various cities (mostly to the south) and some refinements to the model.
We have had some reductions to intensities in the NE, NW & Centre.... However the south has gone up significantly again.
We have also changed population/building occupancy statistics in Syria.
We have also changed population/building occupancy statistics in Syria.
Although the % of destroyed/severely damaged buildings is small in each city when looking at satellite and drone imagery, the sheer size of the damage zone means many pancake collapses have occurred.
Most fatalities will have occurred in these multi-storey apartment buildings.
Most fatalities will have occurred in these multi-storey apartment buildings.
Thanks UNOSAT, COPERNICUS, Maxar & others for all the satellite imagery to aid improving the estimates of intensity; as well as to the many Turkish, Syrian, International agencies as well as citizen scientists giving their insights, and of course everyone on the ground! 🖤🕯️🤞
For the first time, the upper bound estimate has hit over 100k, a function of the very high ground motions (PGV) - higher than Tohoku, most of Kobe etc.; exceeding EQ resistant code levels significantly, some poor construction in a few bldgs, the weather, response and Syria.
Unless major changes occur, this will be our last update to the model but will of course continue to provide analysis, statistics, insights, news regarding the #earthquakes unless additional #earthquakes occur.
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